阿九本人

$ZTE(00763.HK) rose two or three points and was relatively active, with communication equipment following overall market sentiment; $Echostar(ECHO.US) and $Echostar(SATS.US) - two U.S. listings, one slightly up, the other basically flat, satellite communication overall lacks catalysts; $CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK) was basically flat, major telecom stocks are still in that stable state, supported by their dividend foundation. There's no major theme today, just slowly drifting along with their own rhythms 😀

$CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK) and $Tencent Music(TME.US) have both been moving sideways without any action. 🫥 For a dividend-paying core holding like $CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK), moving sideways is its primary job. $Tencent Music(TME.US) seems more like it's waiting for the marginal change in the paid user rate in the next earnings report. When China concept platform stocks lack catalysts, they just drift with the broader market. On sideways days, a glance is enough. Save the position sizing for other things to worry about.

$Ciena(CIEN.US) has risen nearly five points, while $CIG(06166.HK) on the Hong Kong stock side has fallen nearly six points. Both are on the optical communication track. $Ciena(CIEN.US) is following the demand for optical modules from AI data centers, which is a solid logic. The Hong Kong stock is more dragged down by the overall sentiment of the Hong Kong hardware sector. The demand for optical interconnect from AI computing power is certain, but the way this demand is priced in the Hong Kong and US markets is completely divergent. Is this stratification a dislocation caused by short-term capital flows, or does the Hong Kong optical communication sector inherently lack the support of an independent narrative? It looks more like the latter; the Hong Kong side hasn't yet developed its own story.

$ZTE(00763.HK) rose by over six percentage points, strengthening along with the demand expectations for AI computing power and information technology innovation; $CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK) basically didn't move, as telecom operators act as ballast during market fluctuations.

Both are listed telecom stocks, one riding on AI's volatility and the other on dividend stability, and they completely diverged into two separate trends that day. Has communication equipment truly entered a new growth phase driven by AI, or is it just another thematic sentiment pulse? I lean towards the former having already begun, as the demand from AI clusters for network equipment is genuinely increasing in volume.

$Fundrise Innovation Fund LLC(VCX.US) has dropped another -16%, plummeting from its year-to-date high to just over $70 now, with a decline of over 50% in the past month alone. The premium to NAV for this non-traded fund was ridiculously high earlier—in March, the NAV per share was around $19, but the price was hovering around $380.

Is this wave the premium finally converging to NAV, or are the underlying unlisted tech assets (including the exposure to SpaceX) themselves being revalued? It looks more like the former, as the premium in the secondary market price is collapsing much faster than the fundamentals.

$WELLCELL HOLD(02477.HK) fell by over seven percentage points, a very noticeable drop—however, it primarily focuses on IT solutions and has a small market cap, which is a different story from telecom operators; $Verizon(VZ.US) rose slightly by over one percentage point, and $CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK) was basically flat. Large-cap stocks like telecom operators tend to be stable in volatile markets, supported by their high dividend yields, with minimal price movements. The sharp drop in $WELLCELL HOLD(02477.HK) seems more like a liquidity or news-driven issue specific to small-cap stocks and should not be conflated with the telecom sector.

$ZTE(00763.HK) rose three points, with communication equipment moving slightly in line with expectations for domestic substitution and AI-related capital expenditures; $Echostar(ECHO.US) basically didn't move. This batch of telecom stocks usually doesn't fluctuate much. ZTE occasionally sees pulses based on policy and the logic of operator investment, while the satellite communication side has been waiting for news on spectrum allocation and business implementation. Overall, this type of stock is slow-paced, and when lacking immediate catalysts, it follows the broader market with minor fluctuations. 🙃

$ViaSat(VSAT.US) fell 7-8 points, with trading volume more than doubling. There's clearly concentrated selling in the satellite communications sector; $Iridium Comm(IRDM.US) actually rose slightly.

Both are in satellite communications, but one is being dumped while the other holds steady. Is $ViaSat(VSAT.US) falling so sharply due to company-specific news I haven't seen, or are highly leveraged satellite operators being sold off first as risk appetite shrinks? It looks more like the latter— $Iridium Comm(IRDM.US) has a much cleaner cash flow and balance sheet. What the market is really differentiating is "who can withstand the pressure of interest rates and financing."

$WELLCELL HOLD(02477.HK) remained flat, $ZTE(00763.HK) dipped slightly. Both telecom stocks were quiet today — $WELLCELL HOLD(02477.HK) is a small-cap satellite communications stock in Hong Kong with no specific catalyst; $ZTE(00763.HK) is a 5G equipment + AI server integrator, waiting for Q2 earnings.

Hong Kong telecom small-cap and large-cap stocks are both stable. When VIX fell to 17, the "backup" funds for such high-dividend, stable sectors were actually neglected.

