$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) investors, be prepared for them to pull guidance when they report Tuesday night. Near-term negative.
That doesn’t change the fact that demand for the next year, even with the leadership changes, will be better than the Street expects.Source: Gene Munster
Taking a step back from the Jensen news.
This hits at a moment of broader AI anxiety: multi-year buildout costs, geopolitical delays on data centers, and the risk that new models reduce the need for expensive inference. All of it has fed the selloff.None of it changes the underlying reality. We’re still early. Adoption is sub 1%, and the steep part of the inference S-curve is still ahead of us. Nvidia’s GPUs remain a step-function better than AMD’s, evidenced by ~90% GPU market share even at a higher price.The uncertainty in $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) creates a window for new capital to come in and benefit from the next several years of the AI buildout, of which Nvidia will account for about 50% of that cost.Source: Gene Munster
The unknown is now known.
This morning $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) will gap down ($150 floor) on the Jensen news, then rallies as the market focuses on what actually matters.AI demand is still accelerating. Nvidia GPUs remain the clear winners.Next Tuesday’s earnings should confirm it.Source: Gene Munster
Remember: AI infrastructure customers will act in their best interest.
That means they’ll keep buying just as many $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) chips with or without Jensen.My guess: the stock opens at $150 (it’s $160 in after-hours). That would be down ~20% from Friday’s close. I expect it to quickly rally back.Source: Gene Munster
The fact that China targeted Jensen underscores the geopolitical significance of AI leadership.
That means both Democrats and Republicans will need to build lots of data centers. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)Source: Gene Munster
$Apple(AAPL.US) hits all time high. Now $5.12T cap.
Long-term:I believe the stock will continue to move higher in the months to come as the Street starts to wrap its head around a multi-year hardware upgrade cycle for iPhones, Macs and iPads driven by the need for better compute to run personalized agents. Near-term:Biggest reason for the move higher today was slower capex spend for data centers should ease memory component pricing which is positive for margins long term. This allows investors to revisit the positive December quarter revenue guide, up 7-10% yy vs Street at up 6%.Source: Gene Munster
$Apple(AAPL.US) drops 3% on margin guide.
Guides Dec growth to 7-10%. Street was at 6%. Negative was Margins guide of 45-46% vs. Street at 46.9%.Source: Gene Munster
For the $Apple(AAPL.US) call:
1 .What are you doing about personalized agents?2. How is Duo doing?3. When will The New Siri lose the beta badge be available in Europe and China?Source: Gene Munster
Two questions on the call related to personalized agents. Ternus dodged the questions. I wanted to hear him say they'll change how consumers use tech.
My take: It's clear they don't want to talk about personalized agents. They're the biggest risk to the Apple ecosystem. Today, about 20m people worldwide use personalized agents (Muse, Grok Bot, Dot). In a few years, it will likely be billions a day.The first question: The question was: What do personalized agents mean for the Services business? Ternus says “they are excited about Siri AI” and that the project is request-based today, with “room to expand capabilities.” He wants users' security and privacy protected.The second question: Ternus underscores that the iPhone is your personal hub and Siri can access that in a secure and private way. He says they will continue to push on that, and they feel good about it. $Apple(AAPL.US)Source: Gene Munster
First take on $Apple(AAPL.US) (stock flat). Business overall is solid despite navigating higher memory costs and higher prices to consumers. Sept guidance in 45 mins.
1. iPhone was up 17.5% vs. Street at up 15.5%. Rock solid.2. Mac got a 22% price increase for the full quarter and beat estimates. Sales up 24% yy, compared to Street looking for up 15%. Shows how much Mac bucked the Intel announcement for a slowdown in consumer we say last week.3. iPad got a 21% price increase and missed. Sept was down 10% yy vs. Street at flat. For December, Street is at down 3%. They should beat that with the new models just announced.4. Gross margin, adjusting for tariff refund was 46.9% vs. Street at 47.5%. Shows the price increase is not offsetting memory costs.5. Services were in line up 10%, compared to up 12% in June.6. Wearables down 8% vs. Street at down 4%. I dont know what to make of this.Source: Gene Munster
Five $Apple(AAPL.US) Topics for Tonight:
1. How will Ternus discuss future new products? Robots??2. Slowdown of Services to 10% yy vs. 12% in June. Is something structural going on?3. Impact of the June price increase on Mac demand. INTC blowup. 4. How is Duo going? When will it get to supply demand equilibrium?5. Most importantly, what are they doing regarding personalized agents? The "New Siri" is already old.Source: Gene Munster
$Apple(AAPL.US) earnings tonight: Bigger than the Duo and memory pricing, the wild card tonight is that we have a new sheriff in town in Ternus and don't know how he'll talk about the roadmap.
Cook and Jobs were hush when it came to discussing the roadmap. Ternus hasn't said much over the past two months beyond not wanting to do AI for the sake of AI. What investors want to hear tonight is that Apple sees an opportunity to be at the center of personalized agents, not just deliver a better Siri.Source: Gene Munster
Cybercab testing looks to be underway in Minneapolis. Photo taken this morning. @robotaxi
My take: I bet they’re pre training today for snow testing this winter. This underscores they’re comfortable at pushing the testing limits to the next level.Source: Gene Munster
$Amazon(AMZN.US)'s AWS growth outlook justifies a new investment narrative. Today, AWS is about 25% of sales. In five years it will likely be at least 50% of revenue.
