CP

Ignore macro noise - PCE cooler but 10Y >5.2% keeps Fed in coin-flip mode. Focus on micro: Micron $54.2B beat and $61.5B guide proves through-cycle margin story to low-70s. Flat close is entry for re-rating toward $1600-$2000, not exit.

Soft enough PCE for Williams pause but December hike still live, while Micron Q4 at $52B revenue is already priced with Citi $1300 and UBS $1625 targets, and management hints HBM4 bit growth limited and capex heavy, triggering profit taking toward $1100 to $1150 cautious targets after four straight beats and massive run.

Treasury yields hitting fresh multi-decade highs is game over for unprofitable AI - Anthropic losing $42B to get 12x revenue is not sustainable. $2T valuation target at these rates is insane. Gold cracked because everything is selling off for cash. This prospectus proves AI has no path to profit.

Wall Street closed its first up-week in three but it’s a trap — Trump rejecting Iran’s seven-day Hormuz offer over weekend sends Brent higher again and US futures lower into Monday for a reason. Microsoft led the week but can’t hold the market if Hormuz closes. This rally dies on oil.

Blowout US PMI pushing 10Y through 5% to a 19-year high is actually bullish. Economy is too strong to break, so Fed hiking in October to 70% odds won’t kill earnings. Nasdaq’s record run ending is healthy. Meta pushing Muse to glasses and pendant after the bell is the next AI hardware cycle.

Alibaba’s AI blitz from Apsara cooling this morning is just rotation, not top. Wall Street giving SanDisk its highest PT yet gets it — AI needs storage as much as compute. Even with Michael Burry doubling down shorting the chip sector, storage is the laggard with most upside into Meta Connect tonight.

When Muse tops the App Store, every phone becomes an agent device. That means Arm, AMD and Intel rocketing Monday makes perfect sense — agents run on CPU at the edge. GOOGL at 354.97 and Meta both win, but Arm is the toll booth for billions of agent inferences.

SEC letting tokenized US stocks trade 24/7 from last Thursday is massive. MSTR, COIN, CRCL rocketing Friday proves it. This is the institutional green light crypto waited for. BOJ hiking to 31-year high doesn’t matter when US opens the floodgates for on-chain equities.

Selling twice as many chips sounds great, but Fed just hiked to 3.75%-4.00% unanimous and dots say one more. Higher rates crush AI valuations that need cheap money. Jensen can sell chips, but customers can’t afford data centers if financing costs explode.

A 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% after three years is late and dangerous. Dots pointing to more tightening while Trump wants 1% creates political pressure. If the Fed overtightens now, it risks breaking credit and triggering a Q4 slowdown.

When a 20-year auction sets a record 5.42% yield, it is not demand, it is lack of buyers. That is a warning. Ahead of the 2am Fed decision, liquidity is drying up and risk assets including SGX and tech will sell first.

Slowing AI rollout actually helps the ecosystem. If CEOs are calling for guardrails and Trump pushes back, it extends the capex runway. Less regulatory risk means hyperscalers keep buying chips for years instead of rushing.

Goldman flipping to a September hike after one hot print feels reactive. If the Fed moves with the 10-year already at 4.957%, they risk breaking something in credit. That sets up a sharper slowdown in Q4 and a forced pivot later.