Jim

Jim

Thoughts on the Weekly Survey for 5/13?

Bearish 35%???

Bullish 36-37%

5/12/2026 $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) @GROK printed a hammer-like candle, but I’d call it a bullish hammer / demand-tail candle, not a “textbook perfect” hammer.

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) 5/12/2026 Candle

Open: 736.89

High: 738.84

Low: 731.83

Close: 737.40

That means:

Body: 737.40 − 736.89 = $0.51

Lower wick: 736.89 − 731.83 = $5.06

Upper wick: 738.84 − 737.40 = $1.44

Why it qualifies

The lower wick is almost 10x the body, which is classic hammer behavior:

Sellers pushed price down hard intraday, but buyers stepped in and reclaimed almost the entire candle by the close.

That is bullish demand defense, especially because it happened near the rising 8 EMA / 21

EMA structure after a strong move.

Why it is not “perfect”

A textbook hammer usually has:

Tiny body near the high

Long lower wick

Little to no upper wick

Usually appears after a pullback/downtrend

This one has a visible upper wick, and it is occurring after a strong rally, so it is more accurately:

Bullish demand-tail / hammer-style continuation candle

Key level from this candle

The line in the sand is the low: $731.83.

As long as SPY holds above that low, this candle says:

buyers defended the dip.

A break below $731.83 would weaken the hammer signal.

Confirmation level

You want to see $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) push back above:

$738.84 high, then $740.79 recent high

That would confirm continuation and likely put the next upside magnet around the $739–$750 zone.

TL;DR

Yes, it is a hammer-like bullish demand candle on $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US).

Not perfect textbook because it came after a rally and has some upper wick, but the message is clear:

Dip got bought hard.

Bulls defended the 8 EMA zone.

Confirmation comes above $738.84–$740.79.

Betting Against These Amazingly Successful People.

Wild... they are the 1% of 1%!

Bet against them, ok bro.

Fam Down days are OK.

Test the Trend, Real Diamond or Fake Lab Grown stuff, lol

$VIX Waking Up, But VIX Expiration is tomorrow.

We have $12T In CEO Companies in China this week.

Can they create a sense of calm and peace talks with IRAN to settle down OIL/Yields and Trade??

$Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) Options Collar

As a Trader, you want to ride the Trend in the long term direction but with 140%+ Implied Volatility, that can literally be a 180 on the flip of a dime.

Going into Earnings, I let my Calls Run since they were already explosive, but I realized the team needed to deliver on earnings.

They did not.

The flip side is riding puts for a week or two, as IV bleeds out and a new trend is formed.

That's the Long/Short Collar.

Obviously, I want the stock to go Long and Short Squeeze, but that doesn't always go your way.

Either way, if trading, through a very High Volatility Window, carry a hedge.

Open to Debate Fam!!

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)

MAY 2026 CATALYST MATRIX 🔥

The setup is constructive.

My updated read: ~60% Bullish Base Case for May.

Why?

The bullish side:

✅ U.S.-Iran conflict winding down = lower oil / lower vol risk

✅ Q1 earnings season remains strong

✅ AI capex + data-center demand still driving leadership

✅ NVDA earnings on May 20 could be the index ignition point

✅ Buybacks + M&A flow support risk-on sentiment

But the bear traps are real:

⚠️ CPI on May 12

⚠️ PPI on May 13

⚠️ FOMC minutes on May 20

⚠️ PCE inflation on May 28

⚠️ Trump-Xi Summit headline risk

This is not a “blind bull” setup.

This is a conditional bull setup.

The upside unlock is simple:

Inflation calms...

Oil stays contained.

AI earnings deliver.

The Fed does not sound overly hawkish.

Geopolitics do not shock the tape.

If that combo hits, May can absolutely turn into a risk-on melt-up window.

But if CPI/PPI/PCE come in hot, yields rise, or the Fed pushes back on cuts, the market can flip fast.

My view:

Earnings + AI = Bullish engine

Inflation + Fed + Oil = Risk wall

May 2025 gave the SPX a +6% type move.

May 2026 has the ingredients.

Now the tape has to prove it.

TL;DR:

Constructive for equities, but fragile. Bullish if inflation cools and AI earnings deliver. Bearish if yields, oil, or Fed pressure spike.

💯

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US)

WHERE DO WE OPEN UP TOMORROW MORNING?

GAP UP?

FLAT?

GAP DOWN?

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) I am NOT Bearish LONG TERM.

NOT YET.....

Weekly BULL Trend IN TACT for NOW.

BUT...... BOND VIGILANTES NEED TO EAT ALSO.

THIS IS MECHANICAL AND YOU CANT LEAVE THEM OUT ALL THE TIME.

Look at MAY of 2025.

AFTER OUR 4/7 RECOVERY - WE STALLED WHEN THE 10 YEAR RATE PEAKED - AND SLOWED DOWN EQUITIES.

BUT THE UPTREND CONTINUED.

