$SPY 
The Wedge of Truth + the latest AAII Bulls/Bears sentiment indecision.

1/
The Wedge of Truth is here.

$SPY is compressing into CPI/PPI next week while investor sentiment is almost perfectly split.
This is not a clean bull breakout.

This is not full bear capitulation.

This is a market waiting for inflation data to pick the next direction.

2/
AAII sentiment for the week ending 7/8/2026:

Bullish: 36.3%
Neutral: 26.5%
Bearish: 37.2%

That is about as indecisive as it gets.

Bears only lead bulls by 0.9 percentage points.
Nobody has control yet.

3/
What stands out to me:

Historical averages show:
Bullish average: 37.5%
Neutral average: 31.5%
Bearish average: 31.0%

Current sentiment is not euphoric.

Bulls are slightly below average.

Bears are still above average.

That means the wall of worry is alive.

4/
This matters because $SPY is sitting inside a technical compression zone.
We’ve had lower highs since $760.40.

Recently, $SPY rejected near $752.

Now price is hovering around:

Close: $746.05
8 EMA: $745.16
21 EMA: $743.16
50 SMA: $740.25

That is tight.

Very tight.

5/
The wedge is saying the same thing the sentiment survey is saying:

The market is not committed.

Bulls are not chasing aggressively.

Bears are not pressing enough to break it down.

Everyone is waiting for the same thing....

Inflation data!!

6/
Next week’s key catalysts:

Tuesday, July 14: CPI
Wednesday, July 15: PPI

Both at 8:30 AM ET.

These prints likely shape July positioning and the market’s view of year-end FOMC risk.

Cool data = bulls get oxygen.
Hot data = bears get ammo.

7/
Bull case:

$SPY holds 743–745, reclaims 752, then attacks 760.

That would tell me the wedge is resolving higher and the market is willing to look through inflation risk.

A reclaim of $752 is the first real confirmation.

Until then, it’s still compression.

8/
Bear case:

$SPY loses 743, then especially the 50 SMA near 740.

That would put the wedge at risk of breaking lower.

If CPI/PPI come in hot, the market may start pricing in more hawkish Fed pressure into year-end.

That opens the door toward the 730s.

9/
The key takeaway:

AAII sentiment is split.

$SPY is compressed.
Inflation data is the catalyst.

This is why I’m calling this setup:

The Wedge of Truth.

The next move likely comes from CPI/PPI, not opinions.

Trade the reaction.
Protect capital first.
Prepare for expansion either way.

Not financial advice.



$QQQ DEFENDING THE WEEKLY 8-EMA FOR NOW.

LOOKS LIKE WAVE 2 TO ME.

HOW DO WE GET WAVE 3?
TRUMP/IRAN DE-ESCALATION
DEAL SIGNED

PUTS CLOSE, VANNA SNAP RALLY INTO FOMC.

UNLIKELY - JUST GAMING IT OUT. 

$NVDA UNDER THE HOOD -

TRIED TO BREAK OUT BUT WALL-STREET SHUT IT DOWN FOR NOW.

SEEMS LIKE IT IS IN THE PENALTY BOX TRYING TO RECLAIM $205.

I think MOST PEOPLE JUST SELL CALLS AGAINST $NVDA WHICH IS WHY IT DOES NOT BREAK OUT LIKE $AMD OR $AVGO $INTC 

It can RUN just going to take time.

I still like the $210 or $220 SEPT 18th Call should we hold $200.

A very Wild 6 Days of Trading Fam!
June 5th to June 12th.

Friday the 5th, during Blood Red Chip day, I went long!!
It was so hectic I would not want followers to trade into that with me as it was a very high-risk bounce play. 

On Monday, I sold All those Longs as the market started turning over. 

Also Monday I went Short Apple 🍎 at $315 for $310, this was a Banger Over Night at WWDC Failed as usual and Apple dropped.

I sold Apple the next day at $289.
Total overnight Smash!

Then I went short Spy at $737 for $725. I sold it too early but it was a good trade. 

A wild week of flip Flops.
I never really nailed The top or bottoms but I did stay unemotional and nimble. That's the Key!

Go with the Flow Fam. 
Be Tied to Nothing other than Price,  Direction, and Flow!

$SPY $QQQ $AAPL

$GOOGL is not just an AI model trade.

It is a cash-flow machine with Search, YouTube, Cloud, Android, Workspace, Gemini, TPUs, and Waymo all stacked together.

