I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.The current volatility in the gold market is essentially a pre-pricing of the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy. Since January, the New York futures gold has accumulated a 7% increase, marking the "best January performance" since 2015; the gold futures and spot price spread has further risen to $28, reaching the highest level since 2020
With the threat of tariffs from Trump likely to be implemented soon, concerns about economic growth and inflationary pressures are rapidly rising, prompting the gold market to start pricing in these factors in advance.
Since the beginning of 2025, gold has continued its upward trend, with New York futures gold ending January with a cumulative increase of 7%, closing at $2,812.50 per ounce, marking the "best January performance" since 2015.
Data shows a significant divergence in pricing between the New York and London gold markets, with the former's premium further expanding to $28 per ounce, the highest level since 2020. WisdomTree's data also indicates that US gold inventories have risen from less than 17 million troy ounces in October last year to over 23 million ounces, suggesting that traders are accelerating their accumulation of physical gold.
Some analysts believe that the widening gold basis indicates market anxiety over the uncertainty of tariff policies—even though the Trump administration has not yet implemented the tariff measures, the ambiguity of policy statements has triggered expectations of supply chain disruptions.
Concerns over Trump's tariff policies and gold arbitrage trading have jointly driven a "buying frenzy" for gold. Reports indicate that JP Morgan plans to deliver gold bars worth over $4 billion, with a total weight of 30 million ounces, which will be the second-largest delivery volume recorded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) since data collection began in 1994.
Axel Merk, president of Merk Investments, believes that the "rough" characteristics of Trump's policies exacerbate market confusion:
"Executive orders are often vague and may inadvertently affect the gold trade chain."
This means that, although reports suggest that the implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be delayed until March, the policy swings themselves have become an important component of risk premium.
Concerns over tariff policies are also magnified in the gold derivatives market, which has an average daily trading volume of $160 billion. Peter Grosskopf, chairman of Argo Digital Gold, pointed out:
"The paper gold market is far larger than physical trading, and any policy fluctuations could trigger violent price swings in contracts."
Nitesh Shah, head of commodity research at WisdomTree, analyzed that despite facing bearish factors such as a strengthening dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and the Israel-Palestine ceasefire agreement, the upward trend of gold precisely confirms its status as "the ultimate safe-haven asset":
"The market is hedging against the triple risks of geopolitical tensions, trade policies, and fiscal deficits."