TSMC
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Dolphin Research

TSM: All Execution, No Hype — Can It Lead the Pack?

TSMC released its Q3 2026 results (quarter ended Sep 2026) before the U.S. market open on Oct 15, 2026 Beijing time.

Highlights follow.

Key takeaways: 1) Core focus areas for TSMC: a) as $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) discloses monthly revenue, GPM is the key metric. GPM was 66.4%, down 130bps QoQ, slightly below cons. at 66.8%.

By breakdown (converted to 12-inch equivalents). ① Per-wafer ASP was $10,438 per wafer...

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TSMC Gross Profit Composition(12"-equiv.Wafer) Gross Profit per Wafer Vari able
TSMC Capex 18.00 F 16.00 IphinResearch DolphinResear iResearch Capital Expenditu
TSMC Total Revenue 50.00 phineResearch DolphinResear Total Revenue(in US$ billio+8
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Dolphin Research

TSM (Trans): Won't leave money on the table; aims to win every possible biz.

Q4 revenue guidance is $53.3bn at the midpoint (+14% QoQ), with full-year USD revenue growth around 44%. However, a steep 2nm ramp and dilution from overseas fabs push the Q4 GPM midpoint down to 66%, and the overseas dilution is expected to widen by 300–400bps over the next few years. The company is adding a second 3nm fab in Tainan and evaluating capacity expansion in Texas, noting that AI demand still far exceeds supply.

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Dolphin Research

TSM (Trans): FY growth 40%+; capex hike remains prudent.

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of TSMC FY26 Q2 (fiscal Q2 2026) earnings call. For the earnings analysis, see 'No blowout, just so-so: Can TSMC still carry the AI narrative?'

I. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) earnings highlights recap — 1) Shareholder returns: TWD 467 bn in cash dividends in 2025 (+28.6% YoY), with full-year DPS of TWD 18. In 2026, DPS will rise to TWD 24...

ts S1 台湾積體電路製造股份有限公司 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM.N)26Q2 Financial Performance (in
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Dolphin Research

No 'blowout'; just 'ok.' Can TSM still carry the AI narrative?

TSM reported Q2 2026 results on Jul 16, 2026 (Beijing time) during U.S. pre-market hours. The quarter covered the period ended Jun 2026.

1) Revenue: $40.2bn, up 12% QoQ, near the high end of guidance ($39–40.2bn). Growth was led by AI silicon, with most core customers' AI chips migrating to 3nm (N3). On a 12-inch equivalent basis, wafer shipments were 4,336k...

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM.N)26Q2 Financial Performance (in
TSMC Capex olphinResearch DolphinResearc DolphinResearch Capital Expenditures(in
TSMC CoWoS Shipment olphinResearch TSMC Total CoWoS(K wafer per year) yoy 3,000 +10
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Dolphin Research

TSM (Trans): Stays 'cautious', modestly lifts FY guide

Below are Dolphin Research's call notes for $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) FY26Q1. For our earnings analysis, please see 'TSMC: AI's true overlord — who can challenge it?'.

Key highlights are as follows. 1) Shareholder returns — the company pledged to steadily raise DPS on both an annual and quarterly basis. In Q1, it declared an NT$130bn cash dividend for 2025 Q2. 2) Guidance — Q2 revenue is guided to $39.0-40.2bn (+10% QoQ ...).

ts S1 台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd.
Taiwan Se emiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSM.N)26Q1 Financial P (in US$ bill
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Dolphin Research

TSM (Trans): Capex to rise by tens of billions YoY, a decision made after talks with downstream customers.

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of the Q4 2025 earnings call for $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US). For our earnings analysis, please see 'TSMC: the real heavyweight in AI — who would say no?'.

Key takeaways from the call are summarized below. We highlight capex plans and spending mix.

a) Capex: for 2026, raised to $52-56bn (+$11-15bn YoY), vs prior street $48-50bn. Allocation: 70-80% for advanced nodes, ~10% for specialty technologies...

ts SI 台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd.
T 「aiwan S an Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSM.N)25Q4 Financial Pe fo e (
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Dolphin Research

TSM: The Real Boss of AI—Who Would Say No?

TSM released Q4 2025 results (quarter ended Dec 2025) on Jan 15, 2026 Beijing time, during Longbridge U.S. pre-mkt. Key takeaways: 1) Revenue: Q4 revenue was $33.7bn (+1.9% QoQ), driven by new iPhone shipments and rising AI chip demand.

Despite a notable FX headwind from USD strength, revenue beat the high end of guidance ($32.2–33.4bn). On a TWD basis, revenue rose 5.7% QoQ...

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T 「aiwan S an Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSM.N)25Q4 Financial Pe fo e (
TSMC CoWoS Shipment olphinResearch TSMC Total CoWoS(K wafer per year) yc P) 1.80
2024 2025 2026 2027 Product 10 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q B300+8
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Dolphin Research

TSMC (Minutes): 2nm mass production by the end of the year, increased investment next year

The following is the transcript of TSMC's Q3 2025 earnings call. For an analysis of the financial report, please refer to "The 'Dominant' TSMC: The Strongest King in the AI Era?" 1. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) Key Financial Data Review Financial Performance Revenue: Q3 revenue reached $33.1 billion (in USD), a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.1%. In New Taiwan Dollars, it increased by 6% quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to strong demand for advanced process technologies. Profitability: Gross margin increased by 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 59.5%...

ts SI 台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd.
Taiwan Se emiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM.N)25Q3 Financial P e (in US$ b
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Dolphin Research

"Dominant" TSMC, is it the strongest king in the AI era?

TSMC released its Q3 2025 financial report (ending September 2025) before the U.S. stock market opened on the afternoon of October 16, 2025, Beijing time. Key points are as follows: 1. Revenue: TSMC's revenue for this quarter was $33.1 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.1%, mainly driven by the stocking of electronic products such as iPhones and the growing demand for AI chips. The company's revenue for this quarter exceeded the upper limit of the guidance range ($31.8-33.0 billion), partly due to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar. In terms of New Taiwan dollars, the company's quarterly revenue increased by about 6%...

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Taiwan Se emiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM.N)25Q3 Financial P e (in US$ b
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Data Center Total 4 Capex unit:100mn/$ MEIA Alphabet Microsoft Amazon Total 4 Ca+9