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Dolphin ResearchSep 28 at 10:31 AM

Muse goes viral: Is this the CPU's ChatGPT moment?

Meta launched Muse on Sep. 8. Each Muse runs on a dedicated virtual machine, the Muse Secure VM, which stores both the agent and user data. Long-running jobs keep executing even after the app is closed, then re-engage the user when something changes or an approval is needed.

The product went viral, briefly topping the US mobile download charts. For details on Muse and its implications for Meta, see Dolphin Research's take 'Muse goes viral: real inflection or hype peak?'...

AI Agent 一
ohinResearch OpenClaw Muse Nature 10 Open-source development framework Commercia
CPU GPU 三
Pure Inference Agent Orchestration User Goal User Request CPU: Loop until done P+14
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Dolphin ResearchSep 23 at 12:54 PM

Muse went viral, is META at a real inflection or just a head fake?

$Meta Platforms(META.US) Since Muse's US launch on Sept 8, it has been live for over two weeks. Dolphin Research shared an initial quick take, but as user reviews piled up, interest stayed high in recent days. As of today, Muse still ranks No.1 on the iOS US free download chart.

The buzz has spilled over into Muse's back-end supply chain and front-end commercial ecosystem, also stirring price action in related names. Today we will focus on a deeper look at the product. A review of the back-end supply chain shifts is coming soon.

17:10 95 L Muse from Meta W Your personal AI agent Open 28K RATINGS AGE RATING C
58 53 Claude Opus A\ 5.5(max with fallback) 53 Claude Fable A 5.1(max with fallb
Personal AI assistant comparison Platform Meta Muse Instinct OpenAI ChatGPT Grok
User's VA External Services Ingress - TLS + Noise User control Inference proxy n+2
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Dolphin ResearchJul 30 at 01:56 AM

META's Awkward Spot: Big Promises, Big Spend, No Payoff

Hi everyone, this is Dolphin Research. As the spark for the latest 'excess compute, supply chain peak' narrative, $Meta Platforms(META.US) posted results likely to disappoint all sides.

For Meta investors, Q2 revenue growth and the next-quarter guide both missed. Opex rose on litigation expenses, pressuring earnings and rapidly draining FCF and net cash.

For supply-chain investors, the full-year Capex guide only lifted the lower end of the range, well below aggressive expectations. Although Zuckerberg still says compute remains tight...

oMe etc
Meta 1(META.O) D) Financial Results USD in 100 mn 1Q25A 2Q25A 3Q25A 4Q25A 1Q26A
Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task 图 目 Artificial Analysis
USD, in 100 millions 33.1% 28.0% 700 600 27.3% 24.7% 202% 23.2% 484 23.8% 6 500 +11
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Dolphin ResearchJul 29 at 10:45 PM

META (Minutes: No 2027 Capex guidance; racing to build compute capacity in the next two years.

Meta 2Q26 Earnings call

MetaAl
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Dolphin ResearchJul 10 at 11:40 AM

Excess subleasing vs. aggressive buildouts: Is META's 'split personality' a blatant open play?

After $Meta Platforms(META.US) began weighing compute leasing, it stoked worries that the compute supply chain may be peaking. While the market debated whether this was a stopgap or a long-term strategy, Meta answered with three concrete moves: it is serious about the compute biz.

Expanding data centers is the most straightforward prep. Mass-producing in-house ASICs aims to cut cost and lift ROI.

The newly launched LLM, Muse Spark 1.1, is the true upside surprise in Dolphin Research's view. These three changes will likely push near-term Capex higher...

oMe etc
Agent JobBench MCP Atlas DeepSearchQA 60 100 100 54.7 88.1 87.8 48.4 82.2 82.2 8
OSWorld 2.0 BabyVision 80 50 40 70 30 60 ● Muse Spark 1.1 ● Muse Spark 1.1 20 ●
骨 ClaudeDevs A @ClaudeDevs We've reset 5-hour and weekly rate limits for all use+7
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Dolphin ResearchJul 6 at 11:29 AM

AI compute too costly: Is META upending the game?

Last week, Bloomberg reported that $Meta Platforms(META.US) is building a cloud infra biz and plans to lease compute externally.

The single headline slammed Neocloud—an AI hardware vendor heavily exposed to Meta—and kicked off an 'excess compute' narrative. Bearish sentiment spread, and even storage names with the strongest recent fundamentals got hit by panic selling.

Bottom line, Dolphin Research thinks: (1) judging by the day’s drawdown, the selloff likely overshot; yesterday’s move looked like a chain reaction in a crowded long tape once signs emerged that a short thesis might be getting validated. (2) At the same time...

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Hyperscaler capex is on trend to outpace their cash inflows by the end of 2026 U
Capex from Hyperscalers and Neoclouds $bn 1,400 DolphinReseak AWS Google Meta IM
Meta Cash Flow Breakdown Core operations External investment Capex (SW & HW) Sha+8
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Dolphin ResearchApr 30 at 11:26 AM

Meta (Trans): AI LT vision is not productivity tools, but broad empowerment of everyday users.

The following is a transcript of the FY26Q1 earnings call for $Meta Platforms(META.US), compiled by Dolphin Research.

For our earnings take, please see '《单腿走路...》'.

oMe etc
Meta (META.O) Financial Results USD in ,00mn 1Q24A 2Q24A 3Q24A 4Q24A 1Q25A 2Q25A
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Dolphin ResearchApr 30 at 11:04 AM

Single-track strategy limits Meta AI's imagination

Hi everyone, this is Dolphin Research! $Meta Platforms(META.US) Q1 itself was not the problem; the issue is that the new guidance failed to ease fears of margin erosion. That diverged from pre-earnings chatter about tighter cost controls, which had led investors to expect spending cuts.

At bottom, investors are again losing patience because there is still no visible second growth curve to monetize the AI story. Specifically, we note:

1) No spending pullback; more investment ahead. META raised full-year Capex guidance by $10bn to $125–145bn, driven by higher prices for memory and other components...

Meta A
Meta 1(META.O) Financial Results USD in ,00mn 1Q24A 2Q24A 3Q24A 4Q24A 1Q25A 2Q25
USD, in 100 millions 33.1% 700 600 27.3% 24.7% 262% 23.2% 484 475 23.8% 500 22.1
Source: Company data, Dolphin Research+14
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Dolphin ResearchFeb 9 at 10:34 AM

AI Endgame: Power Calls the Shots?---

Is North America's power shortage a near- to mid-term supply-demand mismatch? Or a long-term structural issue?

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品 New York 正 nVIDIA. San Francisco 彩 H100 Dallas New York
US Annual Power usage Unit: Twh Power Usage yoy% 2021-2024:3-year CAGR1.5% 4.500
Commercial Sector Retail Price MW TNO'SNON -NV'寸NON DolphinResearch S'寸NON n erc
EEI's Forecast for U.S. Power Grid Investment Unit: $bn 50 45 40 DolphinResearch+20
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Dolphin ResearchJan 30 at 04:27 AM

META (Follow-up call Trans): Most capex translates into post-2027 capacity

Below is Dolphin Research's summary of the analyst follow-up session with $Meta Platforms(META.US) after the earnings call. The meeting was conducted as a Q&A.

Q: The European Commission deems Meta's paid model non-compliant. Are there new EU compliance standards for product updates, launch timing, and pricing?

Also, how will you address revenue and cost impacts in 2026? For instance, could you reduce personalized ads? A: Dec 2025...

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