10yr Treasury yields continue to rise, hitting 5.28% today (+4.7bp today) and their highest level since 2007 and before that the 1999-2000 dotcom bubble. This pressures equity valuations, especially long-duration (high P/E) equity valuations since most of their value is in the tail. With the recent inflation uptick mostly oil supply-shock driven, a case can be made for lower 10yr treasury yields once the war with Iran ends, and Brent crude eases.
Gary Black Tracker
Daily quotes, trades and insights from Gary Black.
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$Meta Platforms(META.US) is drawing growing attention around its consumer AI strategy as Muse strengthens the company’s push into personal AI assistants and raises comparisons with $Apple(AAPL.US) when it launched iPhone in 2007. META’s 3.6 billion-user base across Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp is a major competitive moat, giving the company enormous reach as it integrates Muse across its existing platforms. Meta has successfully combined AI, hardware and data, with Muse providing the software layer and products such as smart glasses serving as one of several possible interfaces.
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I believe $Meta Platforms(META.US) will continue to move higher as investors better appreciate the disruptive power and reach of META’s new Muse personal AI agent to shop, pay bills, and manage their lives. At 24x 2026 EPS vs long-term future rev and EPS growth of +15%, META still looks attractive despite a +30% gain so far in September (vs NDX +3%).
Bloomberg OpinionBy Dave Lee09/23/2026 04:30:07 I’m Using Meta’s AI Agent and Amazon Can’t Stand It.▪Meta Platforms Inc. has released a new AI agent called Muse, which can organize calendars, scour Facebook Marketplace, and buy things from Amazon, but Amazon has blocked Muse from accessing its store.▪The move is a sign of things to come as Silicon Valley giants try to protect their entrenched advantages in the age of artificial-intelligence agents, and consumers will lose out if their preferred agent can't work well with the full range of digital services.▪The issue of interoperability, or the ability for AI agents to talk to services and to one another, becomes the central question, and companies may need to find ways to work together or risk being forced to open up, with the courts potentially being asked to judge what's fair.(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Meta Platforms Inc. is rightly receiving plaudits for its new AI agent, Muse. I’ve been using it, and it’s plainly the most impressive product Meta has released in years. Harold — the name I gave to my bot — works to organize my calendar, scour Facebook Marketplace for good deals and buy things, with my blessing, fromG
Kalshi now puts 61% odds on Dems taking back the U.S. Senate in November; Republicans now hold a 4-seat advantage 53-47. Kalshi now attaches a 91% chance to Dems taking control of the U.S. House which Rs now control 218-214 with 1 independent and 2 vacancies. 35 of 100 Senate seats and 100% of House seats are up for grabs on Election Day in 6 weeks on Nov 3.
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$Meta Platforms(META.US) AI agent Muse soars to #1 at Apple Apps store, ahead of Chat GPT.
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The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise short term interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.75-4.0%, and penciled in an additional 25bp hike later this year, steps aimed at containing inflation that will test Fed Chairman Warsh’s relationship with President Trump. “Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the committee’s 2% goal,” officials said in a statement following the move Wednesday, referring to inflation. It was the US central bank’s first rate increase since July 2023.
This goes against President Trump’s wish to reduce interest rates, although the Fed decision was likely in response to the 50% increase in the price of Brent crude since end of February, the result of the US war with Iran, which President Trump initiated. The market reaction was in line with expectations: 10-year TY dropped -5.1bp to 4.95%, and equities held onto earlier gains, with S&P 500 +0.4% and NDQ +0.7%.G
Possible Fed outcomes today:
1/ Bull case scenario: Dovish hike - Fed raises rates by 25bp and makes it clear that there are no plans to raise rates further (Fed will be data-dependent). One-and-done. 10-year TY likely retreats, good for equities.2/ Moderate case scenario: Hawkish pause - No change in rates, but hawkish talk that signals a likely hike at next month’s meeting. Highly unlikely because next month’s meeting (10/27-28) is right before midterms. 10-yr TY likely flat or rises, mixed for equities.3/ Bear case scenario: Hawkish hike - 25bp hike but with signal from Warsh this could be the first of several hikes. Unlikely since Warsh wants to get away from forward guidance. 10-yr TY likely increases, which is bad for equities, particularly long duration equities.G
I believe it’s better for equities if the Fed raises short-term rates by 25bp tomorrow (first Fed rate increase since July 2023) in response to elevated oil prices (brent crude +50% since end of Feb) than to get forced into a series of rate hikes. While brent prices are likely to fall from here if Trump can negotiate an end to the war — which would help Republicans in the midterms — a dose of Fed medicine tomorrow could prevent a situation where a Kevin Warsh-led Fed is forced onto a path of several interest rate hikes, which would likely push 10-year Treasury yields higher, hurting growth equities. A short term rate hike tomorrow if positioned as potentially one-and-done could push 10-year treasury yields lower.
