Daily quotes, trades and insights from Gary Black.

Gary Black Tracker

U.S. stocks rose pre-market (SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.6%) ahead of today’s Fed policy decision and new Fed Chair Warsh’s first press conference, with oil stabilizing at $79/bbl and 10-year yields dipping to 4.43%. $SPCX rose again pre-mkt by +3.4% to $209, and is poised to overtake $MSFT as the world’s 4th most valuable company. A more dovish outlook from falling oil prices and easing inflation is boosting AI/tech and consumer discretionary plays, while S&P 2026 EPS estimates climbed to $342. I remain cautious on $TSLA amid declining earnings forecasts, rising autonomous competition, and an extended P/E relative to future growth potential.

A $TSLA/SpaceX merger makes no sense mathematically for TSLA shareholders unless there are huge cost or revenue synergies for $TSLA.  The 35% dilution is just too great given the relative P/E differences.  This is the same reason the idea of a combined enterprise with all of Elon’s businesses didn’t fly last time. 

The math is pretty straightforward:   If TSLA contributes its $1.5T market cap at a 200x P/E and SpaceX contributes its $800B market cap equity at a 400x P/E, the combined company would have $2.3T market cap, To make the math work, TSLA would dilute its shareholders by issuing 35% new shares ($800B / $2.3B), and the combined company would show $8B adj net income (TSLA $6B, SpaceX $2B).  IMO many existing TSLA institutional shareholders would balk at the uncertainty of 25% profits coming from space travel/communications and sell their shares.   Every TSLA shareholder knows that TSLA is no longer just an EV company, but Energy, Autonomy, and Robots are at least profitable and can be modeled analytically.

The industrial logic of a TSLA/SpaceX merger escapes me.  I get that a deal makes Elon’s empire easier to manage since TSLA can fund SpaceX’s negative cash flows but that’s not TSLA shareholders’ concern.  While it’s true we no longer own TSLA shares so have no horse in this race, my past warnings to TSLA shareholders (TSLA would not sell 20M cars/year by 2030, other mnfrs would master unsupervised autonomy at the same time as TSLA) proved correct and so should afford some credibility that I know what I’m talking about.  

$TSLA has now underperformed Nasdaq for 5 years (TSLA  +48% vs NDX +90%) including over the past year (TSLA +12% vs NDX +20%).  We use 1- and 5-year measurement periods because those are the most common periods used by Bloomberg users, as you can see by the Bloomberg default periods at the bottom of the graphs below.

Momentum stocks (buying what has worked) remain the clear YTD winners in equities despite the brief selloff triggered by the Iran conflict. The recovery since late March has been driven largely by momentum stocks, which are +14% since the recovery began in late-March as investors have looked past geopolitical risks. As a result, momentum remains the best-performing factor globally in 2026, with gains of nearly +30% YTD.

Defensive stocks have moved in the opposite direction. Low-volatility stocks are the worst-performing factor globally -18% this year.  Value has posted a modest +1.5% gain year to date. Profitability has fared somewhat better during the recovery, with returns broadly flat year-to-date.   It’s unclear how the spate of new equity and secondary offerings will impact equity returns ($SPCX, Anthropic, OpenAI, $GOOG $300 billion equity sales) although SPCX’s post IPO +19% gain on Friday may portend strong investor interest.  Source:  Bloomberg

Here are the 10 most valuable companies in the world by market capitalization as of today 6/12/2026.  Market caps fluctuate daily with stock prices, so these are approximates:
1.  NVIDIA (NVDA) — ~$4.97 trillion (USA, Semiconductors/AI). Dominant leader in GPUs and AI hardware. 
2.  Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL) — ~$4.40 trillion (USA, Technology/Search & Advertising). Parent of Google, YouTube, etc.
3.  Apple (AAPL) — ~$4.28 trillion (USA, Consumer Electronics). iPhone, services, and ecosystem powerhouse.
4.  Microsoft (MSFT) — ~$2.89 trillion (USA, Software/Cloud). Azure, Office, and AI integration. 
5.  Amazon (AMZN) — ~$2.55 trillion (USA, E-commerce/Cloud). AWS cloud dominance and retail operations. 
6. SpaceX (SPCX) — ~ $2.25 trillion (USA, space travel, connectivity, AI. 
7. Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg (TSM) — ~$2.21 trillion (Taiwan, Semiconductors). World’s leading chip foundry (powers many top tech firms). 
8.  Broadcom (AVGO) — ~$1.82 trillion (USA, Semiconductors). Key player in networking, AI chips, and infrastructure. 
9.  Saudi Aramco (

$NFLX -10% today seems overdone given that NFLX maintained its FY’26 sales guidance (+12-14% YoY) and operating margin guidance (31.5%) despite weak 2Q rev and eps guidance.  The key risk is that NFLX still needs content and may pursue an M&A opportunity elsewhere. 

NFLX still looks compelling at a 2026 P/E of 28.6x and 2026 EV/EBITDA of 24.2x vs 2026-30 forecasted Rev growth of +10%, EBITDA growth of +16%, and EPS growth of +17%.

From my pre-mkt summary for Subscribers this morning:  $TSLA +1.1% again this morning to $416 after rising +5.7% the past two days after showing significant year-over-year gains in April in China and several European countries, as global oil prices have surged.  