The bull case is simple:

Google can make AI cheap, useful, deeply embedded, and massively distributed.

That is why $GOOGL may be one of the cleanest mega-cap AI value trades on the board.

Main risks to watch: antitrust remedies, heavy AI capex, and margin pressure if AI infrastructure costs rise faster than monetization. 

$GOOGL $GOOG

Gemini 3.5 Flash at $9 per million output tokens is the standout value layer here.

That is roughly:
70% cheaper than OpenAI
64% cheaper than Claude Opus
82% cheaper than Claude Fable

DeepSeek wins raw low-cost pricing.

But Google brings the full machine:

@WarrenPies

The market feels like it's played EVERY card it knows to go up, and it has.

Now it's rotate from A-B-C-D without a MASSIVE Sell Signal.

That in Turn BURNS PUTS Because $VIX is less than 16, so NO VEGA TO PAY PUTS, All that Really Happens is Chop or Premium Theta Decay.

I am not mad at it, it's the game we played MAY to OCT of 2025. Just need to Realize this can GRIND Higher on No News or Events unless FED MACRO Get in the way.

IRAN - No One Cares Anymore....

The Easy Money is Gone from $QQQ $SPY $SPX for the most part in 2026. 

Does NOT mean We ARE Going Down Though. Can Grind Higher as noted.

Going Down is Like MASSIVE HOT CPI/PPI.
Market Might Look Right Through that though.

TRUMP INVADES or ATTACKS IRAN - 
NOT PROBABLE THIS LATE INTO THE YEAR!

FED STEPS ON THEIR OWN TOES WITH ENDING QE LIGHT $25-$45B a Month of Buying.
Maybe but Unlikely in 2026 IMO.

FED SIGNALS A RATE HIKE - 
I REALLY TRULY DON'T THINK SO in JUNE or JULY.

$MAGS Ways they can FALL FOR REALZ....
$AAPL SELL THE NEWS FLOP AT WWDC -
THEY HAVE STUNK FOR YEARS IN A ROW.

$AMZN or $META or $TSLA Do the $GOOG THING and offer $80B to the Markets.

We are BELOW the 21 D SMA.

Recover  by Friday or potential REAL Pull back into FOMC BAR 55 June 17th.

$SMH 
June 23rd, 2026 The Asia Margin Call Flush!

Semis got smoked today, and the tape confirms institutions were buying protection hard.

Put volume ran 4.4x calls, and net premium was almost entirely puts: +$48.6M put premium vs basically flat/negative calls.

The monster print was 50,000 contracts of Jul 17 $540 puts — a huge July hedge.

My line in the sand is $600. Hold it and semis can stabilize. Lose it clean and the tape opens the door to 580 → 540 as the downside hedge zone.

NFA

⚾️ MARKET SCORECARD ⚾️

The pitcher has thrown 5 pitches this year.

❌ BALL #1 = $IGV (Software)
❌ BALL #2 = $MAGS (Magnificent 7)
❌ BALL #3 = $SPCX (Still in IPO price discovery)
✅ STRIKE #1 = $MU
✅ STRIKE #2 = $SNDK

Why?

The market isn't rewarding software and crowded AI trades right now.

It's rewarding the picks and shovels.

🔹 DRAM
🔹 HBM
🔹 NAND
🔹 Memory Infrastructure
🔹 AI Datacenter Buildout

Everyone wants to talk about AI.

The market is paying people who own the memory required to run it.

The Gold Rush wasn't won by the miners.
It was won by the people selling the shovels.

$MU $SNDK $NVDA $TSM $SMH $SPY $QQQ 

⚾️ Current Count:

 3 Balls, 2 Strikes

And the next pitch arrives with Micron earnings this week. 📈 June 24th.

🎯 MU Earnings Expected Move: ±$210 (±17.6%)

Current Price: $1,190

Bull Target: $1,400

Bear Target: $980

Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(Days/365)

$MU Price = $1,190.20

7-Day IV = 127.5% !!!!!

Earnings = June 24 AH
Using the weekly expiration immediately after earnings (June 26)

Calculation

Expected Move =

$1,190.20 × 1.275 × √(7/365)
√(7/365) = 0.1385

Expected Move ≈

$1,190.20 × 1.275 × 0.1385

Expected Move ≈ $210

Market Pricing

$1,190 ± $210

My Read

The market is essentially saying:

🟢 Beat + Raise + HBM commentary remains supply constrained

= $1,350-$1,450

🟡 Beat but guide merely "good"

= $1,200-$1,300

🔴 Any sign HBM demand is slowing or pricing is peaking

= $950-$1,050

This isn't just a Micron earnings report.

