$Microsoft(MSFT.US) Looked an numbers today. Business looked clean.
- Rev ~$90B- Azure +43% - Guidance ~45% next quarter- Azure crossed $100B annual, - Copilot at 30M paid seats. Capex stayed in a range the market could live with.Why I think it spiked? This is the "returns are here" print. $Meta Platforms(META.US) and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) didn't show that. Spend is huge, but you can see it in Azure growth and backlog. Stock ripped double digits because it reset the AI narrative for the whole group.What to expect? Near term it leads the AI trade. Pullbacks get bought until the next print shows Azure slowing. Harder to chase after a 10%+ gap, easier on a digest into the move. Chart courtesy: @EconomyApp
First Fellow
First FellowSuggestions for you to follow
F
• Sandisk's stock is up over 400% this year but is in a downtrend.
• Upcoming earnings for Sandisk are anticipated. • $Amazon(AMZN.US) rose after its second-quarter earnings report. • $Apple(AAPL.US) beat earnings expectations but provided a weak sales outlook. • $Reddit(RDDT.US) fell despite exceeding earnings and sales estimates. • $Meta Platforms(META.US) declined due to investor skepticism about its AI vision. • $Sphere ENT(SPHR.US) increased after beating Q2 revenue targets.
F
• $Meta's stock fell after earnings due to increased AI spending.
• $Microsoft(MSFT.US) exceeded fiscal fourth-quarter targets driven by AI and cloud strength. • $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) declined despite surpassing Q2 earnings and revenue estimates. • SK Hynix missed Q2 sales targets but reported a surprising net profit. $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) • Lam Research's stock rose after beating fiscal Q4 estimates and raising guidance. $Lam Research(LRCX.US) • Datadog's stock surged ahead of Q2 earnings, fueled by AI expectations. $Datadog(DDOG.US) • Fortinet reported strong Q2 earnings and revenue, leading to a stock increase. $Fortinet(FTNT.US) • Garmin's stock jumped after beating Q2 targets and raising its full-year outlook. $Garmin(GRMN.US)F
$SPY If we don't reclaim 732 in the first candle(I doubt it can), we have 717 the next big level but even bigger is the one at 700 which is YTD.
F
Top movers: $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $Starbucks(SBUX.US) $Fortinet(FTNT.US)
Top Losers: $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Qualcomm(QCOM.US) $Carvana(CVNA.US)
F
$Firefly Aerospace(FLY.US) $York Space(YSS.US) $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) and even my favorite $Planet Labs(PL.US), all of them are overpriced immensely. Space is exciting but the money is not there, won't come be +ve another decade at least. They ran too much up too fast and now faces the correction.
Photonics - Similar, only 1 or 2 are fundamental names, remaining are momentum. Quantum - The less I talk about, the better.
F
So let me get this straight,
1. First Hynix ER came shit then memory crashes, bears made fun of bulls2. Then during the call it went back, so bulls made fun of bears3. Ah, KOSPI as expected started the day crashing and now bears partying again.I told you a million times don't worry about them right now. The memory and chips trend is gone, money is in energy and healthcare and even effing coca cola is going. Focus on what's moving now, not what's behind.F
Three checklist items if you want to buy a stock.
1. Identify your favorite name2. Draw Avwap from Jan 1st of the current year(YTD Avwap)3. If its above then bulls are in control, if its below then bears are in control. Buy the bullish ones, ignore the rest. Examples: $Sandisk(SNDK.US) almost at entry, $Corning(GLW.US) gave up.
F
In an ideal AI trend days I would have got this $NetApp(NTAP.US) with conviction. But right now, it's worth waiting than jumping into this one.
F
• Investors are shifting focus from AI stocks to energy and healthcare sectors.
• Eli Lilly and Dell are highlighted as stocks to watch. $Eli Lilly(LLY.US) $Dell Tech(DELL.US) • $Apple(AAPL.US) stock performed well, benefiting from high ratings. • Major companies like $Meta Platforms(META.US) and $Amazon(AMZN.US) face challenges in AI ROI this earnings week.
