Bluegate1104

Powell’s latest remarks: neutral to dovish

Powell just wrapped up his speech — overall, it leaned neutral to dovish. Two key takeaways:

First, he said that despite the current spike in oil prices, long-term inflation expectations remain stable. So the Fed hasn’t made any decisions yet — meaning rate hike expectations aren’t high.

Second, he noted that the Fed’s asset purchases — i.e., balance sheet expansion — help lower interest rates and support the economy. That’s actually the opposite of the tapering expectations that have been circulating.

Alright, neutral to dovish. The reaction from both stocks and bonds confirms that. But we’ll still need to see how oil prices react tonight. As long as oil holds steady, things should be fine.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)

Less Than One Rate Cut This Year?

The market is no longer fully pricing in a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. According to the latest interest rate swaps, bond traders now expect only 24 basis points of cuts for the year—essentially less than a full rate cut.

The reason? Soaring oil prices are fueling inflation expectations. Although Trump once again urged Powell to cut rates on social media today, a rate cut in March is almost impossible.

But whether this year will be as bleak as traders predict depends on the inflationary impact of oil prices and the state of U.S. employment going forward. And with Warsh set to take over in June, anything is possible.

$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US) $United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US)

Heads up: US Nonfarm Payrolls tonight 🕘

US Feb jobs data drops at 9.30pm SG time. Market expecting +59k — a sharp drop from last month's 130k. If it comes in weaker, odds of a June rate cut could tick up.

War headlines may dominate sentiment for now, but jobs data still matters — it directly influences the Fed's next move and market liquidity.

$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US)

Just saw that Coolpad dropped $4.98M on $Strategy(MSTR.US) at $127.58 . A Hong Kong-listed phone maker buying MicroStrategy as a "bitcoin treasury company" play. If Asian corporates start following Saylor's playbook, this thing could get interesting. They're not buying BTC directly - they're buying the corporate wrapper with built-in leverage. Smart or crazy? 🧐

GSA Capital just cut 79.4% of their $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) stake. Bridgewater also trimmed. But Mizuho upgraded to Outperform with $195 target. 191x P/E stock, some run, some chase. Revenue +70% is real, insider sales $10.5M also real. PLTR at $130, I'm watching who wins this fight. 🤔

CEO Hemsley hasn't sold $Unitedhealth(UNH.US) since June 2024 . Zero insider sales at $284. Last 12 months: $31.6M buys, $189k sells . 99.4% buy side. Insiders not selling at 52-week lows. That's the cleanest signal in this whole mess. 🚨

Latest quarter not yet reported, but last quarter cloud AI +34%, AI-related revenue triple-digit growth for 7 straight quarters. Management hinted 380bn RMB capex “maybe too small”. $Alibaba(BABA.US) is not a story stock, it’s an asset stock. 22x PE for AI+retail+cloud+international, optionality is free.

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) been stuck between 6920-6980 for a week. 6941 close, 20MA at 6850, 50MA at 6680. Volume shrinking, VIX still 24 . January’s “melt-up to 700” calls aged like milk. Now everyone waiting for CPI or Nvidia to break the range. 📊

$AMD(AMD.US) has recently been in the spotlight again, mainly due to its competition in AI GPUs. I believe the current stock price reflects future potential, not current earnings.

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US) is increasingly resembling an Ethereum version of MSTR, with the core logic being continuous fundraising to buy ETH. 😅

Short-term trading $BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US) behaves like a meme+crypto hybrid. Moves with ETH price plus narrative headlines like creator economy investments and staking plans. High risk high volatility play.

In the memory trio (MU, WDC, SNDK), $Micron Tech(MU.US) has the broadest product portfolio and leading HBM tech.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)downgraded again? Maybe the AI bubble is finally getting a reality check

Honestly this one starting to feel less like a pure mining play and more like a crypto treasury story. Recently $BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US) has been making noise around expanding its crypto holdings and pushing into staking strategies, especially around Ethereum exposure. That changes the narrative quite a bit. Instead of just depending on mining margins and electricity cost, now they’re effectively taking directional bets on crypto price plus yield from staking.

For retail investors, this makes valuation tricky because you’re no longer just pricing hash rate or infrastructure, but also treasury strategy risk. Some people compare it to the MicroStrategy model but with ETH flavour.

Personally I see upside if crypto stays strong, but volatility will probably be brutal.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) It looks like storage is the main focus this year.

Today there was finally a slight increase, so why did it keep falling?

AMD's guide shows even AI winners face execution and expectation hurdles. The data center growth story remains intact, but priced to perfection.

They're avoiding financial reports; since the prices are about the same anyway, I'll switch to $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) first.

Given UNH’s enormous scale and dominant US healthcare position, valuation looks cheaper post‑selloff — but regulatory and policy risk is still a major overhang.

Palantir earnings tonight! Their AI story better be good to save this market

MSFT down 10%?! That's a serious overreaction. This is a massive buying opportunity