It's the scoreboard for the entire AI Memory Supercycle. 🚀🧠📈

MICRON SAMSUNG SK HYNIX

#AI #Semiconductors #MemorySupercycle #Investing #Stocks $MU $DRAM $SNDK

@smartertrader @Banana3Stocks @blondebroker1 @TradexWhisperer @Micro2Macr0 @astocks92 @SuperLuckeee @itsmichaelluu @StockPatternPro

Decent Night in Asia.

$BTC Holding $64K and Japan Pushing 72K.

Good start for our Monday Fam.

Eyes Up!

0.91 PUTS On Deck - Might Be Trapped if they get stuck and have to Vanna Snap Close quick.

Let's watch the Pre-Market Activity! 

$VIX Waking Up, But VIX Expiration is tomorrow.

We have $12T In CEO Companies in China this week.

Can they create a sense of calm and peace talks with IRAN to settle down OIL/Yields and Trade?? 

$HIMS Options Collar

As a Trader, you want to ride the Trend in the long term direction but with 140%+ Implied Volatility, that can literally be a 180 on the flip of a dime. 

Going into Earnings, I let my Calls Run since they were already explosive, but I realized the team needed to deliver on earnings. 
They did not. 

The flip side is riding puts for a week or two, as IV bleeds out and a new trend is formed. 

That's the Long/Short Collar. 

Obviously, I want the stock to go Long and Short Squeeze, but that doesn't always go your way. 

Either way, if trading, through a very High Volatility Window, carry a hedge.

After Hours Dark pool Prints Bouncing the Tape.

Whipsaw....

Darth Maul vs OB1

Start Wars.... 

$MAGS Below the 8-EMA is a Warning Shot.

Closing BELOW the 21 - EMA is a RISK OFF Highlight Should the Market Drift Sideways - Profit Taking Leading into next week CPI/PPI Inflation Reports on June 10th and 11th, followed By SUPPLY Driven SPACE X IPO June 12th.

All that without BUYERS Leads to Cooling Off, Selling A to Buy B, Trimming A to buy B.

My Clean AIR TRADING WINDOW is JUNE 19th to JULY 25th, if we can Manage MACRO.

MACRO is OIL, RATES, INFLATION, FED HAWKS

NOT EASY FAM - TRUMP TWEETS ARE MUTED NOW. WE KNOW IRAN IS A PLAY ALL SUMMER LONG INTO LABOR DAY NOW FOR THE ELECTION POP THEY ALWAYS WANTED.

IS IT TOO MUCH TOO LONG - POSSIBLE BUT $MAGS ARE SAYING WARNING!

NFA

$SPX 57/43 = You Really Want 50/50 to be Bullish.

$DRAM $SMH $SPY $QQQ

BEARISH TILT - 

CNBC: 

“There’s FOMO… chasing… speculation…”

HELLO.....

The world is built on gambling.

Macau. Vegas. Kalshi. Stocks. Leveraged ETFs. Options. Bitcoin. Horse racing. Sports betting.

Face facts: the entire globe is full of risk-takers.

I didn’t create the world order.

Humans naturally gravitated toward a gambling lifestyle. Some dude thought he would SWIM The ENGLISH Channel, AND DID!

There was FOMO in 2023.
There was FOMO in 2024.
There was FOMO in 2025.
There’s FOMO in 2026.

And guess what?
There will be FOMO in 2027 too.
This is the game humans chose.

Watch.
Wait.
Participate.
Or scream from the peanut gallery.

The market is a full casino. Don’t kid yourself.

People ask me what stock books to study.

I tell them:

Read poker strategy.

Super/System 1 & 2.
Harrington on Hold’em.
Bankroll management.
Position sizing.
Patience.
Risk/reward.
Knowing when to fold.
Stocks and options are not about being right every time.

They’re about surviving long enough for your edge to pay!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Manage the bankroll.
Respect the table.
Play the hand.

$SPY $QQQ $BTC $NVDA $TSLA

$VIX @grok analyze the tape from today, seems off for all the IRAN War stuff going on. 

Jim

Jim