Goldman Sachs 2026 Outlook: Buy gold to $4,900, sell oil to $50

The team at Goldman Sachs is out with their big 2026 Commodities Outlook, and they aren't mincing words. If you’re looking for a theme to hang your hat on next year, Daan Struyven and the team call it: "Ride the Power Race and Supply Waves."The gist? The US-China fight for AI and geopolitical dominance is going to light a fire under metals, while a massive wave of new supply is going to drown energy markets.We’ve seen this divergence already in 2025—precious metals ripping higher while oil lags—and Goldman thinks that trade will continue.Here are the 5 themes:Goldman’s Top Trade: Long Gold to $4,900/oz by Dec ’26Brent seen averaging just $56 in 2026The "LNG Supply Wave" is huge: US exports to surge 50% by 2030Copper to consolidate near $11,400 before the next AI leg higherBattery metals (lithium/nickel) to get crushed by Chinese supplyGoldman’s framework is simple. On the macro side, you have the "Power Race"—the US and China competing for AI supremacy and geopolitical leverage. That is bullish for strategic metals. On the micro side, you have "Supply Waves"—massive new capacity coming online in energy.Here is the breakdown of the actionable ideas:1. Buy GoldGoldman calls gold their "single favorite long commodity." They see prices hitting $4,900/oz by the end of 2026. The driver is central banks Goldman expects them to buy 70 tonnes per month in 2026. That is 4x the pre-2022 average.Goldman Sachs also notes that gold ETFs are just 0.17% of US private portfolios. We're not even close to crowded on the retail side yet.Sell OilThey see oil as a supply victim with brent averaging $56/bbl and WTI at $52/bbl next year (spot at $62 and $58, respectively). They say the supply wave will end in 2026 but it doesn't matter because the surplus is already here. Unless OPEC+ makes massive cuts or we see major disruptions (Russia/Iran), the inventory builds are going to weigh on price.3. Hold copperCopper has had a monster run -- one I've been forecasting for years -- but Goldman sees it taking a breather, consolidating around $11,400/t in 2026. They say not to 't get shaken out by the consolidation. They call copper their "favorite industrial metal" for the long run. The AI/Data center build-out and electrification demand will put a floor under prices. If China stockpiles strategic metals,, that floor gets even higher.4. Avoid battery metalsIf you're looking for a bottom in Lithium or Nickel, Goldman says keep waiting. China is heavily investing in overseas supply (Africa, Indonesia) to guarantee security for the AI/Tech race. That means a flood of supply is hitting the market regardless of price. They see lithium prices dropping another 25% by year-end 2026.5. Natural gas: global glut, but the US is differentThey see a multi-year LNG supply wave: global LNG supply +50% by 2030 vs 2024, implying lower ex-US gas prices over time. But because the US is the big supplier, LNG exports become export demand for US gas — tightening the US market enough to keep Henry Hub supported in 2026/27. That shows up in the spread call: TTF–Henry Hub narrowing from $8.40 to $5.40/$3.05 in 2026/27, with TTF at 29/20 EUR/MWh and US gas at $4.60/$3.80.Another notable tidbit is that they estimate US power demand growth near 3%, with many regions already at/below critical spare capacity levels.