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Please see my daily pre-mkt summary on my assessment of elevated oil prices caused by Saudi Arabia’s closure of their East-West pipeline, which has driven Brent crude to $105/bbl and caused 10-year treasury yields to spike to 5.05%, its highest level since 2007. This has led value stocks to significantly outperform growth stocks (+20.9% vs +2.7% respectively YTD) with long duration growth stocks like $Tesla(TSLA.US) impacted most. Money markets now see a 92% chance of a Fed hike (first hike since July 2023) tomorrow following the two-day Fed meeting.
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$Meta Platforms(META.US) remains one of our top 15 positions and next to $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) is our 2nd favorite media/comms name. We expect META to continue to post +20% revenue growth and +15%+ EBiTDA growth long-term. META has 3.7B Daily Active People growing at 3-4% per year and avg rev per person (ARPP) growing at 20%+ per year and is uniquely positioned through Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp to drive AI-engagement through its user base. At a 2026 P/E of 20.7x vs +15% long term Rev and EPS growth it remains among the cheapest of all Mag 8 stocks.
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$Uber Tech(UBER.US) Stock Pops After CEO Buys Shares Worth $10 Million.
I continue to believe $Uber Tech(UBER.US) is best positioned to take advantage of several auto manufacturers offering fully autonomous driving options in their vehicles, as self-driving can easily be added and selected by $Uber Tech(UBER.US)’s 215 million monthly active users who already use the app. UBER currently has over 10 million vehicles in its network. (Barron's) -- Uber Technologies CEO Dara Khosrowshahi bought about $10 million of stock in the company early Thursday and the filing of his purchase at midday sparked a rally in the depressed shares of the leading ride-hailing company. Khosrowshahi purchased 141,000 shares of Uber at an average price of $70.96, according to a form 4 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. That raised his total holdings to 1.367 million shares now worth about $100 million. The Form 4 filing by Khosrowshahi was made around 12:40 EDT and the news immediately resulted in a 3% pop in the shares, which had been trading around $70.75. Uber shares finished Thursday at $72.56, up 2.1%. Uber shares are down about 10% from their August high of around $80 and are off 11% this year amid investor concerns about whether its business will be disrupted by autonomous vehicles operated by Waymo and Tesla. Insiders have two business days to file Form 4s on stock buys and most of them wait a day or two before filing. It's unusual to see a same-day filing by an insider of a stock purchase. This is the second purchase in a week by an Uber executive. On Sept. 4, Chief Operating Officer Andrew Macdonald bought 70,000 Uber shares for roughly $5.3 million. That stock was purchased across two transactions at prices between $75.23 and $76.85 a share. The twin purchases are a sign that top executives view Uber stock as cheap. The stock is now trading for about 11 times projected 2027 free cash flow and around 17 times 2027 GAAP earnings.
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Prediction: New $Apple(AAPL.US) fold phone will become a must-have product for 20- and 30-somethings, will usher in a new iPhone upgrade cycle, substantially increase iPhone ASP, and allows business travelers to bring one small device rather than two.
Most 20-30 somethings will want the new iPhone fold phone as a status symbol and to take and display pictures and videos. The absence of a crease when the phone is unfolded is a huge advantage vs Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Google Google 10 Pro Fold phones in the U.S. and Huawei fold phones in China.The biggest risk is limited production of the new iPhone fold phone will limit incremental earnings for potentially 6 months and unknown cannibalization of iPad sales.
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US stocks were mixed pre-market as brent crude rose a fifth day to above $100/bbl ahead of the ECB rate decision and $Oracle(ORCL.US) earnings. Treasuries were little changed at 4.84%. $Apple(AAPL.US) gained following its foldable iPhone launch while chip stocks and $Tesla(TSLA.US) slipped after last week’s vague Cybercab event. Strong August jobs data last week has lifted September Fed rate hike odds to 62%, though tomorrow’s CPI could overshadow the strong jobs report. I remain skeptical the Fed will raise rates at next week’s meeting this close to midterm elections. The forward S&P 2026 P/E of 20.9x puts the S&P 500 earnings yield below the 10-year U.S. treasury yield and vs a typical equity yield premium of +50-100 bp. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) given declining 2027-30 earnings estimates, the continuing commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and TSLA’s extreme valuation.