So AS LONG AS OIL CHILLS ($107) OUT SOMEWHAT AND RATES EVENTUALLY COOL WE COULD PULL BACK SOME, BUT GRIND HIGHER ON GOOD EARNINGS INTO JUNE/JULY.

BUYBACKS AND COOLING RATES HOPEFULLY COMING IN A WEEK OR TWO.

10 YEAR WAKING UP

OIL = $105

NO BUENO FOR STOCKS NEAR TERM...

Latest Candle says they are BUYERS at the TOP Pushing it Higher too.

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) PUT HOLDERS — Why some Red days don’t pay the way you expect. (VEGA)

Today was a textbook example:

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) closed yesterday near 715/716 and traded down near 711 today.

Normally traders assume puts should rip.

But the missing ingredient was $VIX / implied volatility.

$VIX actually compressed lower while $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) fell.

That means:

🔻 Delta helped puts (price down)

🔻 Gamma helped near strike moves

🔻 Theta kept decaying premium

🔻 Vega got hit as volatility fell

Result:

Price was red… but fear was not.

When $VIX drops during a $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) selloff, puts often gain less than expected because volatility premium is being removed.

Best put environment:

✅ SPY down

✅ VIX up

✅ Gamma accelerating near strikes

Weak put environment:

⚠️ SPY down

⚠️ VIX down

⚠️ Vega offsets gains

Tape message today:

“Market lower, but not panicked lower.”

Learn this and you’ll understand why some perfect-looking put trades underperform.

#SPY #SPX #VIX #OptionsTrading #Greeks #Volatility #Gamma #Vega

@market_sleuth @itsmichaelluu @SuperLuckeee @blondebroker1 @AndrewHiesinger @QuantData @astocks92

🍺📈 Stock market valuations explained the only way that actually makes sense:

Beer = fair/intrinsic value

Foam = market premium & hype

Left to right = your portfolio options:

1. Solid blue-chip value

2. Quality growth

(reasonable premium)

3. Richly valued growth

(high expectations)

4. Full speculative meme stock (bubble territory)

Moral of the story:

Too much head, and you’re probably overpaying 😂

Which mug is YOUR portfolio drinking right now?

#Stocks #CraftBeer #InvestingHumor

@Mr_Derivatives @BeardoTrader @cantonmeow

Source: Jim

My Opinion:

Last week:

A Weekly Indecisive Candle Doesn't Negate a Bullish Upward Trend.

This is mostly professional money managers waiting for forward guidance. (THIS WEEK)

Instead let's look at the Monthly Candle after it closes this week.

That's a bigger Macro view for me.

Source: Jim

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) haven't really had a run yet, IMO.

They are pushing higher but $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $250+, $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $400 $Apple(AAPL.US) $300

If that happens we're headed higher into July.

War Headlines ect in tow but if those 3 big Dawgs hold Court that's huge.

What other large Cap you like to grow still?

Source: Jim

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) $712 is CLEAR COVID CHANNEL RESISTANCE.

CAN WE GO HIGHER - YES

WITH FOMC DRIFT......

This is the HOLD in place Drift Right into FOMC.

So Drift Outward while sustaining $710 ish.

That Allows Price to Go Higher UP The Covid Channel without Resistance, which $712 Clearly is.

$VIX is 20 to 18 - If Market Makers SUPPRESS VOL Like they did NOV to DEC we can just Drift to the Right.

Obviously WAR NEWS HEADLINES IS DRIVING MARKET ALGOS SO IT'S A COIN FLIP HOW WE GO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL FOMC/EARNINGS DECIDE THE PATH FORWARD.

Source: Jim

$Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) @GROK analyze the tape from today as well as list any news related items from today or the last 5 days.

Source: Jim

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) DEX SEPT 18th, 2026 @grok analyze this.

Source: Jim

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) @GROK DEX FRIDAY MAY 1st, After FOMC and MAG 4 Earnings that week. A Cluster at $695 is showing up. Analyze this....

Source: Jim

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) JUNE 18th, TWD Opex @grok analyze this data. This is POST $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Earnings and after April/May Earnings Season wraps up.

Source: Jim

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) @GROK analyze the tape from today.

Source: Jim

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) @grok Analyze the tape from today.

Source: Jim

$iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(IBIT.US) = $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US)

2027 2028 Leap to the 200D SMA IMO

VOLUME SHELF + $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) RAMP INTO THE NEXT HALVING CYCLE.

Source: Jim

$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)

Using the 7-day IV fwith GOOG at $335.23, the estimated implied earnings move into 4/29 AH is about:

±$22.14, or about ±6.6%.

That gives an expected range of roughly:

Upside: $357.37

Downside: $313.09

Formula used:

Stock Price × IV × √(Days / 365)

With your data:

Price = $335.23

7-day IV ≈ 47.7%

Time = 7 days

$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) earnings implied move for 4/29 AH:

about ±$22.14 (±6.6%)

With GOOG at $335.23, options are pricing a post-earnings range of roughly $313 to $357.

$350 Previous ATH

NFA

Source: Jim