Jim

$SPX MONTHLY - A LOT HAS HAPPENED SINCE THE 2022 AI BIG BANG CHAT GPT LAUNCH.

MONTHLY BAR 55 is MAY of 2027.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

On July 29, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) closed at $190.01 and Williams %R (14) printed −100.00.

-100.00!!!!!!!!!!!!

That is not merely “oversold” — under the Williams %R calculation, −100 means price closed at the very bottom of its 14-period range.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US): −100 → Momentum Reversal

July 29

Close: $190.01

Williams %R: −100

Extreme downside momentum / capitulation

Price testing the lower Bollinger Band

Now

NVDA: approximately $222

Price has reclaimed the 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 MA and 100 MA

Upper Bollinger Band has been broken

Williams %R has ripped from −100 toward the opposite extreme

Previous momentum dashboard showed −9.31

MACD has turned bullish

RSI moved to 61.6

Money flow remains positive

That is a full momentum regime reversal.

The important lesson

Williams %R at −100 wasn't the buy signal by itself.

The signal became powerful because it occurred alongside:

Washout → support → moving-average reclaim → momentum reversal → breakout.

And look at what happened afterward:

$190 → $222+ in roughly a week.

That's about a 17% underlying move.

What I see now

Williams %R moving from −100 to near −10 shouldn't automatically be interpreted as:

“Overbought = SELL.”

In a strong momentum reversal, an overbought Williams %R can instead indicate that buyers have seized control of the tape.

The next confirmation is whether NVDA can stay pinned in the upper portion of its 14-day range while holding roughly $218–$212.

That July 29 −100 print may end up being one of the cleanest momentum-reset signals of this entire $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) move.

CAPITULATION: −100 → RECLAIM → BREAKOUT → MOMENTUM EXPANSION.

Wyckoff Summary: $QQQ

Jump Across the Creek, SOS, and Back-Up

Here’s the clean way to think about the current $QQQ setup through a Wyckoff lens:

1. Spring

First, the market printed the spring at $661.14.

That was the shakeout. Price briefly broke down, trapped sellers, then quickly reversed back into the range. In Wyckoff terms, that is often the final flush that clears supply before a stronger move begins.

2. Jump Across the Creek (JAC)

The Jump Across the Creek was the breakout move where price surged above the local resistance line with force.

For QQQ, that was the August 4th move:

strong wide-range up candle

breakout above the $700–$710 area

reclaim of the 50-day moving average

higher volume

demand clearly overpowering supply

That is the market “jumping the creek.”

3. Sign of Strength (SOS)

The SOS is the actual proof that buyers are in control.

In this case, the JAC and SOS are basically working together:

strong upward spread

expanding volume

breakout through resistance

follow-through from the prior rally attempt

So the August 4th breakout candle can be viewed as both the Jump Across the Creek and a Sign of Strength.

4. Back-Up to the Creek (BU)

After the breakout, Wyckoff expects price to often pull back and test the old resistance, which should now become support.

That is the Back-Up to the Creek.

For QQQ, that showed up as the pullback after the breakout:

price came back toward the breakout zone

tested the reclaimed support area

volume cooled versus the breakout session

sellers did not fully regain control

That is constructive. A healthy market often jumps first, then backs up to test the breakout.

5. What it means

The bullish sequence is:

Spring → Jump Across the Creek → Sign of Strength → Back-Up to the Creek → Markup

That is the roadmap bulls want.

6. Key QQQ levels

Here’s how I’d frame it now:

$710 = major support / creek area

$720 = reclaim zone that improves momentum

$723.85 = breakout / FTD reference

$730 = next major upside checkpoint

$700 = important danger line if support fails

7. Simple bottom line

The current idea is:

JAC: buyers blasted price through resistance

SOS: the breakout showed real strength and demand

BU: the pullback is the test of whether old resistance can become support

If $QQQ holds the $710 area and reclaims $720–$724, the Wyckoff markup thesis stays alive and the path toward $730+ stays open.

If $710 fails, then the backup is failing and risk rises for a move back toward $700.

Being that I'm a west Coast Trader, I try and read a few minutes after the opening bell power hour is over.

Taking 10 to 20 minutes before 9am to center myself is great for my trading style.

