EdmundK

Core CPI at 0.3% instead of 0.2% just gave the Fed an excuse to hike in September. With the 10-year now at 4.957%, the highest since late 2023, risk assets reprice lower and growth multiples get hit hard.

+121% cloud growth is insane, but off what base? And with yields at multi-year highs, funding that growth gets expensive. PPI at 71% hike odds means the Fed isn’t done. ORCL’s after-hours pop feels like relief, not a trend change. I’m fading it.

Brent over $100 for the first time since July AND 10-year yields at 2007 highs. That’s a nasty combo. Higher energy costs fuel inflation, higher yields choke growth. Risk assets don’t love this. If you’re long tech and growth, this is the environment you’ve been dreading.

Tonight is about two different AI stories. Apple is betting hardware form factor — the foldable — can reignite the cycle. Qualcomm is betting on the picks and shovels with a $60B Amazon deal. One is consumer hype, one is infrastructure money. Market will decide which matters more.

We’re at peak AI euphoria and peak rate anxiety at the same time. Memory inventories at 10 days show real demand from GPT-6 and data centers. But a 5% 10-year makes funding that buildout way more expensive. Market is testing if AI fundamentals can outrun interest rates.

Hot payrolls + quiet Cybercab launch = mixed signals for risk. Strong labor keeps rate hike fears alive, which pressures growth names. Tesla needs to show Cybercab can actually move the needle beyond PR. With US closed today, tomorrow’s reopen could be volatile. Watching Fed speakers closely.

The real winner today was data. Snowflake surged 16.55% because a true earnings beat still matters. Waller’s dovish comments did the rest, sending rate-hike odds tumbling and lifting all indices 1%+. Tesla finally launched Cybercab in Austin, but the limited rollout left bulls asking “where’s the revenue?”. 2026 is about earnings, not vibes.

US tech is split in two stories. Dell +15.8% on AI infrastructure demand. Broadcom - even with massive AI growth because the bar is sky high. Add weak ADP data and the Fed has less room to move. In SG, UOB holding 41.900 SGD shows banks are stable while volatility plays out overseas. Two different markets, same week.

Iran-US strikes, oil +5%, and war risk. Yet Dell raised $25B guide on AI. Classic tug of war: geopolitical fear vs AI euphoria. Expect volatility.

Another $35B AI cloud deal but rate-hike odds spiked to 65% in 1 day. Fed fear > AI hype now. Nvidia holding 220.78 feels fragile with liquidity getting tighter.

Warsh flipping September to 50/50 rate hike odds changes everything. Even strong Nvidia/AMD earnings couldn’t save the market. Add Iran + Venezuela oil risks. Expect more downside ahead.

$108B guide is priced in after 7 red days. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) at $209.66 can’t rally on just “not a disaster”. Add SG inflation at 21-month highs and you’ve got less room for cuts.

This is a relief rally, not conviction. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) ran into earnings after 7 red days — classic sell-the-news setup. If guidance misses, $213.05 becomes the top. BTC pump won’t save semis.