F
$CrowdStrike(CRWD.US) Cyber name tied to the AI security buildout. Strong stock, no chase for me so a CSP
Setup: Pullback into rising trend - LongEntry: 50maStop: 175T1: 215 | T2: 230R/R: ~1.7 to T1F
$Sellas Life Sciences(SLS.US) Biotech lottery name for me. Catalyst and crowd driven. Small size only, like 1%
Setup: LongEntry: 50maStop: 9.50T1: 14 | T2: 16R/R: ~1.8 to T1F
$SpaceX(SPCX.US) is a magnet to the downside. We retail folks have to stop believing everything he says and start thinking how market has valued companies historically, especially growth companies.
Setup: High relative weakness + downtrendEntry: 108–115Stop: 12T1: 95 | T2: 80
F
$Coreweave(CRWV.US) My least favorite neocloud. Moves 1% up on contracts, down 20% on an average day.
Setup: ShortEntry: Perhaps nowStop: 75T1: 53-50F
• Futures are rising while oil prices are dropping due to hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal.
• Major companies like Apple, Amazon, and Meta are set to report earnings soon. • A potential Federal Reserve rate hike is being discussed. • Investors are shifting focus from AI stocks to energy and healthcare sectors. • Eli Lilly's stock is performing well, hitting an all-time high before a slight pullback. • Market turmoil continues as investors adopt defensive strategies.F
$ALTC A low float high quality stock, potentially a $Dave(DAVE.US) like mover.
Setup: Weekly flagEntry: 100-96Stop: 92Target 1: 125F
$MSC Industrial Direct(MSM.US) Industrial distributor. Not sexy, Just grinding higher with estimates.
Setup: Near highsEntry: 120–126Stop: 114T1: 138 | T2: 145F
$Hewlett Packard Enterprise(HPE.US) comes from $Dell Tech(DELL.US)'s family. Enterprise tech catch up name. Less hype than the chip leaders, still moving.
Setup: Strong 12 week uptrendEntry: 45–47.50Stop: 42.50T1: 55 | T2: 65R/R: ~1.8F
If there is something for us to cheer about in the market, its $XLE and some names like $Eli Lilly(LLY.US) $Johnson & Johnson(JNJ.US) $Abbvie(ABBV.US). Lily especially is giving us something to hope for. I will hold longer.
F
• Nasdaq composite fell to a four-week low amid rising oil prices due to U.S.-Iran tensions.
• Alphabet and Tesla stocks experienced significant declines. • $ASML(ASML.US) stock rebounded after a strong Q2 earnings report. • Intel's stock surged following a major earnings beat and positive guidance. $Intel(INTC.US) • T-Mobile's stock dropped despite a Q2 earnings beat; management rejected a Starlink deal. • Google stock fell amid concerns over AI leadership and increased spending. • Novocure's stock rose after reporting strong sales growth for its cancer treatment.
F
$SPY looks beautiful, screaming for a pink line test. When the major indices like this and $QQQ are below an important MA like 50, I will take a step back and question gap ups.
F
We all want asymmetric upside until we meet asymmetric boredom. Holding through the dead middle of a thesis is where most edges go to die, not on the entry candles. The chart doesn’t care that you’re restless. The business doesn’t either.
$SPY at highs while underlying sectors fluctuate. Sitting on hands is not a bad idea at all.F
$Western Digital(WDC.US) is my favorite after $Micron Tech(MU.US). +236% YTD, not bad right?
Western Digital rode that wave hard, then joined the July cooloff with the rest of the hardware names. If you’re in it, trail it.If you’re late, wait for the market to offer a better price than pride. We need some cooling off in these names.
F
$DRAM is still an interesting short setup. Some names like $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Western Digital(WDC.US) while backtesting is holding this up, once this trend-line gives up I think we will see a good roll on the rock.
PT: Later once we see the breakdown begins.