SATS, $CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK), and $Echostar(ECHO.US) were basically flat today. The three telecom stocks as a whole are holding steady.

Telecom operators and satellite communications are inherently low-beta assets. This kind of "quietness" is actually the norm during market volatility.

$YOFC(06869.HK) fell -13%. The company has clarified that there is no material information that should have been disclosed but hasn't been disclosed. Therefore, this wave of selling seems more like concerns at the industry level coming to a head — in the past two years, peers in the optical fiber and cable industry have expanded production aggressively, with overcapacity suppressing product prices, and the market is repricing the cycle. There's no company-specific black swan; the drop is in expectations for the supply-demand landscape. For this kind of capacity-cycle-driven pullback, the bottom usually requires signals of stabilized industry operating rates and prices.

$LENOVO GROUP(00992.HK) rose over four percentage points, with the replacement cycle expectation for AI PCs giving it some momentum; $Murata Manufacturing(MRAAY.US) edged up slightly, $CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK) was basically flat, and $Echostar(SATS.US) also just lay there ☺️

Among this batch of hardware components and telecom operators, Lenovo has a story with AI PCs, while the rest are in a steady state — telecom operators have dividend support, and during market volatility, they just look lukewarm like this, suitable for ballast but not for chasing volatility.

$CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK) fell slightly, $ZTE(00763.HK) dropped five to six percentage points. In the Hong Kong telecom sector today, operators and equipment vendors clearly moved to two different rhythms. $CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK) this kind of operator is relatively resilient in a risk-off environment, supported by its dividend foundation; $ZTE(00763.HK) has heavier equipment/tech attributes, getting hit along with the Hong Kong tech sector, making its volatility much greater. The closer to the growth/tech segment, the more this wave has fallen 🙃

$Coca Cola(KO.US), $Lululemon(LULU.US) basically didn't move; $McDonald's(MCD.US) and $Costco Wholesale(COST.US) dipped slightly; $CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK) is also moving sideways—this batch of defensive consumer stocks has been in a dull state recently. When risk appetite returns, money flows to small-cap stocks and semiconductors, leaving high-dividend defensive stocks on the sidelines.

I was reluctant to cut this part of my holdings a while ago. Now, seeing growth stocks bounce while these just lie flat, holding them is stable, but they have genuinely underperformed by a significant margin. At times like this, the cost of defense becomes apparent.

$CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK) barely moved today, closing at HKD 81.8, but looking at the daily chart is quite painful: the stock price is suppressed below all the 9-day, 21-day, and 50-day moving averages, with a 14-day RSI of only 20.6, indicating deep oversold conditions.

Within the Stock Connect high-dividend basket, it's the kind that falls in a very dull way—no sharp drop, just a slow, grinding decline to the point where no one discusses it.

Oversold doesn't mean an immediate rebound, but after the RSI hits just above 20, further selling usually just grinds on. Aggressive traders can try a left-side position near the HKD 80 mark, stop loss if it breaks below 80, with the first rebound target at the 21-day moving average of 84.7. The risk-reward ratio isn't bad.

$STANCHART(02888.HK) and $BOC HONG KONG(02388.HK) both rose slightly by about two percentage points. The story about Hong Kong's local interest rate spread is being told again as expectations for overseas interest rate hikes are warming up. $BANK OF CHINA(03988.HK), $CCB(00939.HK), $PING AN(02318.HK), and $CHINA LIFE(02628.HK) all showed little movement. Domestic banks and insurers remain as stable as a rock, as those following overseas interest rates and those following domestic policies have always been on two different rhythms. 😇

$Select Sect Spdr Util(XLU.US), $PepsiCo(PEP.US) both edged up slightly, while $Nextera Energy(NEE.US) and $CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK) barely moved and closed in the green—in a session where tech stocks broadly declined and the VIX climbed above 20, the defensive side collectively bucked the trend.

The driver is not complicated: it's the standard destination for capital when risk appetite shifts down a gear. What's worth a second look is the positioning—utilities have been supported all year by the AI power consumption narrative, making them hard to fall; staples like $PepsiCo(PEP.US) have been range-bound for a long time, with valuations compressed to the lower end of their historical range, offering both defense and cheapness, which has actually brought out their resilience in a down market.

The sustainability of such a rotation never depends on the defensive side itself, but on when the growth side stops falling. Once the VIX falls back below 20, the defensive side will quiet down again.

Let me share something I only understood after losing a lot of money.

Three years ago, I bought AMD. I read a ton of analyses: the P/E ratio was reasonable, it benefited from AI, there was a technical breakout—all the logic was right. After I bought in, it dropped 30%. I always thought it was my misjudgment, but later I realized it wasn't—that quarter, Vanguard was quietly reducing its position, and I had no idea.