Ideas come, ideas get flushed.

I can center my purpose, focus and my tactics.

Trading is a process over time.

It's not a game of pinball.

Ideas and Trades Need to Simmer before they can really develop great flavor.

That takes a good time Horizon.

Call it at least a Fort Night.

(14 days+)

Sometimes 90 to 180 Days.

Daily Reminder:

Focus Your Energy on Yourself, from that point of view comes great perspective.

$SPY $QQQ $SPX

$QQQ This FEELS LIKE SUMMER OF 2024

2024 = $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) IS ABSOLUTE FIRE FROM FEB TO JULY. (KINDA LIKE $Micron Tech(MU.US) in 2026)

THEN THEY ALL DUMPED TECH ON JULY OPEX INTO OVERSOLD YEN CARRY TRADE AUGUST 5th. A.K.A AI MOMENTUM UNWIND OF 2026.

THEN THEY BOUGHT AUGUST ON FIRE UNTIL DADDY FOMC HAWK TALKED AND KILLED MOMENTUM AT JACKSON HOLE 8/22 to 8/24.

SEASONAL DIP INTO SEPT THEN A RELOAD INTO DEC 31st + 27% Overall. $QQQ

@Norseman1 @BeardoTrader @GroupFinom @StockPatternPro Thoughts???

Just looking at similar setups, would love to hear your thoughts on it.

$QQQ I like the Action - Just Give me Some Motherfuckin Volume and we can pres it to $750 by 9/18.

WHALES GOTTA STEP IN THIS WEEK.

We want that VOLUME Candle on IRAN PEACE AGREEMENT.

TOP OF BB 2.0 = $730

STOCK BUYBACK BLACKOUT IS OVER FOR THE MOST PART. CORP BUYING/HEDGE FUNDS AND OTHER JUMP IN THE POOL, THE WATER IS WARM.

$AMD(AMD.US) Earnings Implied Move

Earnings AH

Options are pricing approximately a ±10% move tonight. Current estimates are around ±9.7% to ±10.3%.

Using $518.81:

Expected dollar move: approximately ±$50–$53

Upper implied range: $569–$572

Lower implied range: $465–$469

My working range

$AMD(AMD.US): $465 downside ↔ $572 upside

7-day IV is near 99.4%, versus roughly 80.7% at 30 days, meaning the earnings premium is heavily concentrated in the front end.

Key takeaway:

A move inside roughly ±10% is “expected” and could still produce major IV crush.

A move above $572 or below $465 would represent a genuine options-market surprise.

NO $MAGS NO BAGS.....

Well, Here Comes Papa.....

The Old WallStreet Players are Fed UP with Korean High BETA NIGHTLY MEMORY SWINGS.

They want the Old Ghost Phantom Rolls Royce to take them to the Ball....

Peep The Action.....

1. Bottom Test

2. Spring

3. Jump Across the Creek (Today 8/3)

4. Follow Through Day (Larger Volume Candle) 1%+ Gain, More Volume then the Day Before

5. Now we wait for "Back Up to the Creek" to Reload and Test into Higher ATH's.

p.s. Money Flow is positive now....

$MAGS $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $QQQ

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) Dead Money -

Earnings Tomorrow After the bell, could weigh on $QQQ as they fall to $100.

Problem: Data Centers in Space

Problem: Endless Supply of Shares

Problem: LockUp Ending For Some - Selling Continues.

Under $100 Kinda Interested, at $80 I am a Buyer with 2 Year Leaps, Maybe 3 Year.

They need until 2030 to REALLY Smash IMO

30% Shares are SHORT Right Now

Price BELOW 8 EMA and Money Flow Negative

NFA

@StockPatternPro

$Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) = >>>>triple-bottom structure in Williams %R, with three separate tests near the −100 extreme-oversold zone in late July.

Earnings are August 10th with 100% Implied Volatility.

More importantly, price appears to have made lower lows while Williams %R held roughly equal lows.

That creates a potential bullish momentum divergence: selling pressure pushed price lower, but the oscillator did not deteriorate further.

What confirms the reversal:

$Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) at $30.29 and reclaimed:

8 EMA: $29.18

200-day MA: $30.22

The next confirmation zone is tight:

50-day MA: $30.63

21 EMA: $30.91

A daily close above $30.90–$31.00 would strengthen the reversal setup. Then the next upside level is the Bollinger midpoint near $32.44.