Source: Gene Munster
$Amazon(AMZN.US) gave good news for the AI hardware trade.
Commentary on long-term Capex: said it will be “meaningful,” a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,” and that “we’re going to invest.”Source: Gene Munster
From the call, it’s clear $Amazon(AMZN.US) management wants the Street to think of the company as a AI data center and chips company. Forget retail.
That been the consistent message on the call, underscored by them doing the unthinkable: giving two-year AWS revenue growth guidance of 40%+ in each of 2027 and 2028, above the just-reported 39%. They typically only guide AWS one quarter out.They’re also saying AWS will be a trillion-dollar business in 5–10 years. In CY28 the Street is at $306B. Bottom line: they’re telling the Street that AWS is going to be much, much bigger.Source: Gene Munster
The $Intel(INTC.US) (down 17% in after hours) guide down should not be extrapolated on $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) (down 1.3%).
Bottom line: Main issue is PC demand. If there is pricing pressure on DCAI it suggests they are likely losing share.The company is calling like it is, demand is slowing because of high memory costs.That’s a read on how customers fell about their chips. If customers were demanding them, high memory costs would have little impact on demand.Nvidia has been beating numbers despite high memory costs and Jensen was bullish last week at GTC Berlin. $SpaceX(SPCX.US), $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) all said Capex in CY27 will be signfnalty higher than 2026. The Street is looking for 42% growth compared to $82% this year.Source: Gene Munster
$Amazon(AMZN.US): Google results were a warning sign to Amazon investors.
Tonight the Street will likely discount favorable Sep results and an inline Dec guide because the long-term (starting second half of 2027) risk that personalized bots pose to the business is increasingly real. Some of that is getting priced in today, with shares down 3.5% going into the print vs. Nasdaq down 1.5%.Personalized bots will make it easy to find just what you’re looking for, making them a logical starting point for anything we buy.Amazon wins for three reasons: 1. Finding what you want, 2. Speed, 3. Trust. The first will increasingly be under attack.Source: Gene Munster
AI Mode and AI Overviews are weighing on Search growth. History would say they’ll fix it over time given their new ad unit. The challenge is they now have to factor in personalized bots. $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)
Source: Gene Munster
Sundar recognizes the importance of personalized bots to compete with Muse, Grok Bot, Dot. Says "Agents will operate as a unifying layer across our products, so you will see us extend these agentic experiences beyond search in the Gemini app to Chrome, Android, and our workspace products as well."
My take: I want to better understand what a unifying layer means for the user experience. $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)Source: Gene Munster
$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) is down 7% after Search revenue growth of 12%, below the Street’s 15% estimate. Search had been beating estimates since March of 2025.
If this was a clean miss with no one-time factors, it will likely restart fears that generative AI and increasingly personalized bots will nibble away at growth.Look for comments on the call about how they plan to navigate this upcoming wave.Source: Gene Munster
I'm getting more concerned about $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) because they need an answer to personalized bots.
Three key topics for earnings tonight:1. Cloud growth outlook. Expect 92% growth in September and 95% in December. I think they guide to a slight step-up in growth in December.2. Capex. Street at $201B in CY26 and $312B in CY27. I think that's the right number.3. How do they win with personalized bots? Can Google have an AI Overview and AI Mode encore to direct search traffic into personalized bot usage?Source: Gene Munster
We're in the early stages of a multi year Mac super cycle.
This morning, $Apple(AAPL.US) announced some Mac updates, including 14-inch MacBook Pro and iMac models (M6 chips). Still waiting on the first touchscreen Mac announcement later this morning.Pricing is unchanged today. Keep in mind that late in June they raised the price of the MacBook by 18% and the iMac by 16%.My take: There is upside to the Mac over the next two years. Mac has gone from 8.6% of revenue in June 2025 to 9.5% in June 2026. Last quarter it grew 29%. The Street is expecting 12% y/y in Sep ’26, going to 6% growth in FY27 and FY28.Most important: I believe we are in the early stages of a multi-year AI-powered hardware upgrade cycle. Consumers and businesses will need to buy new hardware, even at higher prices, to fully leverage AI. That’s good for Mac growth. I expect FY27 Mac to grow above 10% (Street at 6%) and FY28 above 10% (Street at 6%).Source: Gene Munster
I spent the weekend pushing the new Siri and am happy to report it's leap forward.
But once you've used personal agents, you ask Siri to do things it can't.That begs the question; Which is harder to copy: Apple's ecosystem or a great personal agent? I used to think the ecosystem. Now I'm not so sure.$Apple(AAPL.US) reports next Monday. The most important topic is the shifting AI goal posts. In June the conversations was around was when will the new Siri come out. Now it's what's their answer to Muse, Grok Bot and Dots.Source: Gene Munster
Duo line watch: Apple Southdale MN had about 80 phones and sold out before doors opened at 8a.
Line at 8a opening was 75. Some people bought two. My take: the 75 line is a win for $Apple(AAPL.US) given the high price point and anyone who showed up today did not have a reservation, only fingers crossed. The line of 75 compares to other major launches. In 2018 when the first iPhone Max came out, there were 110 people in line at the Southdale store.So lines are 47% shorter, but price is 82% higher. iPhone XS Max $1.099 (2018)iPhone Duo $1,999 (2026)Source: Gene Munster