Institutions don't announce when they reduce positions; it doesn't make the news, but it happens. By the time the 13F data comes out, it's already too late.

After that, I started seriously researching institutional holdings. Honestly, it was really painful at first. The SEC's EDGAR website looks like a relic from the last century. 13F files are in XML format with hundreds of lines of data. I manually sorted through it in Excel a few times; my eyes were blurry afterward, and it still might not have been right.

Later, I started using Longbridge Skill. The longbridge shareholder feature directly shows the top ten institutions and their position change data, and longbridge investors lets you check the changes in an entire institution's portfolio. The first time I ran it, I was stunned—something that used to take two or three hours was done in 30 seconds.

But the tool is secondary. What really made me think clearly was one question: Why are institutions buying at this price?

I can deduce their cost basis for building the position, and I can calculate the gap between the current price and that cost. If an institution built a position at $80 and it's now risen to $120, their floating profit is already substantial, and they could reduce their position at any time—if I jump in now, who's on the other side of the trade?

Conversely, if the stock price falls back near the institution's cost basis, they're likely to continue holding or even add to their position. Support at that level is more solid.

I'm not saying that following institutions means you won't lose money. Institutions can also misjudge, and they have their own funding pressures. But at least now I know what's in the water; I'm not swimming blindly in the dark anymore.

Last month, during that TSMC rebound, I checked in advance that both BlackRock and Vanguard had added positions at low levels. I held without panicking, and it went from $326 back up to $444. Maybe it was luck, but I think it was more about having confidence.

The fundamental reason for not being able to hold a stock isn't a lack of willpower; it's a lack of information.

$CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK) has barely moved. High-dividend blue-chip stocks like telecom operators are the steady ballast in a volatile market; $COSCO SHIP HOLD(01919.HK) has dropped more than three percentage points. The shipping sector is clearly weaker, dragged down by uncertainties in freight rates and trade friction. Before freight rates show any improvement, the 'cheapness' of shipping stocks could easily become even cheaper. In a volatile market, I'd rather hold onto dividend-paying blue-chips like telecoms. Would you guys try to catch the bottom of the shipping cycle at this level?

China Mobile barely moved, Legend Holdings fell by over three percentage points, Shankao Holdings dipped slightly—these are among the more defensive stocks within the Hong Kong stock market's main board. The telecom operators are as stable as ballast stones, while the two holding platforms saw slight pullbacks instead.

When the main board fluctuates, high-dividend telecom operators rely on their dividend foundation to withstand volatility, while the discount issue for holding-type companies remains unresolved without a catalyst. In this environment, should one hold on to high-dividend stocks to hedge against risk, or is the discount repair of holding platforms more worth waiting for? In the short term, I still see the former as more stable; what discount repair lacks is a trigger point for asset revaluation.

ZTE rose six points. Communication equipment stocks in Hong Kong followed the strengthening sentiment driven by demand for AI computing power networks; Ciena fell slightly on the US stock side, with the optical network segment waiting for confirmation of the next round of data center interconnect orders😪

Even though they are in the same communication infrastructure business, the sentiment given by capital in Hong Kong and A-shares is completely out of sync with that in US stocks.

Tencent was up 2% today, which looks flat, but I'm watching another number: it spent another HK$501 million to repurchase 1.148 million shares today. This relentless daily share buyback rhythm is Tencent's strongest foundation over the past two years.

Last week, China concept AI stocks were wrongly sold off in a wave, with Alibaba, Tencent, and PDD all falling together. The market thinks the China AI story isn't as sexy as the US stock market's. But I believe this is precisely where Tencent is undervalued—its large model weekly usage volume is leading domestically, and the AI monetization within the WeChat ecosystem hasn't truly rolled out yet, but the market only prices it as a "cheap China concept stock."

Today, southbound capital had a net inflow of 4.6 billion, smart money is flowing back. My judgment is straightforward: At this level for Tencent, there's no need to worry about short-term fluctuations. Buybacks are supporting the bottom, fundamentals are stabilizing. I'll hold it as a core position around 436 HKD. If a golden pit really forms from another drop, it would be an opportunity for me to add to my position, not a signal to exit. If I had to pick the most reassuring one among China concept stocks, it's still Tencent.

Citigroup and Bank of America barely moved — these two major U.S. bank stocks didn't move much today amid regional bank concerns, trading very flat. The positive movement in the yield curve is beneficial for net interest margins, but the capital adequacy ratio pressure and non-performing loan ratio of the big banks have not truly eased. Will the soft-landing narrative continue to support net interest margins in the second half of the year, or will recession fears flare up again? I guess it will still be a soft landing — but we need to observe the June credit data one more time.