First Fellow

First FellowNov 3, 2026 at 04:45 PM

If a stock goes up 10% and then falls 9.09%, it is back where it started. A fund that does 2x the daily move ends that same stretch down about 1.8%. Leveraged funds lose a little every time a stock swings back and forth, so they can stay down even after the stock recovers.

Know the difference before you hold on to leverage names like $SOXL $TSLL $NVDL longer than a day or two.

First FellowNov 3, 2026 at 01:25 AM

Posting a few ideas tonight for long term entry. Next idea on the list: $Celestica(CLS.US)

Extremely irrational price action but we know that saying, "Market, irrational, solvent, blah blah". 252-245 is an entry for a position with stop at 242 and no excuses.

Celestica

USCLS

First FellowNov 2, 2026 at 08:45 PM

For the folks tagging me on $AMD(AMD.US), No I don't think its a good short at moment as it finished the measured move. I would wait for ER which is tomorrow.

AMD

USAMD

First FellowNov 1, 2026 at 05:55 PM

Anthropic pays $SpaceX(SPCX.US) $1.25 billion a month for GPUs, and it can walk away with 90 days notice. I spent some time reading on neocloud business models this weekend, and there is a pattern here that explains the split in the AI trade right now.

Model 1: SpaceX is renting short, at as much as three times the long term rate. They are betting GPUs stay scarce long enough that customers keep paying up.

Model 2: Neo clouds like $Coreweave(CRWV.US), Nscale and $IREN(IREN.US) are doing the opposite. They lock customers into 5 year take or pay deals at lower prices, and the customer pays even if the racks sit empty.

If scarcity lasts, neoclouds like SpaceX win big and those long contracts look cheap. If supply catches up when the hyperscalers' own data centers open in 2027 and 2028, Anthropic gives its 90 days notice and SpaceX is holding GPUs it already paid for.

Only one of these models is right. Which one are you betting on?

SpaceX

USSPCX

First FellowOct 30, 2026 at 04:05 AM

$ServiceNow(NOW.US) with the most disgusting price action. Now that tariff lows lost with no support, if there is one place it can find support it's this YTD level which is around 112. It has to close above that level by next week.

ServiceNow

USNOW

First FellowOct 30, 2026 at 01:45 AM

Main rail roads are setting up the next trade. $Norfolk Southern(NSC.US)

"While everyone is focusing on grids and bottle necks", rail roads is where funds are parking the money. Who are the picks and shovels of Railway business? 😅

First FellowOct 25, 2026 at 07:05 PM

#SplusLessons: Distribution

A pullback on light volume is usually healthy profit taking. A break below the 50ma on heavy volume means institutions are leaving.

- $SMH shows distribution.

- $Eli Lilly(LLY.US) is a low volume pullback.

Read hundreds of charts and train your memory.

Eli Lilly

USLLY

First FellowOct 25, 2026 at 04:45 AM

Make your big decisions on the weekend while the market is closed. Write down what you trim, what you hold, and the level that changes your mind. On Monday you only follow the list. Prices moving in front of you are what make smart people do dumb things.

24*7 markets is the most bs thing we have here that's making you overthink about your good positions. How many times have the Sunday evening price action carried over to Monday morning? I want to see the data. Pay less attention to overnight numbers, focus more on what happens during the cash sessions.

#Investing #StockMarkets

First FellowOct 24, 2026 at 03:15 PM

SPY is 3% from its high and a lot of you are down 20%. Both are true right now, and that gap is where traders make the worst decisions of their year. Read this before you sell your best names or buy another weekly put.

No AI involved, hand written.. 👇

First FellowOct 22, 2026 at 12:15 AM

Many good ideas out there, $Qualys(QLYS.US) is one of the favorites at moment.

First FellowOct 21, 2026 at 03:55 AM

$Nebius(NBIS.US) seems to be the most popular chart request. My $.02

YTD is a big level for this stock as you can see, and overnight seems to have stopped at that level. In the cash session, I expect this to be a supply zone. For upside, you need a move past 190 for a turn around.

First FellowOct 14, 2026 at 03:26 PM

We are still in a world where demand in DC's is extremely high and supply is severely short. With that said, we still have to respect the weakness.

