Tonc

$Robinhood(HOOD.US)HOOD held up surprisingly well when rates were rising, barely pulling back despite the broader pressure. That relative strength was encouraging.

But yesterday, even with positive news, the stock opened higher and then sold off throughout the session. That kind of reaction is definitely discouraging, especially when the market refuses to reward a stock with good news.

I decided to trim part of my HOOD position. When the price action starts contradicting the narrative, I’d rather reduce some exposure and see whether the strength comes back.

@Captain's Treasure

Micron could easily beat expectations and still struggle to move higher. The market is still much more focused on the sharp rise in long-term Treasury yields, and that macro pressure is making it harder for even strong earnings to translate into upside.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction after earnings. Micron has already rallied significantly over the past few months, so a strong report may simply confirm what the market has already priced in.

Target price around 1030

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)SPCX had a pretty interesting day. Starship Flight 14 successfully launched and reached orbit for the first time, but the stock still sold off as Treasury yields spiked. Good news on the company side, but the macro backdrop clearly mattered more in the short term.

I decided to add a little more at this level. The launch itself was a meaningful milestone, so I’m willing to look past the short-term reaction and keep building the position gradually.

Sometimes even genuinely good news gets ignored when rates are moving hard. I’d rather focus on whether the underlying story keeps progressing than expect the stock to react immediately.

@Captain's Treasure

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ gapped higher and broke to new highs last week. Even with negative headlines over the weekend, the overall trend stayed surprisingly resilient, and the index continued to absorb bad news.

I kept adding to my QQQ position through my regular DCA. Higher rates seem to be favoring the mega-cap M7 names again, while hardware stocks have started losing relative strength.

As long as leadership remains with the strongest cash-generating companies, I’m comfortable staying patient and accumulating the index instead of chasing weaker sectors.

@Captain's Treasure

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)Google has been rejected around 360 several times now, and each attempt has ended with a sharp pullback. That level is starting to look like a meaningful ceiling rather than just another resistance.

I’m not buying here. The valuation still doesn’t feel attractive enough for me, so I’d rather wait for Gemini 4 to prove its execution or a much better entry around 250–300.

I’d rather miss the first rebound than force a trade. Patience is also a position.

@Captain's Treasure

$Intel(INTC.US)I was waiting to buy Intel around 60, expecting a deeper pullback. Instead, the stock bounced right off its long-term moving average and left the previous gap unfilled.

I didn’t add because my limit order never got hit. Looking back, I probably should have used my regular DCA instead of relying on one perfect price.

Trying to catch the exact bottom is usually harder than I think. Next time I’d rather scale in gradually than miss the move completely.

@Captain's Treasure

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ was extremely volatile on FOMC day, but the weekly candle finished much stronger than the intraday swings suggested. Despite the rate noise, buyers kept stepping in and the trend held up well.

I increased my QQQ DCA slightly this week. A strong weekly close gives me more confidence to add gradually instead of waiting for another perfect pullback.

As long as the index keeps absorbing bad news, I’m happy to stay patient and let consistent accumulation do the work.

@Captain's Treasure

$Apple(AAPL.US)

Apple is getting close to its previous high, and this feels like a reasonable place to trim some exposure. The market seems to have largely forgotten the headwind from higher interest rates, while expectations have quietly recovered.

I’m taking partial profits instead of waiting for a perfect top. Apple has been a solid defensive holding, but I don’t see much reason to keep adding capital to a slower-moving mega cap here.

The lesson is simple: great companies don’t always make great trades, and reducing into strength is often easier than chasing the next breakout.

@Captain's Treasure

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)NVIDIA played out exactly as expected—another quiet, range-bound week despite all the attention around AI. The stock feels more like a mature blue chip than a momentum leader.

Jensen has started raising long-term expectations again, trying to keep confidence high. But the market seems much less responsive than before. After the Marvell episode, where optimism helped fuel a rally before a sharp reversal, investors are treating management commentary with more skepticism.

For now, words matter less than execution. The next real move will probably need earnings, not speeches.

@Captain's Treasure

1B 2B 3B

Oil prices are staying elevated, and it feels like the market has already made the rate decision for Warsh. If his own framework is truly market-driven, he’ll eventually have to respond to what’s already being priced in. The interesting part is that employment remains surprisingly resilient, which could pull other Fed officials back toward a more hawkish stance.

I’m actually leaning the other way on Warsh himself. He’s repeatedly argued for looking beyond traditional inflation gauges and even proposed alternative ways to measure underlying inflation. If that remains his focus, there’s still room for a more dovish tone than the market currently expects.

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)The past week has been filled with negative headlines, and sentiment around high-beta growth names is still fragile. Even so, both Tesla and SPCX have held up much better than I expected instead of breaking lower.

I added to my SPCX position when it reclaimed the 20-day moving average. It’s still a small position, but I’m treating that level as a sign that buyers are willing to defend the trend despite the constant bad news.

My takeaway is simple: price matters more than headlines. If a stock can resist selling pressure during weak sentiment, it usually deserves more attention than the news flow itself.

@Captain's Treasure

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ has gone nowhere for three straight weeks, swinging up and down without making real progress. The optimism around GPT-6 faded quickly, hardware names slipped back into weakness, and geopolitical headlines only made sentiment worse. Under the surface, both price strength and market breadth have deteriorated noticeably.

