Jim

2026 = 37 WEEKS of TRADING TO DATE

21 WEEKS CONSOLIDATING 57%

4 WEEKS CONTRACTING 11%

12 WEEKS EXPANDING 32%

57% WAS SPENT GOING SIDEWAYS!

11% was SCARY AS HELL!

32% WAS GLORIOUS BULL!

15 TRADING WEEKS LEFT in 2026

USING RECENT PERCENTAGES WE EXTRAPOLATE

8.55 WEEKS SIDEWAYS DRIFT

4.8 WEEKS GLORIOUS EXPANSION

1.65 WEEKS SCARY AS HELL

THETA OR TIME IS YOUR MOST IMPORTANT TRADING ALLY!

NOW As a Trader You Need to Deterine which Phase are we headed into Next.....

Drift

Consolidate

Expansion....

We Know NOV to APRIL = 19-0 +15%

Post Earnings Expansion - Clarity on the Elections and Earnings Validation...

For now ---- Drift has a 57% Probability...

$QQQ 81 Trading Days = +0.29% or +$2.09

The market sometimes decides 2-3 times a year to just go NOWHERE.

While we Sleep Tonight Japan is Awake.

Hike Priced in so let's see how the Yen Looks after a rate hike tonight and Algos react pre market.

US Treasury has $75B 5 Year to Sell on 9/23.

Everything getting HOT!

The Bank of Japan decision is scheduled for tomorrow, Friday, September 18th.

Markets are expecting them to raise the policy rate to 1.25% at the conclusion of their two-day meeting.

Direct from the NY FED -

They are Buying $10B LESS From now until Oct 14th Compared to Late May and June.

That is another way we can Wobble into Sept Month End as Stock Buyback Blackout Sets in and NY Fed Steps back with $10B Less then say May and June Schedule.

A $10.74B reduction, or roughly 41%, in gross scheduled buying.

June-ish setup

~$16.3B reinvestment

+$10B RMP / incremental balance-sheet expansion

~$26.3B total purchases

Now through Oct. 14

~$15.6B reinvestment

$0 RMP

~$15.6B total purchases

@LindaRaschke @Norseman1 @WalterDeemer @TheRonnieVShow

NY Fed liquidity impulse = materially weaker through mid-October.

Gross T-bill purchases have fallen ~41% versus the May–June schedule, but the bigger change is that Reserve Management Purchases have fallen from +$10B to $0.

The remaining ~$15.6B is reinvestment activity rather than incremental RMP reserve creation.

$SPY Volume DOESN'T LIE....

The BEST RUNS Come From BIG RED OVERSOLD CANDLES AS ALGOS ABSOLUTELY THROW UP.

TRUST ME - YOU WANT EXTREME FEAR.

IT CREATES THE BEST RISK REWARD PROFILE FOR ALGOS WHO NET BUY IN $30 - $50B Blocks NEAR Quarter END Rebalancing.

Let the Index Come to you in Extreme Fair Value Range.

That is the setup that Stacks for 6-12 Months.

BOX Trading a 3 Month Range is Just Killing PUTS/CALLS with NO One Winning but the Market Makers.

HOT or COLD

LUKE WARM IS ABOUT AS BAD AS IT GETS....

The Productivity Paradox J-Curve.

1. Invest Heavily

2. Trough

3. Harvest

Steam Engine

Electricity

Cars

Computers

Autonomous Cars

Ai

Agentic Ai

Robotics

The challenge near term is the debt financing until you get to Full Harvest Mode.

We're close but more like 2028 max earnings gains after heavy investments continue into 2027.

This Debt Offering with Yield + Credit Spread is more attractive than US Treasuries and will keep a floor on the Treasury rates elevated to stay competitive with Mag offering.

No doubt yields will fall this week if the FED Raises Rates. But the floor is in to stay competitive with the Mags Debt offerings.

Stocks can absorb all of this, it just might take a few weeks IMO.

Several Magnificent Seven companies issued massive USD-denominated bond offerings to fund AI infrastructure and capital expenditures:

* Meta Platforms: Issued a $25 billion multi-tranche bond deal featuring 30-year (2056) tranche bonds priced at a 6.30% coupon.

* Amazon: Returned for multiple offerings, including a $25 billion mega-issuance with yield rates ranging from ~5.2% to 5.8% depending on the maturity (5-year to 30-year paper).

* Alphabet (Google): Alongside its sterling century bond, Alphabet issued a bulk USD mega-deal with coupons set between 4.85% and 5.55% across 5- to 30-year maturities.

* Apple: Tapped the USD market with smaller multi-tranche deals carrying coupons generally in the 4.50% to 5.15% range.

Alphabet's last British pound bond offering in February 2026 was issued across multiple tranches, highlighted by an ultra-rare 100-year bond maturing in February 2126 with a 6.125% coupon.

