0616 ｜Dolphin Key Focus

🐬 Macro/Industry

China's NBS reported that May retail sales fell 0.6% YoY and 0.38% MoM. Goods spending softened, while F&B and rural retail posted modest gains.

Industrial VA for above-scale firms rose 4.5% YoY, up 40bps vs. Apr. New growth drivers supported a stronger production side.

Supply-demand divergence persisted, with domestic-demand recovery weak and manufacturing upgrade accelerating. Near term, this pressures consumer sector multiples, while compute power and new-energy equipment in high-end mfg remain resilient. The data flag pressure on demand repair, and markets expect beefed-up pro-consumption measures, creating rotation setups in domestic demand and high-end mfg.

🐬 Single Names

1、$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

NVDA priced a $25bn IG bond, its first since 2021, with orders of $85bn driving an upsized deal from the initial $20bn. The seven tranches span 2–30 years, with proceeds for debt repayment and liquidity.

Heavy oversubscription underscores global confidence in NVDA's AI chip leadership. Ultra-low funding costs optimize its debt profile and secure low-cost capital for compute capacity expansion and strategic investments.

The news lifted NVDA shares.

2、$BABA-W(09988.HK)

Alibaba launched Qwen-Robot, its first full-stack embodied-intelligence series under Qwen, covering core models for manipulation, navigation, and world understanding. These models handle fine-grained control, environmental movement, and physical-scene reasoning, deployable standalone or jointly, and fit multiple robot hardware types.

The offering fills Qwen's gap in physical-world intelligence, establishing the tech base to bring digital LLMs to real-world robots. It is open for adaptation by industrial and service-robot vendors.

3、$BIDU-W(09888.HK)

BIDU's Robotaxi unit 'Luobo Kuaipao' and Swiss Post launched the autonomous service 'AmiGo', securing an L4 road-test permit from the Swiss Federal Roads Office. Testing has begun across 80 sq km in three eastern cantons, with a target of fully driverless, regular operations by 2027 in suburban transit-fill scenarios.

Given Switzerland's stringent safety standards, this validates Apollo's AV stack under top-tier European oversight. It sets a benchmark for China AV going global.

Leveraging local transit group channels, BIDU can expand quickly in Europe, opening room for overseas commercialization orders. This strengthens BIDU's global autonomous-driving competitiveness.

4、$POP MART(09992.HK)

Pop Mart announced that its self-developed sim mobile game 'Dream Home' will shut down on Aug 12, with top-ups and new registrations closed from Jun 12. The title accumulated nearly RMB 120mn in losses over two years.

Despite leveraging its popular toy IPs, the game suffered from thin gameplay and low retention. The company is scaling back gaming to refocus on core pop-toy operations.

The shutdown cuts ongoing losses and redeploys resources to blind boxes, offline stores, and overseas IP ops. It also shows the difficulty of crossing into gaming, and the market expects reduced non-core spend, improving core earnings visibility and aiding a valuation re-rate over the medium term.

5、$BABA-W(09988.HK)

Alipay rolled out an AI-driven interface 'Abao', accessible via a side-swipe into a chat UI. Tens of thousands of lifestyle and gov. services are now one-command away, and an independently set asset page isolates fund operations so the AI cannot move money, balancing convenience with risk control.

This is Alipay's largest interaction revamp, rebuilding the service flow on Ant's Bailian LLM. It is currently in limited invite-only testing, with phased opening.

Near term, it may lift time spent and conversions on low-frequency services. Over time, value hinges on platform openness and monetization mechanics, with DAU and transaction-conversion data to watch.

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

A-shares: leaders were precious metals & mining and tobacco. Electronic components also outperformed.

HK: leaders were diversified financials and transaction & payment services. Residential construction names also outperformed.

US: leaders were telecom services and precious metals & mining. Silver outperformed as well.

🐬 Watch for Tomorrow

US May retail sales (MoM) and Apr business inventories (MoM). These are on tap tomorrow.

Risk disclosure and statement for this note: Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure. Please refer to the link.