Aehr Test

Silicon Photonics' optical transceiver market share is estimated to exceed 50% by 2027.

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) VP of Advanced Packaging said today that silicon photonics is becoming the mainstream form thanks to the structural transformation of optical transceivers.

He also stated that the real bottleneck for large-scale deployment lies in lasers, optical fibers, fiber optic connectors, and product testing.

If I was to pick the "main" players instead of just name-dumping:

- $Lumentum(LITE.US) / $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US): InP lasers - CW for SiPh, ELS for CPO, 200G EMLs

- $Aehr Test(AEHR.US): SiPh WLBI testing

- $Corning(GLW.US): PM fibre, fibre arrays & MPO/MTP connectivity

- Sumitomo Electric (5802): InP lasers + substrates

Obviously you've got a ton of other names from: $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) for InP lasers, $IQE for InP base epi, $BESI for hybrid bonding and $Keysight Tech(KEYS.US) / $Viavi Solutions(VIAV.US) for optical test.

Feels like TSMC have been running the same narrative alongside the COUPE roadmap for a while now though.

But always good to get some re-confirmations on where everyone's favourite bottlenecks sit / narratives coming from TSMC themselves.

$Aehr Test(AEHR.US) has received ANOTHER follow-on order from their lead silicon photonics customer for a fully automated burn-in system.

I've lost count of how many times this customer's ordered from them...

- Expected to ship in the first half of 2027.

- The order includes automated wafer handling & loading capabilities for production-scale SiPh integrated circuit manufacturing.

Very impressive execution and order flow.

📢 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗡: $Aehr Test(AEHR.US) Aehr Receives Follow-On Silicon Photonics Production Order

👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:

➤ 𝗔𝗲𝗵𝗿 received a follow-on production order from its lead silicon photonics customer.

➤ Order includes a fully automated 𝗙𝗢𝗫-𝗫𝗣® multi-wafer production burn-in system.

➤ System supports next-generation 𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗵𝗼𝘁𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗰 integrated circuit manufacturing.

➤ Configured with 𝟵 𝗪𝗮𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗣𝗮𝗸® test blades delivering up to 𝟯,𝟱𝟬𝟬 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝘁𝘀 each.

➤ Includes fully automated wafer handling and loading capabilities.

➤ System is expected to ship during the 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗳 𝗼𝗳 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟳.

➤ Order supports AI networking, optical transceivers, and chip-to-chip optical I/O.

➤ Aehr sees growing global demand for 𝘄𝗮𝗳𝗲𝗿-𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 𝗯𝘂𝗿𝗻-𝗶𝗻 (𝗪𝗟𝗕𝗜) solutions.

👉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀:

➤ Signals expanding commercial adoption of 𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗵𝗼𝘁𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗰𝘀 for AI infrastructure.

➤ Reinforces demand for advanced semiconductor testing as AI networking scales.

➤ Positions Aehr to benefit from increasing production of AI optical interconnects.

➤ Follow-on production orders may indicate strengthening customer manufacturing demand.

👉 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁:

𝗚𝗮𝘆𝗻 𝗘𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗸𝘀𝗼𝗻, President and Chief Executive Officer of Aehr Test Systems:

"This production order is another indication that silicon photonics is moving from technology adoption into manufacturing scale-up, and we believe that transition represents a significant long-term growth opportunity for Aehr. The order reflects our lead silicon photonics customer's continued expansion of manufacturing capacity and represents another important milestone in the industry's transition toward high-volume production of silicon photonic integrated circuits.

"As AI clusters continue to grow in size and performance, silicon photonics is emerging as a key enabling technology for delivering the bandwidth, power efficiency, and scalability required by next-generation AI infrastructure. What began with optical transceivers is now expanding into optical switching, co-packaged optics, linear pluggable optics, and chip-to-chip optical I/O.

"At the same time, the industry is moving toward more highly-integrated optical architectures that integrate or closely co-package laser sources with silicon photonic integrated circuits. These advances improve performance, reduce system cost, simplify manufacturing, and make device reliability even more critical.

"As silicon photonic devices continue to increase in complexity, power density, and production volumes, we believe WLBI is becoming a foundational manufacturing step for many of these next-generation devices. Identifying latent defects and stabilization of the integrated lasers before packaging improves manufacturing yields, lowers overall production costs, and enables the long-term reliability demanded by hyperscale AI infrastructure.

"Over the past year, we've seen a meaningful increase in engagement from silicon photonics companies around the world spanning engineering qualification systems, production capacity planning, and next-generation device roadmaps. These discussions reinforce our belief that the market is approaching an important inflection point.

"As production requirements evolve toward higher power, fully-automated wafer-level manufacturing, and larger production volumes, we believe our FOX-XP platform and integrated automated wafer-level handling solution position Aehr to become the production standard for wafer-level reliability screening of silicon photonic integrated circuits."

Current market sentiment is absolutely unhinged.

1. Do you do anything related to AI? — Sell!

2. Do you not do anything to do with AI? — Buy!

Brutal market open with semis like $Aehr Test(AEHR.US), $Sandisk(SNDK.US), $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) and $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) all down -10% so far.