My opinion is, market will breach ATH's very soon possibly even before midterm. Lets see. $SPY $QQQ

First FellowOct 10, 2026 at 04:35 PM

Holding a 2x or 3x stocks like $TSLL $AVL $SOXL long term is a guaranteed way to lose money. Even if the underlying stock goes nowhere, your account balance will drop.

Here is exactly how daily rebalancing slowly drains your money and how to avoid the trap. 👇

First FellowSep 29, 2026 at 01:55 AM

$Sterling Infrastructure(STRL.US) as much as I love this company, I cant buy at moment. 430 is my entry, if I get it I am happy if not I move on, there are tonnes of names at entry.

Sterling Infrastructure

USSTRL

First FellowSep 25, 2026 at 01:15 AM

$Dell Tech(DELL.US) $DLLL

Q1: Is ER Avwap lost?

A: No

Q2: Is there a distribution volume?

A: No

Q3: Anything changed on the structure or fundamentals?

A: No

If you answer yes to any of the questions, this trade will be a problem. If you say No to all, you're getting 600 test.

Dell Tech

USDELL

First FellowSep 23, 2026 at 01:05 PM

$Paychex(PAYX.US) ER is out.

Revenue $1.63B vs $1.66B · Miss 2%

EPS $1.34 vs $1.35 · Miss

+12% YoY

Pre-market -7%

First FellowSep 15, 2026 at 04:46 PM

Foot traffic is down over 2% YoY in August and that killed the momentum in $Cheesecake Factory(CAKE.US) $CBRL(CBRL.US) $Cava(CAVA.US) $Brinker(EAT.US)

Our market is vulnerable and emotional, be careful with the news you feed to it.

First FellowSep 9, 2026 at 03:46 PM

$Atlassian(TEAM.US) One more high R.R idea in the software names. An entry at Covid lows 175 with a potential target of above 200. R/R stands at 1:6.

PT: 225

Atlassian

USTEAM

First FellowSep 3, 2026 at 02:26 PM

Closed trades from the last three weeks. 82% win rate. I am not posting this so you copy the P&L. The column that matters is the note.

A lot of my trades, 21ema test and Avwap breakout. That is what I call the edge, a repeatable pattern. The green is just the result.

#Trading #Investing

First FellowAug 30, 2026 at 06:26 PM

My thoughts on beaten down AI Picks and shovels. $Bloom Energy(BE.US) $Eaton(ETN.US) $GE Vernova(GEV.US) $Comfort Systems USA(FIX.US) $Celestica(CLS.US) $Sterling Infrastructure(STRL.US). Each one has its own level. Not one setup for all of them.

🧵

Bloom Energy

USBE

First FellowAug 26, 2026 at 04:56 PM

Relative strength beats “the stock looks cheap.”

In a week like this, watch which names hold prior breakout supports while peers dump, reclaim VWAP first, and make higher lows while the group shakes.

That is how you find leaders before the headline catches up.

$Dell Tech(DELL.US) is a leader for holding the levels strong, while many AI names lost the levels.

Dell Tech

USDELL

First FellowAug 26, 2026 at 01:00 AM

• Stock market rose due to lower oil prices and yields.

• Caution observed ahead of Fed inflation data and Nvidia earnings.

• $Jazz Pharma(JAZZ.US) stock bounced after FDA approved its cancer drug, Ziihera.

• $Zoom Communications(ZM.US) stock fell due to underwhelming Q2 earnings and guidance.

• $GE Vernova(GEV.US) provides solutions for AI data center power issues.

• Nasdaq shows bearish signals; $XBI is showing bullish signals..

First FellowAug 25, 2026 at 12:56 AM

$Moderna(MRNA.US) although momentum is cooling off, the setup is still in tact and holding the mighty pink line.

Stop: 128

Target1: 175+

First FellowAug 24, 2026 at 11:30 PM

$QQQ As it stands today, we got a failed uptrend. Index closed below an important moving average. Another day or two down, we will have 21ema below 50ma which will invalidated many bull thesis.

Don't blindly catch highly valued AI names and hope for a turn around. Not easy.

First FellowAug 21, 2026 at 08:16 PM

What a week overall.. $Merck(MRK.US), $Cheesecake Factory(CAKE.US), $Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US), $GLD, $SLV, $Freeport Mcmoran(FCX.US), to name a few.. I have $Merck(MRK.US), but missed $Moderna(MRNA.US).

Have a happy $Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) weekend if you know what I mean.. I am talking about the trade and chart😂