The full sterling offering included five tranches:

* 3-year: 4.125% due 2029

* 6-year: 4.625% due 2032

* 15-year: 5.500% due 2041

* 32-year: 5.875% due 2058

* 100-year: 6.125% due 2126

$400B set for 2027 in Debt Offering

@zerohedge @Banana3Stocks @GroupFinom @BeardoTrader

$SPY $QQQ

$SPY RESPECTABLE 9/11 BUT Again, the Candle did NOT Impress.

I think best I heard From Hedge Fund Manager.

On a 9/11 POP we would SELL into Strength but NOT Deploy New Capital Until After FOMC and Markets Settle in to Rate Hike or Hold Decisions.

That is a Fair assessment IMO

The BATTLE FOR JUNE 2nd HIGH $SPY

$758 GAP FILL IS GOOD

NOW DEFEND OR LOSE $758

SMART MONEY ON A COOL CPI PRINT WILL SELL INTO STRENGTH AND NOT DEPLOY NEW MONEY UNTIL AFTER FOMC AND GLOBAL BANK SYNCHRONIZATION.

A LOT OF NEGATIVE VANNA UNDER THE HOOD.

*PUTS*

A MORNING 9/11 POP WON'T SURPRISE ME, JUST CAN IT HOLD ALL DAY OR FADE BY LUNCH....

$SMH

Got Some Late Summer Weak Knees...

Ran it Up on 5x Leverage - Blow Off Top

Distribution = 2-3 Months Now Price Below

8>21>50 and 50 is CURLING DOWN to $500.

I like Semis, just after FOMC, After XI Visit and into Q4/Q1 as End of Year Setup Gets Better with END of Year Buying Deals Pull Ahead.

True Story - My Old Bucket of $500M Spend was done with but my Peer Could Not Spend theirs by EOY DEC 31st.

Boss Came to me and said can you spend an EXTRA $40M by DEC 31st?

Basically Make Up the Spend for my Peer. I am like yeah, so I pulled in Q1 Gear into Q4, Made Sure it Shipped and delivered by 12/31.

That is called an END of YEAR Deal. This can help Q4 into Q1 Sales Numbers for Numerous Tech Companies.

Either way $SMH Got That Weak Knee Look to Me.

Caution....

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) The Challenge since the 10/1 Split is that this is a lotto trade for many or Call Selling Premium Trade.

Look at today's biggest trades.

The Whole list except a few are Aug 28th.

That's a LOW Conviction Trade.

Ideally we see NOV 20th $300, or January 15th $300.

But AUG 28th is Gambling Dawg cause the IV is Jacked and IV Crush is Real....

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) -$39M in Calls Coming Out -

Air Coming Out of the Balloon for now.

+10M in PUTS

This can lead to MUTED Price Action on 8/26.

$195 is a Sweet Entry IMO into January.

What changed since 8/21?

Interestingly, IV actually increased into earnings.

8/21: 7-day IV ≈ 55.95%

8/24: 7-day IV ≈ 57.37%

So the market is charging a little more for the earnings event even though $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) just dropped −2.91% today.

The implied percentage move has moved only slightly, roughly 6.0% → 6.1%, but because NVDA fell from ~$215.80 to $208.48, the implied dollar move is now closer to ±$12.70.

The technical setup makes those levels VERY interesting

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

8 EMA: $216.17

21 EMA: $214.58

50 DMA: $207.94

100 DMA: $206.97

200 DMA: $195.34

That creates a pretty clean earnings map:

Bullish ER → ~$221

Reclaims 8/21 EMA

Puts $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) back above the broken short-term trend

Then $225–230 becomes the next major battle

Bearish ER → ~$195.75

Breaks 50 DMA

Breaks 100 DMA

And almost perfectly lands on the 200 DMA at $195.34

That coincidence is the part I would highlight.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) EARNINGS ROADMAP

$221–222 = market-priced bullish move

$214–216 = reclaim zone

$207–208 = 50/100 DMA battlefield NOW

$195–196 = market-priced bearish move + 200 DMA

So essentially, the options market is pricing NVDA's downside earnings scenario almost directly into its 200-day moving average.

Case of the Monday's....

$QQQ $GLD

$QQQ EMA 8/21 About to Cross Over Negative

MACD Daily Already Crossed Over Negative

Williams -94 to -99

$QQQ Needs to Fill the $701 GAP at a Minimum

Should Complete that action by 8/27 IMO which is BAR 21 from the Recent Swing Low.

$695 Next Point of Support...

NFA

$VIX

OPEX TODAY - HEDGE UNWIND - ROLLING IMO

Some monster Institutional Prints...

They are smart Multi-Legs

MULTI-MILLION-DOLLAR BOOK.

Today: -$90.28 (-0.01%).

That’s not luck.