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The cheapest of the Mag 8 on 2026 P/E vs forward long-term eps growth (PEG) is $Broadcom(AVGO.US) at 0.9x (28.0x P/E vs +30% long-term eps growth). The most expensive of the Mag 8 on PEG is $Tesla(TSLA.US) at 4.8x (222x P/E vs +46% forward eps growth). YTD the best Mag 8 performer has been $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) (+20%), which is also one of the cheapest (1.1x PEG); the worst Mag 8 performer has been $Tesla(TSLA.US) (-18%).
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US stocks searched for direction as Brent crude briefly crossed $100/bbl on escalating US-Iran attacks with no peace talks in sight, lifting gold, silver and bitcoin. 10-year treasury yields ticked higher in front of next week’s Fed meeting. Chip names gained; $Apple(AAPL.US) edged up ahead of its foldable-phone launch today and $Tesla(TSLA.US) slipped after recovering yesterday following last week’s uncertain Cybercab event. A strong August jobs report Friday has raised odds of a September Fed rate hike to 62%, although the I remain skeptical of a move two months before midterms. S&P 2026 earnings ests continue to rise on AI and energy, but at a 21.1x forward P/E the S&P 500 now yields less (4.7%) than 10yr Treasuries (normal equity premium 50-100bp). We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) given declining 2027-2030 earnings estimates, the continued commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a stretched valuation (220x forward P/E vs +35% long-term EPS growth, 6.3x PEG).
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‘Birkin of smartphones’ to be introduced at $Apple(AAPL.US) new product event today. “Despite the high price, the foldable iPhone will be wildly successful,” said Nabila Popal, a longtime senior smartphone market researcher at IDC. “I won’t be surprised if it becomes the ‘Birkin’ of smartphones in China,” she said, referring to the luxury handbag made by Hermès. Price starting at $2,199.
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$Apple(AAPL.US) ‘s annual new product event — titled “Surprise and Shine” — is tomorrow, Wed, Sept 9, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. PT / 1:00 p.m. ET. It will be streamed live from the Steve Jobs Theater at Apple Park on
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New bi-fold and tri-fold cell phones from Huawei, Samsung, and $Apple(AAPL.US) are about to lead to a huge upgrade cycle in the cell phone industry.
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$Tesla(TSLA.US) has no one but itself to blame for squandering first movers’ advantage in EVs from 2020-2023 and if they use the same play book of allowing the product to speak for itself will squander their first movers’ advantage in unsupervised autonomy in 2026-2027 as well.
The appropriate strategy for TSLA is to clearly communicate the benefits of Cybercab/unsupervised autonomy (time saved, drives while you’re tired, safer than human driving, aesthetics) to would be consumers via a limited (~$100 M) advertising spend. This cements TSLA’s autonomous advantage in the minds of consumers once others copy and add autonomous vehicles to their own product offerings. TSLA allowing its technology to speak for itself is a short-term engineering mindset and merely communicates the product benefits to Tesla’s existing customer base, who already are well aware of and are willing buyers of the technology. The goal of advertising is to convey the benefits of an innovation to new consumers who wouldn’t ordinarily consider Tesla in their evoked set of potential automotive brands. A second benefit is the halo effect for safety and advanced driving technology that autonomy establishes for the overall TSLA franchise. TSLA bulls who can’t see these benefits don’t understand why TSLA has underperformed NDX the past 1, 3, and 5 years. The market’s not stupid. With a 200x forward P/E, TSLA needs to deliver better than 35%-40% long term EPS growth to justify that multiple. Absent this level of growth, TSLA stock is likely to continue to underperform.G
Bloomberg: Gary Black Says Tesla Has Solved Unsupervised Autonomy, but Competition Is the Bigger Threat
Mohd Haider09/06/2026 03:45:06(Benzinga Newswire)Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black said he has always believed Tesla Inc.$Tesla(TSLA.US) would “solve for unsupervised autonomy” with its Cybercab launch and flagged rising competition and stretched valuation, days after calling the Cybercab event “largely a bust.”Rivals Close In On 1 Million Weekly RidesIn a Saturday post on X, Black said Alphabet Inc. $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), Baidu Inc. $Baidu(BIDU.US),
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I’ve said all along that $Tesla(TSLA.US) would solve for unsupervised autonomy, and with the launch of Cybercab it’s clear they have. My caution has always been that a handful of others would also achieve unsupervised autonomy within 18-24 months and with $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Baidu(BIDU.US), $Pony AI(PONY.US), $WeRide(WRD.US), and $Amazon(AMZN.US) now completing over 1 million paid unsupervised autonomous rides per week without safety monitors, that prediction also looks accurate.
