Tonc

$Apple(AAPL.US)Yesterday’s Apple event was interesting. The foldable iPhone was the biggest surprise, but I don’t think it changes the company’s earnings outlook in a meaningful way. It felt more like a product story than a profit catalyst.

I added a small AAPL position during the event. For me, it’s less about chasing upside and more about holding a steady mega-cap as a partial hedge against my more aggressive tech exposure.

This means not every position needs to maximize alpha. Sometimes a boring stock is exactly what a portfolio needs.

@Captain's Treasure

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)I sold part of my SPCX position around its IPO price. After the recent rotation, the hardware sector is once again attracting capital on every positive catalyst, and that could put pressure on smaller thematic names like SPCX.

I’m not necessarily bearish on the story itself, but when liquidity starts concentrating back into hardware, other high-beta themes can get ignored quickly. For now, taking some profit near the IPO price feels reasonable and leaves me with room to see how the rotation develops.

My takeaway: when capital starts crowding into one theme again, protecting gains matters more than forcing the next move.

@Captain's Treasure

$Robinhood(HOOD.US)While money rotated out of the hardware sector, HOOD became one of the strongest momentum trades and rallied on its own narrative. The move was much stronger than I expected, especially with liquidity flowing into brokerage names.

It has now climbed back near my first take-profit level around 127. If price reaches that area, I plan to trim part of the position and lock in some gains rather than chase higher.

This week reminded me that having exit levels in advance makes trading much easier. It’s always better to take partial profits with a plan than make emotional decisions in the moment.

@Captain's Treasure

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ repeated the exact same pattern again this week: buyers stepped in on every dip, while rallies immediately met profit-taking. Looking only at the index, it feels like another week with almost no progress despite plenty of volatility.

I added a little more QQQ through my regular DCA. Friday’s rebound in the hardware sector, helped by the GPT-6 launch, was encouraging, but I still want to see whether the strength can continue before becoming more aggressive.

My takeaway is to stay patient. As long as the market keeps rotating instead of trending, gradual accumulation makes more sense than chasing short-term momentum.

@Captain's Treasure

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)The earnings reaction was surprisingly muted at first, but Jensen’s stronger long-term guidance completely changed the mood and sent NVIDIA sharply higher. It reminded me how quickly expectations can reset with one conference call.

I used the rally to trim part of my position. Honestly, I don’t have much desire to add more here—NVIDIA feels increasingly like a mature market leader, and it’s becoming harder to find meaningful alpha at these valuations.

This week reinforced one lesson: don’t confuse a great company with a great trade. Sometimes taking partial profits is the more disciplined decision.

@Captain's Treasure

$Tesla(TSLA.US)Tesla unexpectedly rallied while the broader hardware sector stayed weak, showing that liquidity and narrative can still outweigh short-term fundamentals. Even so, I think a real breakout to new highs would likely need both lower bond yields and a fresh wave of excitement around robotics.

I added a little more to my position during the move, but I’m still keeping the sizing relatively controlled. For now, I see it as adding to a theme rather than chasing momentum.

The lesson for me is to build positions gradually. Tesla can move much faster than expectations, so staying flexible matters more than trying to predict every swing.

@Captain's Treasure

With the semiconductor sector looking relatively weak lately, even a strong Broadcom earnings beat may only trigger a modest rally. I expect AVGO to gain around 1–3% initially, with a near-term target of $380, as high expectations may limit the upside.

$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)Last week, QQQ was relatively quiet. Thursday’s rally was driven mainly by NVIDIA’s strength, but Friday’s hawkish Fed comments quickly erased part of the gains. It felt like the index was still lacking a clear catalyst beyond AI leadership.

I kept my QQQ DCA at the minimum level. Valuations are simply hard to ignore, and the elevated CAPE ratio makes it difficult for me to increase exposure aggressively despite the resilient trend.

My takeaway is to stay patient. I’d rather keep adding slowly than chase a market that already prices in a lot of optimism.

@Captain's Treasure

$Quantinuum(QNT.US)

I started buying QNT near its post-listing lows after watching sentiment cool down. I actually missed taking profits around the previous peak, so this position has been a good reminder that timing exits is often harder than finding an entry.

For me, QNT has much more upside beta than IBM. It feels like a pure quantum computing theme, so I’m treating it as a higher-volatility satellite position rather than a core holding. I’m comfortable holding a small allocation while the story develops.

Going forward, I won’t chase every spike. If quantum computing becomes a market theme again and the setup improves, I’d rather add gradually than react emotionally to momentum.@Captain's Treasure

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)I had stayed away from NVIDIA after completely closing my previous position. Lately it feels much more like QQQ than the explosive growth stock it used to be—an incredible company, but one that has entered a more mature and less exciting trading phase. On top of that, the hardware sector has been relatively weak, which makes it even harder to feel confident buying.

I still picked up a small NVIDIA position recently, mainly because of a community event. It’s only a starter position, not a conviction trade, since I’m still waiting to see whether hardware names can regain leadership.

I don’t like to go all in immediately. Building gradually is often better than forcing a larger position when the sector trend is still uncertain.

@Captain's Treasure

I’m leaning slightly bearish on NVIDIA heading into earnings. Expectations are still incredibly high, but the hardware sector has already started losing momentum over the past few weeks. Even if the numbers are solid, it feels like the market may struggle to reward them the way it did before. My base case is a small decline after earnings rather than a big breakout—sometimes great results simply aren’t enough when sentiment has already peaked.

