Warsh issued a hawkish policy signal, warning that despite recent cooling inflation reports, underlying trends have not “meaningfully improved”. He indicated that the central bank might need to raise interest rates in the coming months if inflation persists stubbornly, emphasising the need for confidence that underlying inflation is moving towards the objective. Otherwise, he stated, “We have work to do.”
PCE at 3.7% beat expectations unexpectedly, pushing the probability of no rate hike in September from 35% to 66%. Since Walsh took office, forward guidance has been scrapped and the dot plot abolished...


