Gene Munster

To get a better sense about the underlying $NVDA revenue growth, we need to adjusting for China revenue over the past two quarters. Here's what we find.

Jan 26: 89%
Apr 26: 109%
Jul 26: 95%

Guidance for July doesn't need an adjustment (there was no China revenue in July 25'). 

Take away: Keeping growth rates at similar rates despite the law of large numbers is a sign we're still early. These numbers are so good that it makes Apple's beating the law of large numbers in the sweet spot of the iPhone growth look JV.Source: Gene Munster

If you missed Google I/O this week because it got buried under NVIDIA earnings, SpaceX S-1, and OpenAI verdict, you’re not alone. 

All you need to know is $GOOG Search is continuing to evolve. They’ll be adding agents into basic search, that means in the future Search will working for you even when you’re not searching.

Second, custom silicon is lower costs and increasing Cloud market share.

Source: Gene Munster

Physical AI & $NVDA 

As in each of the past five quarters, Jensen reminds investors that physical AI will become a major driver in the next several years, but it has not yet started.

My take: Investors are under appreciating the impact of physical AI. This year, FSD will account for about 0.3% of total passenger miles driven in the U.S., and autonomous ride-hailing will account for about 2% of rideshare. Cars are one part of physical AI.Source: Gene Munster

Last night Anthropic announced a multi year $200B commitment to $GOOG Cloud. 

The debate about can Anthropic make good on the deal misses the point. 

The big picture is this announcement underscores how early we are in AI, with the need for compute taking off on the heels of last Novembers step function improvement in many of the models utility.  

That’s good news for the entire AI model and infrastructure stack.Source: Gene Munster

$GOOG's Waymo is out raising money at about a $110B post. If this were a basketball game against $TSLA's Robotaxi, Waymo would be up 50–2. 

Spoiler alert: Tesla is poised to make a run.

Source: Gene Munster

Hyperscaler revenue was essentially half of Data Center $NVDA overall revenue. My math is that’s consistent with the Jan 26’ quarter. 

My take: GOOG, MSFT, META and AMZN capex guide is still the easiest way to get a sense of how things are going to Nvidia.Source: Gene Munster

Breaking $NVDA news: Trump is considering restarting H20 sales in China (Bloomberg). What it could mean for numbers:

Back in August, Jensen said China H20 could be a $50B revenue opportunity this year if fully sold in, with 50% annual growth.

The Street is currently modeling $317B in CY26 revenue, up 49% without China. 

If China comes back for the full CY26, total revenue would be about $367B, up 73% year over year.Source: Gene Munster

Jensen takes the mic for three minutes:

OpenAI: Confirmed they are nearing an expanded partnership (following reports of a $30B+ equity stake).

Meta: Says things are "going well," though avoided addressing Meta’s recent pivot to AMD for certain workloads.

Then turned it over to Q&A.Source: Gene Munster