That’s risk management.

Anybody can look like a genius when everything is going up.

GREAT TRADERS ARE BUILT THROUGH TOUGH TIMES.

Protect capital.

Control position size.

Hedge when necessary.

Stay disciplined.

Live to trade another day.

The goal isn’t to win every day.

The goal is to stay in the game long enough for your Edge to compound. 💪📈

$VIX if you own LONG dated $VIX Calls say SEPT/OCT/DEC Never Ever Sell them on Weekly $VIX Expiration Day.

That is the near term Flush Low as VIX Calls Expire or Roll or Close out. This normally crushes VIX in the morning, maybe all day.

Selling $VIX Calls is best on Friday into Weekend Fear or Monday after a Bloody Sunday in Asia Markets.

Texas Two Step...

$SMH Could catch a small bid off Asia Overnight but to print a Red Candle on a day a lot of market gained shows some weakness.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) being the Unlock Key for sure, but that is 5-6 Trading Days Away.

Also - if $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) $Coinbase(COIN.US) $GLD Catch a Bid, that leaves less Retail Fomo Buying for $SMH .

Still a Strong Sector, just might need Oct to March to Make a real Push.

Needs to CLOSE above $593 or it's still out of favor on Wall-street IMO.

X -FAM $QQQ

MANAGE YOUR FEED.

If you follow these Bearish Accounts who ENDLESSLY POST MARKET CRASH, FEAR SENTIMENT TRADES TO HARVEST ENGAGEMENT YOU ARE SETTING YOURSELF UP TO MISS MASSIVE RUNS.

Is it smart to be tactically hedged, sure.

Is it smart to POST and BOOST FEAR on X Endlessly? NO

That is how you actually MISS the best Runs Of your Generation.

Curate your Feed.

Mute or Block the BEARS who Spread Fear and have 1 single view of the market.

They will plant a seed of Destruction in your mind that could cost you millions.

The mind has a real problem letting go of Fear.

Real investors, know the difference between indecision days and down days.

For $Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) earnings tonight after the bell, the cleanest near-term options estimate I’m seeing is about a ±14.4% implied earnings move for the Aug. 14 weekly expiration.

Using $31.72 spot:

Implied move: ≈ ±$4.57

Upside implied target: ≈ $36.29

Downside implied target: ≈ $27.15

The upper Bollinger Band is $36.83, basically sitting right around the bullish implied-move zone. On the downside, $27.15 lands almost directly on the 100-day MA at $27.76.

200-day MA at $29.64 would be the first major downside technical level before that.

$Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) Earnings Map

$39.05 — July swing high / breakout target

$36.30–$36.85 — implied upside + upper Bollinger Band

$31.72 — current price

$31.33 — 50 DMA

$31.10 — 21 EMA

$30.76 — 8 EMA

$29.64 — 200 DMA

$27.15–$27.76 — implied downside + 100 DMA

The setup is pretty clean technically: $36–37 is the expected bullish landing zone; $27–28 is the bearish landing zone.

A move through either side would represent an earnings move beyond what the options market is broadly pricing.

$SPY — THE ROADMAP INTO JACKSON HOLE

We now have two major Follow-Through Days in 2026:

April 8 → Follow-Through Day

The MACD thrust coming off the oversold lows was extremely powerful and helped launch the spring advance.

August 4 → Follow-Through Day

The MACD thrust is positive again.

Not quite the same explosion we saw in April, but momentum is clearly improving and the market has confirmed another rally attempt.

My roadmap from here:

FIB Bar 13 → August OPEX

FIB Bar 21 → Jackson Hole, August 27

Bars 21–34 → Jackson Hole through the September 16 FOMC

That 8/27 → 9/16 window is where I think the risk of the late-summer swoon increases.

Why?

We move through Labor Day, kids go back to school, summer liquidity/volume changes, and then Jackson Hole gives the Fed another opportunity to talk hawkish and scare the market.

That creates a natural window for profit-taking after an August run.

MY BASE CASE

NOW → AUGUST 27: BULLISH BIAS

Earnings remain supportive. If CPI, PPI and labor data stay tame, the market has room to continue running into Jackson Hole.

Then I want to become more defensive.

AUGUST 27 → SEPTEMBER 16: CAUTION / SUMMER SWOON WINDOW

This is where I would expect momentum to weaken, particularly if the market becomes extended going into Jackson Hole.

Then comes the next major decision point:

SEPTEMBER 16 FOMC

Absent a major inflation shock or geopolitical change, I do not currently see a compelling reason for the Fed to hike rates.

Iran/energy remains an important wildcard because another oil shock could quickly change the inflation conversation.

THE TRADE

For now, I am treating the August 4 Follow-Through Day as valid until price proves otherwise.

Ride the August momentum → respect August OPEX → look to trim risk into Jackson Hole → prepare for potential weakness into the September FOMC.