Risk levels

The pattern weakens if price loses $27.57–$27.77 again. The lower Bollinger Band around $25.42 is the deeper support level.

Bottom line: Triple bottom in the oscillator—yes. Bullish divergence—likely.

But the price reversal becomes much more credible only after $Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) clears and holds $31, followed by $32.40.

@Liathetrader @alc2022 @NighthawkTradez @himshouse

$SPY — AS SIMPLE AS I CAN PUT IT

$SPX $QQQ $SMH

The market has started a new rally attempt, but one green day does not confirm the bottom.

The timeline

Day 1: Thursday, July 30

Day 2: Friday, July 31

Day 3: Monday, August 3

Follow-Through Day window:

Tuesday, August 4 through Friday, August 7

During that window, $SPY needs to deliver a true Jump Across the Creek:

A powerful green candle, preferably +1.25% or more, closing through the $750–$755 resistance zone on volume higher than the previous session.

That would show institutions are stepping back in and confirm that this recovery attempt has real buying power behind it—similar to the April 8 Follow-Through Day shown on the chart.

What could create the catalyst?

The cleanest path would be:

IRAN MOU SIGNED. TERMS AGREED. WAR RISK PREMIUM REMOVED.

That could help:

Push oil lower

Ease inflation expectations

Cool PCE pressure

Stabilize Treasury yields

Allow capital to rotate back into risk assets

What happens without confirmation?

Without the high-volume breakout, this remains only a Vanna bounce.

$SPY could reject near resistance, fade back into August chop and potentially revisit the $729–$730 recovery low, with the July lows coming back into play if that support fails.

There are only 67 trading sessions from July 31 through the November 3 election, including Election Day and excluding Labor Day.

The market needs clarity.

Inflation needs to cool.

Oil needs to cool.

The war premium needs to disappear.

GET THE DEAL DONE.

THE PEOPLE ARE OVER THE ENDLESS WAR.

@WhiteHouse @SecScottBessent @SecRubio @VP @PressSec @federalreserve @SecWar

$SPY is at the GAMMA Flip ZONE $737

Does this Tactical Bounce have teeth or is it just a Vanna Put Closing Rally?

$Apple(AAPL.US) I want to talk to the Cats who Took 12 Million Shares at $342/343 Today only to Create a Indecisive Bearish Spinning Top Doji.

July 28 candle:

Open: $340.03

High: $342.89

Low: $335.60

Close: $339.75

The real body is only $0.28, while the full intraday range is $7.29.

Buyers pushed toward $343, sellers knocked it down near $335.60, and price finished almost exactly where it opened.

🚨 THE GLOBAL SELLOFF DOESN’T SLEEP — IT ROTATES.

Wall Street sells off.

The U.S. closes.

Japan opens and catches the fear.

China, Hong Kong and Taiwan stay under pressure.

Then Korea wakes up—with leverage, margin and memory stocks sitting directly in the blast zone.

By the time America wakes up, U.S. futures are already reacting to the damage overseas.

This is the danger of a 24-hour fear loop:

USA weakness → Asia liquidation → KOSPI pressure → U.S. futures weakness → repeat.

When markets are highly leveraged, selling can create more selling. Margin calls do not care about your conviction.

⚠️ Size down.

⚠️ Protect capital.

⚠️ Do not blindly buy the first dip.

When one market closes in fear, the next can open in panic.

$Micron Tech(MU.US)

I know @Norseman1 Loves Waves so this is for you bud! =p

Can You See it X Fam???

WAVE 1 The Big Bang

Wave 2 Cool Down Retest

Wave 3 Early Peak

Wave 4 Retrace Half of Wave 3

Wave 5 Blow Off Top

Wave A - Retracement Back to 4 The Last Consolidation Zone

Wave B = Bull Trap

Wave C = Capitulation....... $718

Destination Back to Wave 2 Consolidation Zone.

Then after the Darkest Night Comes the Brightest Day.

New Dawn: Wave 1 Begins Again.... =p

I'm just the Messenger, this Elliott Wave Theory was created in 1938. =p

The best thing for this CHOP/DROP/FLIP/FLOP Market is a TOTAL FLUSH to EXTREME FEAR.

