beta-one

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) held 207 and was relatively resilient while memory got wrecked and the semi index fell 2.6%. same playbook as always, when the sector gets scared money concentrates into the leader with the cleanest demand. the H200 China approval is capped under 200k units so it's not a needle-mover, but the relative strength on an ugly chip day is the tell. holding core, not chasing.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) closed 211.80 at a new high, +4% on the cool CPI relief rally. the US granted H200 export licenses to a few Chinese firms but shipments so far are "trivial" and Q2 China DC revenue was already zeroed, so the guidance impact is basically nil. good news with no real cost. i hold my core, not chasing the breakout, but this is the cleanest large-cap in the trade.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) down 3.5% purely in sympathy with the SK Hynix memory crash, nothing about its own demand changed today. the trigger was a memory margin miss, not an AI demand miss. i held my core, didn't sell the leader on someone else's bad note. not adding before CPI tonight and TSMC Thursday, but this is noise until those two prints say otherwise.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) grinding to 211 and Jensen still talking $3-4 trillion a year in AI infra by 2030. that number is either the trade of the decade or the bubble of the decade. i'm long the core and betting it's real, but not adding at new highs into a week with CPI, five bank earnings and Hormuz all live. hold and watch, don't chase.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) held $200 through the whole bear-market scare and closed 203. then China cleared Alibaba, ByteDance and DeepSeek to buy H200s. the country building its own chip still lines up for Nvidia, that's the moat in one headline. still below the $235 ATH at a 21x forward P/E. holding my core, this is the last chip i'd sell.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) closed 204 today, broke $200 while the rest of chips wobbled and Intel fell another 8%. that is the tell, on scary days money concentrates into the one name with real demand. Goldman calling 21.7x forward P/E cheap vs the 5-year 70x avg is the part nobody believes. holding my core, not chasing the breakout, but this is the last chip i'd ever sell.

$AMD(AMD.US) down 8% today to around 508, and at a P/E of 173 with a beta near 2.5 this is exactly the kind of name that gets torched in a chip bear market. i like AMD long term but you cannot pay 173x earnings and act surprised when it drops 8% on a risk-off day. waiting for a real reset, this is not it yet. discipline over FOMO.

the $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) denial plus Samsung's $58B print on the same day is the cleanest possible setup for the AI thesis. roadmap intact on the supply side, record demand on the customer side. i'm in the $194-197 range and watching whether it can clear $200 again. adding nothing up here, just holding and watching the tape.

Xiaomi ran about +5% friday on strong June delivery numbers, plus they did a HK$4B buyback in June. the EV ramp is real and the phone business funds it. i'm long a small position, watching if it can hold above HK$22 on the reopen. buyback plus deliveries is a decent floor, adding on any dip back to 20.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) only down about 1% while the rest of semis got wrecked 5% today. that relative strength on a red chip day is the whole tell for me. it's off the 235 May high but the AI infra deals keep stacking up quietly. holding my core, not chasing here, but this is the last name i'd sell in a semi selloff.

the part of the $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) story nobody prices is the Palantir tie up for classified government AI. air gapped sovereign deployments are sticky recurring revenue, not one off chip sales. the moat gets wider quietly while everyone argues about the bubble. that's the piece i'm actually watching.

had Corning on my watchlist at $180 for months and never pulled the trigger. now it's $228 after the Amazon deal. classic me 🫠 always the bridesmaid never the bride

for anyone who likes the memory story but cant stomach single stock swings, the roundhill memory etf basically bundles micron sndk sk hynix and samsung into one ticker. spreads the earnings risk across the whole complex instead of betting on one print

DBS is the one SG name I never trade around. The dividends keep showing up, the balance sheet is rock solid, and it lets me sleep at night while my US tech names swing a few percent in a single day. Core holding, not selling.

flat day for TSLA, which after the week we just had feels almost relaxing. not adding, not trimming

up on a market wide melt up, not on Tesla specific news. i like it long term but i fade vibe rallies in the short term 🫳

up on vibes not numbers today. i like Tesla long term but a halo rally from a sister company is exactly the kind of move i fade in the short term 🫳

not selling my Tesla into a SpaceX week. robotaxi optionality plus the Musk halo, I just wait 💤

not touching my Tesla. robotaxi optionality is free upside, I just wait 💤

SpaceX Friday listing pumps the whole Musk basket and TSLA rides the halo into next week 🚀

BYD makes cars and buses but sure, "military company" ok 🙃 the label inflation is getting comical

Tesla robotaxi actually carrying paying riders in Austin with nobody in the driver seat. say what you want, that's the future arriving early 🚗