To be clear, TSLA’s autonomous technology is nothing short of amazing and I believe TSLA robotaxi will continue to expand to markets beyond Austin. Over the next few years, I believe “self-driving” will become the preferred ride option on $Uber Tech(UBER.US) and other ride hailing apps, and multiple providers will offer vehicles to fill it. IMHO $Tesla(TSLA.US) ‘s stock, which finished Friday at a 2026 P/E of 213x and 2027 P/E of 158x, remains extended vs WS’ predictions of +35% long term earnings growth (6.3x and 4.4x PEG respectively). For perspective, the avg Mag 8 stock ex-TSLA trades at a C2026 PEG of 2.7x forward long-term earnings growth. Whether TSLA stock can deliver outperformance after underperforming NDX and SPX significantly YTD and the past one, three, and five years depends on the outcomes to these three questions:1/ How quickly can TSLA safely scale up Robotaxi so that it becomes a meaningful % of TSLA earnings?2/ How quickly can competitors repeat what happened in EVs from 2021-2023 and copy TSLA’s autonomous technology such that unsupervised autonomy becomes a commodity? 3/ What is the likely safety profile of TSLA robotaxi as it expands from geofenced Austin to other U.S. cities and to Europe and Asia? Here’s my ask: Rather than $Tesla(TSLA.US) influencers who call me childish names for remaining cautious and being right on TSLA stock to date try answering these three questions. Let’s move the discussion forward.G
Many $Tesla(TSLA.US) retail investors continue to make three common mistakes:
1/ Loving the company doesn’t mean you should love the stock.2/ Valuation matters. A stock at 220x forward earnings and growing at 35%/year is way more expensive than one at 20x earnings and growing at +15%/year. 3/ Don’t rely on management’s promises for your research. Do a 360 degree research review before investing: Customers, competitors, suppliers, company itself.Contrary to what some on X think, I don’t hate TSLA. I like the company’s core businesses (EVs, autonomy). As I’ve said since we exited TSLA in May 2025, I don’t like the valuation of the stock.G![图片 1，共 1 张]()
After most $Tesla(TSLA.US) events, TSLA stock sells off the next day, because expectations before the event run too high and the actual deliverables don’t match the hype. So far, the Cybercab event tonight (which is actually the second Cybercab launch; the first was October 10, 2024, at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, California) is following the same script, with $Tesla(TSLA.US) +17% over the past month vs NDX flat.
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U.S. stocks were slightly lower as oil and 10yr treasury yields ticked higher. Gold, silver and bitcoin rose, and chip names were mixed. $Broadcom(AVGO.US) slipped after slight miss in revenue guidance. U.S.-Iran strikes continued with no resolution in sight. Traders priced a 62% chance of a Sept. Fed hike, although I don’t see it given slowing job growth and temporary nature of oil supply shock. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have continued to climb on AI and energy sector gains. S&P 500 forward earnings yield remains below 10-year treasury yield (no equity risk premium; normal +50-100 bp premium). Tesla’s Austin Cybercab event is today; I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) shares amid negative TSLA long term earnings revisions, unsupervised autonomy being commoditized, and an extended valuation.
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$Broadcom(AVGO.US) -7% AH after 3Q results beat ests but 4Q rev guidance fell slightly short of analysts’ expectations ($34.8B vs $35.0B est). Importantly, 3Q AI rev of $16.7B beat 3Q ests of $15.9B and 4Q AI Rev guidance (which caused $Broadcom(AVGO.US) stock to decline -12% after 2Q results) came in above expectations ($21.7B vs $21.3b est). As the AI Rev strength becomes clearer to investors I expect the stock to recover somewhat.