Ethan1There is relatively little argument that artificial intelligence will eventually generate enormous economic value. However, the market spent Wednesday reminding everyone that "eventually" and "this qu...
There is relatively little argument that July was one of the ugliest months semiconductor investors have lived through in nearly two decades. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 21 percent, its ...
for anyone who wants the memory supercycle without betting the farm on one name, the DRAM etf is the lazy way to own the whole basket. lower vol than holding MU or SanDisk outright. not exciting but i sleep fine 💤
$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) got caught in the semis selloff as chips broke ranks from the index. custom silicon is a real story but on a day money rotated out of chips into big tech, second-tier names get hit first. i want it to hold 240 and i want to see TSMC this afternoon before adding. no point catching a chip name mid-rotation. watching the level and the print.
$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) bounced with the chip complex on the cool CPI but it's a second-tier AI name that mostly trades on the group's mood. custom silicon is a real story and the IBM read-through, budgets flooding into hardware, helps it long term. but i want it to hold 240 and i want to see TSMC tomorrow before adding. riding the group, watching the level.
quick reminder that $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) reports Thursday and it's the one to watch after this memory mess. the three things that matter: gross margin direction (pricing power the memory guys just proved they lack), CoWoS advanced packaging capacity (the real bottleneck for shipping more AI GPUs), and full-year capex guidance. raise the guide and the AI demand debate is settled. i'm long and holding through it.
heads up on the 2x SK Hynix ETF now that the real stock is listed in the US. the leverage ETF made sense when it was the only clean way to get SK Hynix exposure, but with the actual ADR trading now, that reason is gone. i'd rather own the underlying or the $Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM.US)$ basket than pay the daily-reset decay on a 2x product. rotating out of the leverage.
$AMD(AMD.US) up about 7% today riding the chip rebound, still carrying momentum from data center revenue surpassing Intel for the first time. EPYC plus Instinct is a real story now, not a hope. i hold a small position and i'm tempted to add on this strength, but the multiple is rich so i'll wait for it to consolidate the gain instead of chasing green.
$AMD(AMD.US) bounced to 517 today on the number that actually matters: data center revenue of $5.8B, up 57% YoY, surpassing Intel for the first time ever. that's a decade-long crown changing hands. i'm long a small position on the EPYC plus Instinct story. the only thing keeping me from adding more is the triple-digit P/E, i want a pullback not a chase.
Sembcorp had the second-most active trading on SGX during the holiday week. earnings July 30, less than three weeks away. FY25 net profit around S$1B, analyst target near S$6.89 versus the current price around S$6.19. that's a decent gap. holding my starter and watching whether the pre-earnings drift continues. SG manufacturing PMI at 51.3 is an extra tailwind for the industrial angle.
genuinely torn on Oracle here. earnings beat but they are spending like crazy on AI infra and just cut 21k jobs. is the capex a moat or a debt trap. watching $145 to see if it holds before I add.
AMD bounced back hard after being down 6% intraday, that $520 zone keeps holding. The Hynix HBM thing is a margin headline, not a demand one. Citi still has it at $575 so the setup isn't broken.
down 16% in a day and everyone panic already 😅 the bond raise is them funding Starship and Starlink expansion, not a distress signal lah. business hasn't changed, only the price did. ngl this is the kind of dip i was waiting for. averaging in slowly, no leverage, can hold for years.
rates held exactly where they were and the market threw a tantrum anyway. nothing changed for my 10 year horizon, adding to QQQ on the dip
SOXL is a trading tool not a hold. if you bought the dip with 3x and chips keep sliding, the daily decay eats you alive. be careful out there
holding a little SOXL as my high octane chip bet. on a melt up day like this it flies, but i never fall asleep on leverage 🌊
burned holding Intel through the dark years so this rally is bittersweet. nice for holders, i am watching from the side this time 🥲
SOXL is my high beta semi bet and it is ripping with the rebound. keeping a tight leash though, 3x leverage is no joke when the group rolls over 🎰
burned holding Intel through the bad years so i am watching this rip from the sidelines. nice for holders but i need to see the foundry actually win sustained orders 🥲
upgrade plus broad semi strength is a nice combo but AMD is the one i always treat as a high beta NVDA. happy holder, not adding up here 🫡
so we crashed all week then ripped back in a session. this is why I stopped trying to time MU 😮💨
got burned by the SMCI accounting saga last time, not forgetting that fast. nice bounce but I'm watching from the sidelines, not chasing 🛋️
down 4% but this is just Iran + CPI risk-off, not a MU story. buying the fear 🤲
still putting in for SPCX Friday. one market freezing approval doesn't dent a 4x oversubscribed book imo. not financial advice 🚀
MU still top of the trading + page views board even on a red day. HBM demand story hasn't changed, only the price did. -3.95% on a risk-off session is noise to me 🤷