Rough!

Tough to say if semis have bottomed now.

With most AI infra names having green days.

- From $SIVE, $Aehr Test(AEHR.US), and $IQE up over 20%.

- To $Sandisk(SNDK.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US) and $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) up over 10%.

Regardless of today's returns, the next couple of weeks will certainly be more important for more clarity:

- 22 Jul: $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Q2: first proper gauge of the ~$750B hyperscaler capex year.

- 22-23 Jul: $AMD(AMD.US) Advancing AI event: Roadmap read through for foundry loading + advanced packaging + laser type demand into 2027.

- 23 Jul: $Intel(INTC.US) Q2: 18A yields + foundry commitments are probably the main variables w/ reads on US onshoring & packaging momentum.

- 23 Jul: $IBM(IBM.US) Q2: already lost a ~25% of its MC so let's see how brutal the market is on guidance misses.

- 24 Jul: 10% global tariff expires & new tariffs on dozens of countries expected. It'd be a stagflationary factor that feeds the overarching Fed hike narrative.

- 27 Jul: Kimi K3 full weights released

- 28-29 Jul FOMC: rate hold expected per experts + Polymarket. Important to bear in mind that rate hikes (or signals of one) would be the AI trade's first genuine regime shift.

- 29-30 Jul: $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US) earnings: more capex datapoints.

- 30 Jul: June core PCE

And any day we could get a US-Iran ceasefire. There's still a 10 day proposal on the table while strikes keep happening. A proper/confirmed truce would help oil prices and helps semis.

Just for a high level timeline of the "main" important events coming up soon.

All have some kind of impact on semis to varying degrees.

AI capex of course will be most important when the hyperscalers report earnings.

Wow, unreal $Aehr Test(AEHR.US) Q4 earnings and FY2027 outlook, +26% after-hours.

I have high conviction that Aehr is well positioned for many years of very strong growth:

- Multiple customers entering/expanding production

- Huge backlog

- Opportunities in new markets e.g. NAND and HBM applications for their WLBI system roadmap.

-> Q4 2026 earnings:

Revenue: $18.8M vs. Est. $18.7M

EPS: $0.11 vs. Est. ($0.01)

Bookings: $61M

Backlog: $101M

-> FY27 Guidance:

Revenue: up to $150M vs. Est. $85M (+200% YoY)

- WLBI demand from AI applications is expected to accelerate.

- AEHR also engaged with additional AI processor suppliers that are evaluating WLBI to improve product reliability and reduce yield loss from production burn-in.

With qualification testing for their WLBI exceeding all of their major customers' expecations.

With their major customers ultimately saying that they want to buy even more systems from Aehr.

"The potential revenue opportunity from any one of these devices is significant to Aehr in terms of near and long-term revenue streams related to the WLBI systems."

Then on their package-level burn-in systems:

- Record follow-on orders recently from Aehr's lead hyperscale customer.

- Customer wants to buy more PLBI systems.

- Aehr also engaged w/ multiple new customers for PLBI qualification incl. AI customers and robotics.

So overall, very significant TAM expansion if they can capture new customers across AI and robotics. And since they pass qualification cycles with ease, I have high confidence that they'll capture these newer markets also, driven by years and years of in-house process knowledge + patents.

I've mentioned a few times, but Aehr's lead SiPho customer is also ramping w/ follow-on orders over the last year. And more orders coming soon from them for additional WLBI systems.

"Our newest major silicon photonics customer...has provided us a forecast for additional systems this calendar year as it ramps capacity to support next-generation hyperscale data center deployments."

All basically meaning that SiPho + optical test and burn-in market has huge potential to grow significantly and be a major long-term growth driver for Aehr.

And very interesting to see the CEO mention the memory market roadmap for their WLBI systems also!

"We continue to work with multiple memory suppliers to align our solutions to meet the production needs of these companies' new capacity coming online."

Very exciting times for Aehr, and they remain one of my higher conviction names all throughout the AI supercycle.

High demand for Aehr solutions + Great execution = Bullish

Speedrun | Upcoming Events This Week - [July 13 - July 17, 2026]

Stay informed on events/news for the coming week.

Iran Conflict Update

> The Headlines: U.S. Central Command launched a third round of strikes over the weekend following an IRGC attack on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz.

> The Chaos: Rhetoric around closing/opening the Strait remains highly erratic.

> The Takeaway: Both sides are burning precious time during this "ceasefire" by trading blows instead of negotiating. You must watch this daily until a final deal is locked in—time is running out.

Earnings Calendar

> The Lineup: Massive week featuring tech structural anchors ($TSMC, $ASML(ASML.US), $Aehr Test(AEHR.US)) alongside big banking ($Goldman Sachs(GS.US), $Citigroup(C.US), $Morgan Stanley(MS.US)).

> ASML Expectations: Morgan Stanley projects Q2 sales at €9B (3% ahead of consensus) and EPS +5% beating consensus. Look for strong EUV/DUV commentary.