I’m still continuing my regular DCA into QQQ. Despite how painful many individual stocks feel, the index itself hasn’t actually broken down. It still looks more like a market stuck in disagreement than one entering a clear bearish trend.

This week means that weak breadth doesn’t always mean an immediate index collapse. As long as the larger structure holds, I’d rather accumulate patiently than let short-term headlines change a long-term plan.

@Captain's Treasure

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)After trimming part of my Microsoft position earlier, I’ve accumulated quite a few DCA shares again. The stock has stayed resilient, but it still hasn’t offered a clean exit where I feel comfortable selling without hesitation.

I’m not adding aggressively or reducing here. I’m simply holding the accumulated position and waiting for a better opportunity instead of forcing a trade.

Patience is part of the strategy. Missing a perfect exit is better than creating a bad one.

@Captain's Treasure

$Apple(AAPL.US)Yesterday’s Apple event was interesting. The foldable iPhone was the biggest surprise, but I don’t think it changes the company’s earnings outlook in a meaningful way. It felt more like a product story than a profit catalyst.

I added a small AAPL position during the event. For me, it’s less about chasing upside and more about holding a steady mega-cap as a partial hedge against my more aggressive tech exposure.

This means not every position needs to maximize alpha. Sometimes a boring stock is exactly what a portfolio needs.

@Captain's Treasure

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)I sold part of my SPCX position around its IPO price. After the recent rotation, the hardware sector is once again attracting capital on every positive catalyst, and that could put pressure on smaller thematic names like SPCX.

I’m not necessarily bearish on the story itself, but when liquidity starts concentrating back into hardware, other high-beta themes can get ignored quickly. For now, taking some profit near the IPO price feels reasonable and leaves me with room to see how the rotation develops.

My takeaway: when capital starts crowding into one theme again, protecting gains matters more than forcing the next move.

@Captain's Treasure

$Robinhood(HOOD.US)While money rotated out of the hardware sector, HOOD became one of the strongest momentum trades and rallied on its own narrative. The move was much stronger than I expected, especially with liquidity flowing into brokerage names.

It has now climbed back near my first take-profit level around 127. If price reaches that area, I plan to trim part of the position and lock in some gains rather than chase higher.

This week reminded me that having exit levels in advance makes trading much easier. It’s always better to take partial profits with a plan than make emotional decisions in the moment.

@Captain's Treasure

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ repeated the exact same pattern again this week: buyers stepped in on every dip, while rallies immediately met profit-taking. Looking only at the index, it feels like another week with almost no progress despite plenty of volatility.

I added a little more QQQ through my regular DCA. Friday’s rebound in the hardware sector, helped by the GPT-6 launch, was encouraging, but I still want to see whether the strength can continue before becoming more aggressive.

My takeaway is to stay patient. As long as the market keeps rotating instead of trending, gradual accumulation makes more sense than chasing short-term momentum.

@Captain's Treasure

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)The earnings reaction was surprisingly muted at first, but Jensen’s stronger long-term guidance completely changed the mood and sent NVIDIA sharply higher. It reminded me how quickly expectations can reset with one conference call.

I used the rally to trim part of my position. Honestly, I don’t have much desire to add more here—NVIDIA feels increasingly like a mature market leader, and it’s becoming harder to find meaningful alpha at these valuations.

This week reinforced one lesson: don’t confuse a great company with a great trade. Sometimes taking partial profits is the more disciplined decision.

@Captain's Treasure

$Tesla(TSLA.US)Tesla unexpectedly rallied while the broader hardware sector stayed weak, showing that liquidity and narrative can still outweigh short-term fundamentals. Even so, I think a real breakout to new highs would likely need both lower bond yields and a fresh wave of excitement around robotics.

I added a little more to my position during the move, but I’m still keeping the sizing relatively controlled. For now, I see it as adding to a theme rather than chasing momentum.

The lesson for me is to build positions gradually. Tesla can move much faster than expectations, so staying flexible matters more than trying to predict every swing.

@Captain's Treasure

With the semiconductor sector looking relatively weak lately, even a strong Broadcom earnings beat may only trigger a modest rally. I expect AVGO to gain around 1–3% initially, with a near-term target of $380, as high expectations may limit the upside.

$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)Last week, QQQ was relatively quiet. Thursday’s rally was driven mainly by NVIDIA’s strength, but Friday’s hawkish Fed comments quickly erased part of the gains. It felt like the index was still lacking a clear catalyst beyond AI leadership.

I kept my QQQ DCA at the minimum level. Valuations are simply hard to ignore, and the elevated CAPE ratio makes it difficult for me to increase exposure aggressively despite the resilient trend.

My takeaway is to stay patient. I’d rather keep adding slowly than chase a market that already prices in a lot of optimism.

@Captain's Treasure

$Quantinuum(QNT.US)

I started buying QNT near its post-listing lows after watching sentiment cool down. I actually missed taking profits around the previous peak, so this position has been a good reminder that timing exits is often harder than finding an entry.

For me, QNT has much more upside beta than IBM. It feels like a pure quantum computing theme, so I’m treating it as a higher-volatility satellite position rather than a core holding. I’m comfortable holding a small allocation while the story develops.

Going forward, I won’t chase every spike. If quantum computing becomes a market theme again and the setup improves, I’d rather add gradually than react emotionally to momentum.@Captain's Treasure