The market doesn't have to repeat April.

It just needs to keep confirming the trend.

$SPY TREND:

HIGHER UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE.

$SPX MONTHLY - A LOT HAS HAPPENED SINCE THE 2022 AI BIG BANG CHAT GPT LAUNCH.

MONTHLY BAR 55 is MAY of 2027.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

On July 29, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) closed at $190.01 and Williams %R (14) printed −100.00.

-100.00!!!!!!!!!!!!

That is not merely “oversold” — under the Williams %R calculation, −100 means price closed at the very bottom of its 14-period range.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US): −100 → Momentum Reversal

July 29

Close: $190.01

Williams %R: −100

Extreme downside momentum / capitulation

Price testing the lower Bollinger Band

Now

NVDA: approximately $222

Price has reclaimed the 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 MA and 100 MA

Upper Bollinger Band has been broken

Williams %R has ripped from −100 toward the opposite extreme

Previous momentum dashboard showed −9.31

MACD has turned bullish

RSI moved to 61.6

Money flow remains positive

That is a full momentum regime reversal.

The important lesson

Williams %R at −100 wasn't the buy signal by itself.

The signal became powerful because it occurred alongside:

Washout → support → moving-average reclaim → momentum reversal → breakout.

And look at what happened afterward:

$190 → $222+ in roughly a week.

That's about a 17% underlying move.

What I see now

Williams %R moving from −100 to near −10 shouldn't automatically be interpreted as:

“Overbought = SELL.”

In a strong momentum reversal, an overbought Williams %R can instead indicate that buyers have seized control of the tape.

The next confirmation is whether NVDA can stay pinned in the upper portion of its 14-day range while holding roughly $218–$212.

That July 29 −100 print may end up being one of the cleanest momentum-reset signals of this entire $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) move.

CAPITULATION: −100 → RECLAIM → BREAKOUT → MOMENTUM EXPANSION.

Wyckoff Summary: $QQQ

Jump Across the Creek, SOS, and Back-Up

Here’s the clean way to think about the current $QQQ setup through a Wyckoff lens:

1. Spring

First, the market printed the spring at $661.14.

That was the shakeout. Price briefly broke down, trapped sellers, then quickly reversed back into the range. In Wyckoff terms, that is often the final flush that clears supply before a stronger move begins.

2. Jump Across the Creek (JAC)

The Jump Across the Creek was the breakout move where price surged above the local resistance line with force.

For QQQ, that was the August 4th move:

strong wide-range up candle

breakout above the $700–$710 area

reclaim of the 50-day moving average

higher volume

demand clearly overpowering supply

That is the market “jumping the creek.”

3. Sign of Strength (SOS)

The SOS is the actual proof that buyers are in control.

In this case, the JAC and SOS are basically working together:

strong upward spread

expanding volume

breakout through resistance

follow-through from the prior rally attempt

So the August 4th breakout candle can be viewed as both the Jump Across the Creek and a Sign of Strength.

4. Back-Up to the Creek (BU)

After the breakout, Wyckoff expects price to often pull back and test the old resistance, which should now become support.

That is the Back-Up to the Creek.

For QQQ, that showed up as the pullback after the breakout:

price came back toward the breakout zone

tested the reclaimed support area

volume cooled versus the breakout session

sellers did not fully regain control

That is constructive. A healthy market often jumps first, then backs up to test the breakout.

5. What it means

The bullish sequence is:

Spring → Jump Across the Creek → Sign of Strength → Back-Up to the Creek → Markup

That is the roadmap bulls want.

6. Key QQQ levels

Here’s how I’d frame it now:

$710 = major support / creek area

$720 = reclaim zone that improves momentum

$723.85 = breakout / FTD reference

$730 = next major upside checkpoint

$700 = important danger line if support fails

7. Simple bottom line

The current idea is:

JAC: buyers blasted price through resistance

SOS: the breakout showed real strength and demand

BU: the pullback is the test of whether old resistance can become support

If $QQQ holds the $710 area and reclaims $720–$724, the Wyckoff markup thesis stays alive and the path toward $730+ stays open.

If $710 fails, then the backup is failing and risk rises for a move back toward $700.

Being that I'm a west Coast Trader, I try and read a few minutes after the opening bell power hour is over.

Taking 10 to 20 minutes before 9am to center myself is great for my trading style.

Ideas come, ideas get flushed.

I can center my purpose, focus and my tactics.

Trading is a process over time.

It's not a game of pinball.

Ideas and Trades Need to Simmer before they can really develop great flavor.

That takes a good time Horizon.

Call it at least a Fort Night.

(14 days+)

Sometimes 90 to 180 Days.

Daily Reminder:

Focus Your Energy on Yourself, from that point of view comes great perspective.

$SPY $QQQ $SPX