Goldman Sachs has set the real-time risk premium for crude oil prices at $18 per barrel, which corresponds to the bank's assessment of the impact of a complete disruption of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for six weeks. In its report, it stated that this risk premium is equivalent to the market pricing a daily disruption of 2.3 million barrels of global supply over the course of a year. The premium assessment is based on a 15% increase in the WTI retail price from IG Group Ltd. over the weekend. Goldman Sachs stated, "While our forecasted risks tend to be upward, history shows that price spikes driven by geopolitical shocks and/or temporary supply disruptions may be short-lived."
