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JP-JDHI@EC2605A
20076.HK
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Morning Trend | JD.com Continues to Decline with Decreasing Volume, Is the Support Critical Point About to Change?

JD Group -SW (9618.HK) has recently shown a weak oscillating pattern in its stock price, with the daily K-line indicating three consecutive bearish candles. During the trading session, there has been a continuous decrease in volume, gradually approaching the previous important support zone. From the moving average structure, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have crossed below the 20-day moving average, forming a clear death cross, while the MACD green bars continue, indicating a sustained bearish dominance. The trading volume is sluggish, reflecting a clear market wait-and-see attitude and divergent sentiment among investors. Due to industry profit pressures and a slower-than-expected consumer recovery, JD's short-term fundamentals are unlikely to see significant catalysts. The growth in the e-commerce sector is slowing, and promotional activities have limited effects on performance, leading the market to maintain conservative expectations for the company's future profit growth. Additionally, under the global high-interest rate environment and fluctuations in the RMB, the willingness of capital to flow into the Hong Kong stock technology consumer sector has weakened, putting overall pressure on the industry’s capital situation, with JD being the most affected. Continuous small outflows of northbound funds and ETFs have also dampened market confidence. Technically, JD is currently oscillating around the HKD 180 mark, with some main funds entering at low levels for defense, but the characteristics of stock game are evident, lacking sustained proactive buying. If the stock price stabilizes at the HKD 180 support today and shows moderate volume increase, it may attract attention from funds looking for a rebound after a significant drop. However, if it continues to decrease in volume and breaks below key support, there is a risk of further decline to the HKD 160-170 range. In terms of operational advice, investors should pay attention to the volume-price coordination during the trading session and the testing of support zones. If there are signals of capital movement and increased volume, short-term rebound opportunities may be considered, but position sizes should be controlled with strict stop-loss measures

Technical Forecast·
Technical Forecast·

Morning Trend | JD LOGISTICS tests support, can it trigger short-term volatility?

JD LOGISTICS (2618.HK) has recently continued to show weak fluctuations in its stock price, maintaining an overall pattern of reduced volume adjustments, primarily consolidating around key support levels. The overall K-line is dominated by bearish candles, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages in a downward mutual suppression state, and the short-term moving averages displaying a typical death cross structure. The MACD indicator continues to show green bars, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market. From a fundamental perspective, the company's order growth rate has slowed, and the logistics industry's gross profit margin is under pressure, leading investors to hold conservative expectations for future profit growth. The intensifying industry competition and emerging supply-demand contradictions, coupled with macroeconomic uncertainties, have exacerbated the overall capital outflow from the sector. The recent continuous reduced volume performance indicates that both the main players and external funds are tending to adopt a wait-and-see approach. In the short term, JD LOGISTICS has now retraced to the support range of HKD 10.5-11.0. If there is a recovery in main player momentum during today's trading, accompanied by a moderate increase in trading volume, and it stands above HKD 11.5, it is expected to trigger a short-term rebound and open up new upward space. Otherwise, a breach of the support zone will further accelerate the downward process. Investors are advised to prioritize risk control, closely monitor intraday volume and price data, and wait for confirmation of capital movement signals. Set stop-loss levels and engage in light-position quick trades to capitalize on rebound trends, avoiding heavy positions or blind chasing of highs

Technical Forecast·
Technical Forecast·
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