$Apple(AAPL.US)The market has become much less forgiving toward companies with negative free cash flow. AI leaders can still deliver impressive revenue growth, but investors are clearly rewarding stability and consistent cash generation over ambitious spending.

I’ve been steadily dollar-cost averaging into Apple. It may not have the most exciting growth story right now, but its resilient business model and predictable cash flow make it a solid core position. Rather than trying to catch the perfect bottom, I’m building the position gradually as sentiment stays cautious.

This reminded me that protecting downside matters just as much as chasing upside. In a higher-rate environment, I’d rather accumulate quality businesses patiently than wait for one “perfect” entry that may never come.

@Captain's Treasure

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)As we mentioned last week, the market is finally starting to broaden. Even though QQQ looked relatively weak, underlying breadth has improved noticeably, with more sectors participating instead of just the usual AI leaders.

The biggest surprise was the rebound in liquidity-sensitive names. Following Bessent’s Treasury bond-buying move, capital quickly rotated back into higher-beta assets, suggesting investors are becoming more comfortable taking risk again.

That doesn’t mean the index is out of consolidation, but it does show a healthier market beneath the surface. If breadth keeps expanding, this rotation could become more important than QQQ’s headline performance alone.

@Captain's Treasure

$Tesla(TSLA.US)Tesla increasingly trades more like a meme stock than a company driven by its core business results. Looking back at the previous major rallies, they were often fueled by improving liquidity and a fresh narrative rather than a dramatic change in fundamentals.

Whether it was autonomy, Optimus, Robotaxi, or SpaceX-related expectations, each cycle found a new story for the market to price. The business still matters over the long run, but in the short term, sentiment and liquidity have become much stronger drivers than quarterly earnings.

That’s what makes Tesla so difficult to value: it’s often the narrative that moves first, while the fundamentals catch up later—or sometimes don’t.

@Captain's Treasure

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)OpenAI’s widening losses have once again raised questions about the sustainability of the AI ecosystem. The interesting part is that cloud providers like Microsoft can capture part of the economics, but they still can’t completely escape the pressure from rising hardware costs and massive infrastructure spending.

This creates a strange dynamic: AI revenue is growing, but so are the costs required to support that growth. If hardware prices continue rising faster than monetization, the industry may struggle to expand margins even as demand remains strong.

The market is therefore starting to focus less on AI revenue growth itself and more on where the profits ultimately accumulate—and whether the entire ecosystem can generate sustainable free cash flow.

@Captain's Treasure

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ has entered consolidation after a strong short squeeze last week. Interestingly, VIXEQ suggests that market breadth is actually improving, with participation gradually expanding beyond the previous leaders.

However, the experience across sectors remains very different. Some areas are still attracting strong flows, while others barely respond to the broader rebound. That makes the index look healthier than the average stock actually feels.

For now, I’d view this as a rotation and digestion phase rather than a clear new trend. The key is whether breadth continues to expand and eventually reaches the lagging sectors.

@Captain's Treasure

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)Gemini 3.7f’s direction feels increasingly similar to DeepSeek: prioritizing speed, efficiency, and lower costs rather than simply scaling compute. If this trend continues, Google may eventually need less hardware to achieve the same level of AI output. That could become a major shift for the AI infrastructure story, because growth in AI capability may no longer require hardware spending to rise proportionally. The next question is whether efficiency gains can outpace the demand created by wider AI adoption.

@Captain's Treasure

After several years of strong gains, I’m becoming less optimistic on gold and silver. Central-bank buying should provide a floor for gold, making a major decline harder, but the bigger issue is opportunity cost.

If AI-driven productivity gains keep growth expectations elevated, rates may stay higher for longer. With liquidity remaining relatively tight, precious metals could struggle to outperform capital-intensive AI themes.

The key risk to this view would be a sharp slowdown or renewed inflation shock that pushes investors back toward defensive assets.

@Captain's Treasure

$Intel(INTC.US)Intel raising capital at elevated levels is a classic case of long-term good news becoming short-term bad news. Expanding capacity and strengthening its foundry ambitions could be positive over several years, but issuing shares at this stage creates immediate dilution and gives the market another reason to question valuation. The bigger issue is timing: investors are being asked to absorb more supply before the additional capacity has translated into meaningful profits. So while the strategic direction may still make sense, the near-term reaction is understandable. It’s a reminder that even a good investment plan can become a headwind when the market is already pricing in a lot of future success.

@Captain's Treasure

$Apple(AAPL.US)Apple feels increasingly like a stock investors almost have to keep on the radar rather than a pure momentum trade. Higher hardware costs could clearly pressure margins and earnings expectations, especially if component prices continue rising. But trying to pinpoint the exact bottom may be harder than simply watching how expectations evolve. For me, the more interesting setup is whether the market has already priced in most of the margin pressure. If so, a gradual approach makes more sense than waiting for one perfect entry point. The key is whether Apple can maintain its ecosystem advantage while navigating higher costs and weaker hardware economics.

@Captain's Treasure

1A,2A,3A

I’m expecting today’s CPI to come in relatively soft across the board. Gasoline prices barely changed last month, so energy shouldn’t add much inflationary pressure. More importantly, if AI-driven K-shaped divergence looks broadly similar in the U.S. and China, weaker demand across the lower end could reinforce disinflationary pressure. If the data confirms that trend, the Fed may have more room to turn dovish, especially if the labor market also starts cooling. The key is whether this becomes a sustained disinflation trend rather than just one soft CPI print.