Despite likely continued near-term momentum fueled by rising oil prices I remain cautious on $TSLA given the company’s disappointing FY’26 outlook following robust 1Q earnings.  2026-30 earnings ests continue to decline and investors are coming to the realization that other manufacturers will also solve for unsupervised autonomy over the next 12 months. $GOOG $BIDU $WRD $PONY and $AMZN are now completing 1.0M paid unsupervised autonomous rides per week without safety monitors.  I have no position in TSLA due to its extended valuation (2026 P/E 220x vs +36% long-term EPS growth, 6.0x PEG).

For the record, I am far more aligned with $TSLA longs than shorts.  Of all OEMs, TSLA has the greatest chance over the next 12-18 months to exploit the opportunity from unsupervised autonomy as FSD efficacy improves and TSLA continues to traverse the march of nines.  

That said, It’s hard to make the TSLA P/E math work if TSLA only offers unsupervised autonomous ride handling in a few states. I don’t see consumers en mass rushing out to buy a robotaxi vehicle with just two seats sans steering wheel and pedals anytime soon. I similarly believe TSLA bulls under-estimate competitors’ abilities to scale up unsupervised autonomous ride hailing with $GOOG $BIDU, $PONY, $WRD, and $AMZN already completing 1M paid robotaxi rides per week and $NVDA offering its autonomous hardware/software stack to every OEM. 

My issue is not lack of understanding or confidence in TSLA’s unsupervised autonomous capabilities.  My concern is that at 200x 2026 EPS, the market has already discounted TSLA’s success in achieving unsupervised autonomy and ride hailing without evidence TSLA has the marketing muscle to dominate either in what will surely be crowded spaces. Put simply, I like Tesla the company but not the valuation.   For bulls who keep posting $2,500, $3,000, and even higher valuations, kindly show us the math.

$DASH +11% AH as 2Q gross order value guidance exceeded expectations and 1Q results came in line. This is similar to $UBER who also guided higher for 2Q gross bookings after posting in-line results for 1Q. 

2Q Guidance:
- Marketplace gross order value $32.4B - $33.4B vs $32.25 billion est.
- Adj Ebitda $770M-$870M vs $830M est.

1Q Results:
- Marketplace gross order value $31.6B +37% y/y, vs $31.21B est
- Rev $4.04B, +33% y/y, vs $4.15B est
- EPS 42c vs. 37c est
- Adj Ebitda $754M vs $741.4M est
- Adj gross margin 51.9% vs. 51.1% est
- Orders 933M vs 942.25M est
- Free cash flow $420M vs $631.2M est

COMMENTARY AND CONTEXT
- We continue to expect Deliveroo to contribute approximately $200 million to our Adjusted EBITDA in 2026"
- 2Q EBiTDA guidance included gross cost of the Dasher gas relief program of $50M, funded at least partially by adjusting investments in other area

DASH continues to look compelling at a FY’26 P/E of 33x and FY’26 EV/EBITDA of 19x, vs 5-year forward rev growth of +20% CAGR and 5-year forward EBITDA growth of +25% CAGR.

Conf call 430pm ET

$NFLX -9% AH after guiding to lighter than expected 2Q revs and EPS, and announcing that founder and Board Chair Reed Hastings would not stand for re-election.  FY’26 Rev guidance was unchanged vs prior guidance despite 1Q results beating across all metrics.

1Q actuals:
- Revs $12.25B vs $12.17B est
- EPS $1.23 vs $0.76 (includes $2.6B WBD exit fee)
- Operating margin 32.3% vs 32.4% expected

2Q guide:
- Revs $12.57B vs $12.64B est
- EPS $.78 vs $.84 est

FY’26 guide:
- Revs +12-14% YoY to $50.7B-$51.7B (same as before)
- Operating margin 31.5% vs 32.0% est (same as before)
- Adv revenue $3B (no change)
- FCF $12.5B vs $11B prior due to WBC termination fee

Stocks rose pre-market despite new US and Israeli strikes on Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which killed Iran personnel and disrupted shipping amid mine-laying attempts. Trump had indicated negotiations with Tehran are “proceeding nicely.” Brent crude surged 3.9% to $99/bbl although 10yrTY fell -5.1bp to 4.50%.

I expect equities to reclaim new records as the conflict ends, oil retreats, and S&P 500 2026 EPS ests now at $340 (+22% YoY) on AI and energy gains, implying a 4.5% forward earnings yield, the same as 10yrTY.  Several specialty retailers will announce 1Q earnings this week. I remain cautious on $TSLA due to declining estimates, rising autonomous competition, and an extended valuation.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ For more detail see my pre-mkt summary for Subscribers only.

$AVGO (-6.7% after hours) reported 2Q earnings ahead of expectations and 3Q rev guidance above expectations but 3Q guidance for AI semiconductor solutions was slightly below expectations.  With $AVGO stock up +13% in the past five trading sessions (vs NDX +2%), it would be reasonable for AVGO to retreat after today’s 2Q results and soft 3Q guidance. 

2Q actual
- Rev $22.19B vs $22.13B est
- EBITDA $15.24B vs $14.96B est
- EPS $2.44 vs $2.39 est
- AI Semi solutions $7.18B vs $7.23B est

3Q guidance
- Rev $29.4B vs $28.6B est
- EBITDA $20.0B inline with $20.0B est
- AI Semi solutions to grow +200% to $16.2B vs $17.2B exp

Stock was pricing in a healthy 3Q guidance beat especially on its AI semiconductor solutions business.  With results slightly below expectations, and the stock’s rally of +13% over the past 5 sessions, a fair conclusion is that AVAGO’s 3Q outlook likely disappointed investors who were hoping for blowout guidance.