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ATFX: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh said at yesterday's House hearing: "Our committee members have a resolute commitment of zero tolerance for persistently high inflation." Before Walsh's speech, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June CPI data, with the annual rate dropping from 4.2% to 3.5%, below market expectations; the core annual rate dropped from 2.9% to 2.6%, also below expectations. The unexpectedly low CPI data impacted the U.S. Dollar Index, while gold, silver, and U.S. stocks surged. Although Walsh's remarks were hawkish...

At 21:45 today, the Bank of Canada will announce the interest rate decision, with the mainstream expectation being that the benchmark rate will remain unchanged at 2.25%. At 22:30, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference, with a focus on their statements regarding inflation data and the future interest rate path. Figure 1, Summary of Canadian Government Bond Yields Across Maturities - ATFX Whether the Bank of Canada adjusts interest rates can be analyzed on one hand by examining inflation and unemployment data, and on the other hand by analyzing the performance of Canadian government bond yields. From the chart above, it can be seen...

ATFX: At 20:30 today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the U.S. Core CPI year-over-year rate. The previous value was 4.2%, and the expected value has decreased to 3.8%, primarily due to the easing of geopolitical issues. The Core CPI year-over-year rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%, mainly because it has not been significantly affected by energy and food prices. The June CPI month-over-month rate is expected to drop from 0.5% to -0.1%, and the Core CPI month-over-month rate is expected to remain at 0.2%. The main focus of this data release lies in the range of the decline for the CPI year-over-year and month-over-month rates...

ATFX Market Commentary: Gold possesses safe-haven attributes. When geopolitical issues occur frequently and market capital's risk-aversion sentiment heats up, its trend receives a boost. The practical uses of gold are concentrated in two areas: jewelry and reserve assets, with very few industrial applications. Crude oil has industrial attributes and is the source of the entire chemical industry. Fluctuations in crude oil prices drive price changes in downstream products like refined oil, chemical fibers, PTA, and aromatic hydrocarbons. Crude oil is called the "mother of inflation" because its price fluctuations affect CPI data through direct fuel/refined oil prices and indirect transportation cost changes. When geopolitical issues arise...

ATFX Table ▲ This Tuesday: US CPI Data This Tuesday at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate. The previous value was 4.2%, the expected value is 3.8%, a projected decrease of 0.4 percentage points. The June unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate will be announced simultaneously, with a previous value of 2.9% and an expected value of no change. The expected decline in the CPI year-on-year rate while the core CPI is expected to remain unchanged suggests that energy and food prices are the core factors affecting the June inflation rate...

ATFX: At midnight on the 12th local time in Iran, officials announced: In view of the insecure situation caused by foreign intervention, the Strait of Hormuz is closed from today. Previously, the U.S. command stated that it had carried out another round of strikes against Iran. Iran also said that retaliatory actions are continuing. The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding remotely on June 17, and in less than a month, this memorandum has been violated. The U.S. and Iran blame each other, believing the other side violated the agreement first. Regardless of who bears more responsibility, the reality is that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed again, and the international crude oil supply side faces a new round of impact...

ATFX: On July 9th, the Federal Reserve announced the leadership structure and objectives of its five major working groups to advance the implementation of monetary policy. The five working groups are: 1. Communication: Examining how the Fed communicates policy discussions and decisions in an uncertain environment. 2. Balance Sheet Policy: Exploring the costs, benefits, and institutional implications of the Fed's current balance sheet framework. 3. Data: Enhancing the quality and timeliness of real economic signals that Fed policy judgments rely on. 4. Productivity and Employment: Assessing the economic impact of general-purpose new technologies, including artificial intelligence, to inform the Fed's policy judgments...

ATFX Forex Review: On January 29, gold hit a historical high of $5,597, then began to decline. As of the start of the European session today, gold is quoted at $4,100, down $1,497 from the historical high, a cumulative decline of 26.74%, close to 30%. The Fibonacci retracement theory suggests that a retracement of around 38.2% still allows the trend to continue; a retracement of around 61.8% makes it more difficult for the trend to continue. Gold's current retracement is still within a healthy range, causing limited damage to the long-term long trend. Figure 1...

ATFX: At 16:16 Beijing time on July 8th, US President Donald Trump stated at the NATO summit: "For me, I think this matter (the US-Iran memorandum of understanding) is over. In my view, it's just a waste of time." Iran responded by saying: We will not yield; reiterating that under no circumstances will it allow US interference in the management of the Strait of Hormuz. As early as July 7th, Trump had already publicly stated that he approved a strike plan against Iran (official statements indicated the strike had been carried out), raising market concerns about renewed conflict between the US and Iran...

ATFX Market Review: Regarding the judgment on the timing of the Fed's first interest rate hike, one basis is FedWatch, with data showing a 51.5% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, higher than the 46.9% and 38% in October and December respectively; another basis is the dot plot, which, according to the Fed's June interest rate decision materials, suggests a higher probability of a 25 basis point hike before the end of the year. The third basis is the Fed meeting minutes. At 2:00 Beijing Time today, the Fed released the latest meeting minutes, corresponding to the interest rate decision from June 17 to 28...

ATFX: The U.S. Energy Information Administration released the July Short-Term Energy Outlook report. Market focus is on how the EIA views the recovery of the crude oil supply side after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding. We observed that within minutes of the report's release, the WTI quote rose from $70.22 to $70.43, a small increase, with the immediate impact weaker than the release of the weekly EIA crude inventory data. ATFX chart▲ Yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump approved a new round of strikes against Iran, causing a sharp spike in market panic...

At 20:15 Beijing time, the American Automatic Data Processing (ADP) company released the weekly change in U.S. ADP employment for the week ending June 20th. The previous value was an increase of 30,750 people, with no forecast value available at the moment. Figure 1, ADP Weekly Data Bar Chart - ATFX Over the past six months, U.S. ADP weekly data has gone through three stages. The first stage, from the week of February 7th to the week of March 21st, saw values ranging between 9,000 and 26,000 people, indicating a weak labor market. The second stage, from the week of March 28th to the week of May 2nd...

ATFX Market Review: At 20:30 today, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the May trade balance. The previous value was a deficit of $55.9 billion, with a market expectation of a $75.8 billion deficit, indicating an expected deficit expansion of $19.9 billion. The trade balance is the change in value between imports and exports of goods and services. A surplus represents strong exports, which is beneficial for enhancing the international status of the U.S. dollar; a deficit represents strong imports, which is beneficial for increasing global U.S. dollar liquidity. Figure 1: The U.S. trade balance column line over the past three years. Since 1971, the U.S. has consistently had a trade account deficit...