BIMIMAX@EC2701A

Minimax 1H26 First Take: In 1H26, Minimax was anchored by the coding boom and the launch of its M3 model. Its valuation slid from a peak of over $55 bn at the start of the year to $13.5 bn, suggesting it may have slipped out of China's top-tier independent model cohort.

That said, the 1H print was not as weak as feared. Enterprise-facing API and the Coding Plan generated $74 mn of revenue in 1H, up 700%+ YoY.

Elsewhere, GPM was under 20%, which is low. R&D spend reached $300 mn, slightly above expectations.

The key, in our view, is the $74 mn B2B revenue in 1H, up 700% YoY. That helps square the post-drop $13.5 bn valuation, which we do not see as unreasonable. After all, Keling secured an $18 bn primary-market valuation even with flattish near-term ARR.

Ultimately, the swing factor is whether Minimax discloses its latest ARR. The company still targets $1 bn by end-26, while some offshore sources estimate Aug ARR at $600 mn. $MINIMAX-W(00100.HK)

From a macro perspective, the trend is for the market to have more usable commercial large models available. The difference lies in how the market prices these different models. You have your own psychological price target; once it's reached, you buy or sell, and you pay for your own cognition.

$MINIMAX-W(00100.HK)

MiniMax: Navigating the AI Frontier!🚀

Despite a turbulent start to July, MiniMax is doubling down on its mission to achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

Following a massive 44.85% stock unlock on 9 July that triggered a significant price dip, the company is striking back with a bold USD 2 billion fundraising plan to fuel its next-generation R&D.

🔷 Analyst Sentiment remains a key battlefield:

🟢 Goldman Sachs-maintains a high-conviction - Buy with an HKD 860 target.

🟢 BofA Securities and Citi remain positive with targets of HKD 500 and HKD 533 respectively.

🟢 JPMorgan holds a more cautious Neutral stance at HKD 300.

🔷 Latest updates and developments

CEO Yan Junjie is pledging to forgo his salary until AGI is achieved. Furthermore, he is gifting 5% of his personal equity- 4% to reward long-term employees and 1% to support open-source communities.

With a clear roadmap to USD 1 billion in ARR by year-end and the imminent launch of the H3 multimodal video model, MiniMax is positioned for a high-growth future.

Is now a good entry point? From a 52 week high of HKD 1330, it has corrected almost 80% . let’s discuss! 🤔.

If you need clearer and easy to read information check out the attached latest infographic for the full strategic update!

The question on Zhipu and MiniMax joining the Hang Seng Tech Index: is the pop investable, or just a flow event? The inflow math is real, an estimated US$1.25 to 1.75 billion of passive buying must purchase these names regardless of price. That is a genuine near-term tailwind. But step back to valuation: both are pre-profit AI labs, valued on narrative and revenue potential, not earnings. Index inclusion changes who owns the shares, not what they are worth. My take: trade the flow if you must, but do not confuse a mechanical inclusion bid with a fundamentals call. Not investment advice.

Zhipu and MiniMax officially join the Hang Seng Tech Index today, with an estimated US$1.25 to 1.75 billion of passive inflows incoming. HK finally has its homegrown AI names, and the index that missed the entire global AI boom gets a second chance 🚀

with Zhipu and MiniMax joining HSTECH, is this the real start of HK tech catching up to US AI, or just a flow-driven pop around two names that do not make money yet?? 🙋

The filing itself comes as no surprise to me. The main investors simply want to turn their holdings into profits now. What is remarkable is the valuation. The reported growth does seem to justify at least some of the market’s excitement. But at this scale, investors are essentially placing four big bets:

1. AI-related spending will keep surging for years to come

2. Anthropic will remain among the top two or three leading companies in advanced AI development

3. The capabilities of its models will continue to improve

4. Profit margins will eventually widen, even with huge ongoing costs for GPUs and infrastructure

That said, a $965 billion valuation leaves almost no margin for error. It is worth approaching this IPO with caution. there is a risk it could follow the same path as Minimax.🙁

$MINIMAX-W(00100.HK)how low will it goes?