IDEALLY IMO WARSH IS A TOTAL HAWK - EVEN RAISE RATES 0.25 and THEN TRUMP UNLEASH ON IRAN TO FINISH THE JOB 100%.

We'd PULL BACK SO FAR - COLD $8T on the SIDELINES WOULD WAKE THE FUCK UP!

If you've ever had a wound, festering, the best thing is to FLUSH it WITH ALCOHOL BURN OUT ALL THE DECAY DEAD SHIT AND LET IT COME BACK HEALTHY AGAIN.

$QQQ 37 BARS OF CHOP/FLOP IS SLOW PAINFUL DEATH.

LET US GET that 100M RED VOLUME CAPITULATION CANDLE IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS AND we CAN RUN ALL THE WAY TO MARCH of 2027 IMO.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) There were days this was getting $100M to $150M in Calls. Now it's $10M Calls $12M Puts.

You NEED WHALES to Move Markets.

Until Then - It's Chop

$QQQ $Destination $671 IMO 100D SMA

But getting Oversold - Not Fully Yet But Close...

I may sell My PUTS and Flip into a Long if we bounce Real hard on a Selling Capitulation Candle this week.

Need to see what the HAWKs at the FED say Plus Manage Big Cap Tech Earnings.

Patience - If you are holding Puts Make sure you book those wins and watch THETA Decay.

Ask Me questions if needed....

$Micron Tech(MU.US) will Have a RUN in Q4 to Q1.

For Now - PUMPS are BEING NET SOLD!

Memory Summer = RUBICON TRAIL

VERY HARD TO CROSS - OLD SCHOOL KNOWLEDGE

$Micron Tech(MU.US) Price Below 8/21/50 and Chinese Competition is Coming online.

Tactical Bounces Sure - All The time.

But the Multi- Month Run it had may be stalled for awhile.

$Apple(AAPL.US) vs $QQQ DEX AUG 21st

See the difference.....

$QQQ 12-13B Negative

$Apple(AAPL.US) 1-2B Positive

$QQQ has a Dead Weight Anchor on it....

$680 AUG 21st

$JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US)

1. Above the 8 EMA

2. Elder Force Above Zero

3. MACD Positive

8/21/50/100 Trending Higher

BOOOLISH $JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US)

'Houthis say they don’t seek to close key Bab al-Mandeb Strait' - The Times Of Israel

What's Funny - These Cats Taking Pot Shots at Anakin in his POD Racer Now Control the $45T USA Stock Market Lol

Add to that the Kospi Margin Junkies and we got GUMBO Salad.

What's Your Assessment of the Situation Gunny?

It's a Cluster Fuck Sir....

MARKET WHIPSAW ISN’T JUST A TECH STORY

The violent rotation is spreading across the entire market.

Airlines went from -16%, to +34%, then back to -12%.

Home furniture swung from -20%, to +26%, then reversed -8%.

Homebuilders and restaurants are showing the same pattern.

This is what a chaotic tape looks like:

sharp selloffs, aggressive relief rallies, then another fast reversal as capital constantly rotates between sectors.

The lesson is simple: do not confuse a short-term bounce with a durable trend.

In this environment, we protect capital, scale entries, take profits when offered and avoid chasing extended moves.

Tech may get the headlines, but the whipsaw is happening everywhere.

Stay agile.

Respect the tape.

Paper cut losses before they become deep wounds.

PROTECT CAPITAL..... 💯

Today’s -0.32% loss is a paper cut—not a reason to force trades, revenge trade, or overextend.

In an early-morning chop regime, the goal is simple:

PAPER CUT.

PAPER CUT.

PAPER CUT.

Keep losses small.

Stay agile.

Reduce size when conditions are unclear.

Rotate into protection when the tape weakens.

Cash, hedges, puts, or simply doing nothing are all valid positions.

We do not need to win every trading day.

We need to protect enough capital and confidence to press when the market finally gives us a high-probability setup.

Small losses keep us in the game.

Big losses take us out.

Protect today. Profit tomorrow.

Losses are part of the Game, How big is Part of Your Strategy and Abilty to Manage Risk.