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Spotify
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Dolphin ResearchAug 4 at 01:37 PM

SPOT: Muted print; story priced in, waiting for the next catalyst

$Spotify(SPOT.US) Q2 results were mixed, with performance broadly in line with expectations.

For Q3, guidance suggests a slight beat on revenue and monetization, but platform traffic and profitability look softer than expected.

Specifically: 1) Price hikes are taking effect: increases across core U.S./Europe rolled out early in the year are now showing through, with paid ARPPU up 6% YoY. The anticipated user backlash was milder than feared, as Q2 still added 7 mn premium users. With both volume and price holding up, subscription revenue rose 16%...

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Spotify Premium ARPU trend (毛 毛) 5.0 arch Monthly premium ARPU YoY growth 10.0%
Spotify net adds of premium subscribers by region millions 5 DolphinResearch Eur
Spotify net adds of MAU 上 by region mihions 25 DolphinResearch Europe Noth Ameri+6
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Dolphin ResearchAug 4 at 01:36 PM

SPOT (Trans): Subs Top 300mn, Monetizing MAUs

Subscribers topped 300 mn. Revenue growth at cc rebounded to 15%, and GPM hit a new high of 33.4%.

However, the company is intentionally increasing ad load and adding friction to the free tier in EMs. As a result, Q3 MAU guidance is just 788 mn and GPM is guided to ease to 32.9%, while about €200 mn of incremental FY opex is being deployed to marketing and AI.

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Dolphin ResearchApr 28 at 05:07 PM

SPOT (Trans): User retention steady after price hikes; GPM affected by new investment

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of $Spotify(SPOT.US) FY26 Q1 earnings call. For the earnings read, cf. 'Spotify: expectation gaps and flaws triggered a plunge; streaming is now an old flame'.

Core highlights: 1) Shareholder returns — repurchased $361 mn in Q1, continuing to use buybacks to offset SBC dilution. Retired $1.5 bn of maturing convertibles with cash, with no new share issuance.

Cash and equivalents at quarter-end were $8.8 bn. Excluding lease liabilities, the company had no debt...

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Dolphin ResearchApr 28 at 04:05 PM

SPOT: Tumbles on expectations miss; streaming is yesterday's darling

$Spotify(SPOT.US) Q1 2026 results were released pre-market on Apr 28. The main issue was guidance: the market still wanted the classic streaming playbook of price hikes lifting margins.

However, in its Q2 outlook, net subscriber adds and GPM did not fully meet expectations, prompting a sell-off. Given management's consistent conservatism on guidance, Dolphin Research believes the actual shortfall may be less severe. The sharp swings in recent quarters have largely reflected the old problem of a rich multiple...

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Spotify net adds of MAU by region millions 25 DolphinResearch Europe Noth Americ+9
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Dolphin ResearchFeb 10 at 04:54 PM

SPOT (Trans): AI unlocks content at scale, boosts personalization and user engagement ---

Below is Dolphin Research's FY25 Q4 earnings call Trans for $Spotify(SPOT.US). For our earnings take, see 'Multiple narratives breaking down? Spotify remains small but beautiful'.

Core metrics recap. 1) In Q4, MAU net adds hit a quarterly record, taking total MAUs past 750mn. Q1 guidance: MAUs at 759mn and Premium subs at 293mn.

2) Q1 (2026) financial guidance. Total revenue: €4.5bn...

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Dolphin ResearchFeb 10 at 02:35 PM

Narratives crack and sentiment wobbles? SPOT remains the nimble, high‑quality play.

$Spotify(SPOT.US) Q4 2025 results were released pre-market on Feb 10, coming in slightly ahead of expectations. Ahead of the print, multiple negative narratives had driven sentiment to a low and the stock kept correcting. An error-free report alone was enough to ease some concerns.

1) GPM steadied nerves: Q4 GPM reached 33.1%, beating estimates. QoQ improvement was driven by price hikes, while the YoY expansion largely reflected lower royalties on bundled plans. However, the Q1 guide implies a slight QoQ dip, likely starting to reflect the impact of new licensing agreements...

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Spotify net adds of MAU by region millions 25 20 15 DolphinResearch Europe Noth +8
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Dolphin ResearchNov 4, 2025 at 05:20 PM

Spotify (Minutes): Currently focusing on further activating the user ecosystem

The following are the minutes of the 3Q25 earnings call for $Spotify(SPOT.US) compiled by Dolphin Research. For a review of the financial report, please refer to "Can Spotify's New Price Increase Cycle Fly Again?" 1. Key Financial Indicators 1. Third Quarter User Numbers: In the third quarter, our monthly active users increased by 17 million, reaching a total of 713 million, exceeding our target by 3 million. We also added 5 million net subscription users, bringing the total number of subscription users to 281 million, a year-on-year increase of 12%, in line with our expectations...

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Dolphin ResearchNov 4, 2025 at 02:13 PM

Can Spotify's new price hike cycle take off again?

$Spotify(SPOT.US) The Q3 2025 earnings report was released before the U.S. stock market opened on November 4th, with mixed performance. However, the market's main concern—profit margin—actually exceeded expectations, leading to a slightly positive market response. Specifically: 1. Profit margin exceeded expectations: Since the third quarter, Spotify has made numerous product changes (nearly 30 updates of various sizes), including lossless audio quality, playlist editing, messaging, personalized audio settings, and collaborations with Amazon Alexa and ChatGPT, etc...

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Spotify(SPOT.US) earnings results € in mn 1Q24A 2Q24A 3Q24A 4Q24A 1Q25A 2Q25A 3Q
Spotify net adds of MAU by region millions 25 xch Europe Noth America LatAM Row +8
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Dolphin ResearchJul 29, 2025 at 04:29 PM

Spotify (Minutes): Develop non-linear growth, with a greater focus on lifecycle value

The following are the minutes of the FY25 Q2 earnings call for $Spotify(SPOT.US) organized by Dolphin Research. For an interpretation of the earnings report, please refer to "Spotify: Price Hike Fails, Can High Valuation Still Hold?". 1. Review of Key Financial Information 1. Monthly Active Users (MAU) and Subscription Users This quarter, MAU increased by 18 million, reaching 696 million; net increase in subscription users was 8 million, bringing the total number of subscription users to 276 million, a year-on-year increase of 12%. 2. Total revenue was 4.2 billion euros, calculated at constant exchange rates...

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Dolphin ResearchJul 29, 2025 at 01:17 PM

Spotify: Price Increase Failure, Can High Valuation Still Hold?

$Spotify(SPOT.US) Q2 2025 earnings report was released before the US market opened on July 29th. The financial report once again fell short of expectations. Although the miss was significant, it was mainly due to external factors. Specifically: 1. Revenue fell short of guidance: Q2 revenue growth was only 10%, below both guidance and market expectations. However, there was a 5ppt foreign exchange headwind, and excluding this, the organic growth rate was 15%, higher than the original guidance of 14.2%, which is actually not bad. In comparison, the company's revenue guidance for Q3 appears somewhat weak, with the same 5ppt foreign exchange headwind...

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