> TSMC Expectations: Anticipate stellar 68–69% gross margins, top/bottom-line beats, raised guidance, and CoWoS capacity growth talk.

> The Catch: TSMC's CapEx might technically miss upside expectations solely because ASML is hitting physical EUV shipment shortages.

AI Themes Update

> SOX Technicals: Sitting at a neutral 49.78 RSI—neither overbought nor oversold, setting the stage for another potential rally.

> Photonics: Currently "stuck in the mud." Conflicting data on Co-Packaged Optics (CPO); Seeking Alpha suggests delays to 2029, while banks say on track, but a high-volume ramp before 2028 is unlikely due to TSMC COUPE yield struggles.

> Memory: Strong rebound. Demand and pricing remain highly bullish, further energized by the new SK Hynix ADR trading.

> Equipment (WFE): The structural winners. High demand is stretching lead times. Despite stretched valuations, their deep moats make their upcoming financial performance a likely positive shocker—to the point where ASML might actually use their pricing power to hike EUV prices.

Economic Calendar

> Tuesday (CPI & Fed Chair Warsh): Core CPI is expected at 2.9% (aided by lower gas prices bleeding into core). Keep a close eye on Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony to parse his views on AI's impact on inflation and the rollout of his new task force.

> Wednesday (PPI): Producer inflation is the ultimate leading indicator. If producers face higher input costs, they will pass them directly to consumers. A hot print here will be brutal for market sentiment.

Link in replies👇

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $Aehr Test(AEHR.US) Aehr Test Systems Wins Follow-On FOX-XP Production Order

👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

➤ 𝐀𝐞𝐡𝐫 𝐓𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐒𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐬 received a 𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰-𝐨𝐧 production order from its lead silicon photonics customer.

➤ Order includes a 𝐅𝐎𝐗-𝐗𝐏 multi-wafer burn-in system testing up to 𝟗 𝐰𝐚𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐬 simultaneously.

➤ System also includes the 𝐅𝐎𝐗 𝐖𝐚𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐏𝐚𝐤 𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐀𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐫 for fully automated operation.

➤ Customer's first FOX-XP system achieved 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 with automated wafer handling.

➤ Silicon photonics devices target 𝐀𝐈 and 𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐮𝐝 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 optical interconnect applications.

➤ Follow-on order was received early in 𝐀𝐞𝐡𝐫'𝐬 𝐟𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟕.

👉 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐈𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬:

➤ Follow-on order signals growing 𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 in Aehr's automation platform.

➤ Expanding silicon photonics demand could benefit 𝐀𝐈 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 and optical networking markets.

➤ Production adoption may support continued 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞 growth for Aehr's FOX-XP platform.

👉 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭:

➤ "The successful installation and production qualification of our first fully-automated system with this customer represents another important milestone in our long-term relationship with them." — 𝐆𝐚𝐲𝐧 𝐄𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐬𝐨𝐧, President and CEO of Aehr Test Systems.

➤ "The follow-on order received early in our fiscal 2027 reflects the customer's continued confidence in Aehr's FOX-XP platform." — 𝐆𝐚𝐲𝐧 𝐄𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐬𝐨𝐧, President and CEO of Aehr Test Systems.

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $Aehr Test(AEHR.US) Aehr Test Systems Receives Follow-On Production Order for FOX-XP System

👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

➤ 𝐀𝐞𝐡𝐫 𝐓𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐒𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐬 received a follow-on production order for a 𝐅𝐎𝐗-𝐗𝐏 system.

➤ Customer is a 𝐠𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐫 in networking products and solutions.

➤ System is configured to test 𝟗 𝐰𝐚𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐬 simultaneously at wafer level.

➤ Order includes a 𝐖𝐚𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐏𝐚𝐤 𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨 𝐀𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐫 and FOX WaferPak Contactors.

➤ Delivery is scheduled within the next 𝟔 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐬.

➤ Customer develops 𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐨𝐧 𝐩𝐡𝐨𝐭𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐬 transceivers for data center networking.

➤ Customer provided forecasts for 𝐚𝐝𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦 orders in 2026.

➤ Aehr delivered 𝟏 production system and 𝟐 engineering systems by May 2026.

➤ FOX wafer-level burn-in systems have been deployed to 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟐𝟓 customers.

👉 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐈𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬:

➤ Signals growing demand for 𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐨𝐧 𝐩𝐡𝐨𝐭𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐬 used in AI data centers.

➤ Follow-on order suggests a potential 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐫𝐚𝐦𝐩 and future system sales.

➤ Expanding hyperscale AI infrastructure may drive demand for Aehr's testing solutions.

👉 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭:

➤ "We are excited to receive this follow-on order for a full production FOX WLBI test cell, which reflects the urgency of the production ramp now underway to support the massive buildout of hyperscale AI and cloud data centers." — 𝐆𝐚𝐲𝐧 𝐄𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐬𝐨𝐧, President and Chief Executive Officer of Aehr Test Systems.

➤ "This engagement further validates wafer-level burn-in as an increasingly important part of silicon photonics manufacturing flow." — 𝐆𝐚𝐲𝐧 𝐄𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐬𝐨𝐧, President and Chief Executive Officer of Aehr Test Systems.