Last Updated 19:00:00 ET
longbridge loading

Everything's gone quiet around $AXT(AXTI.US) suddenly?

They're still a vital InP substrate bottleneck:

AI capex

More GPUs

Optical interconnect

Optical transceivers (800G → 1.6T → 3.2T)

Each transceiver.............................................

Interesting photonics selloff today on no news?

$Lumentum(LITE.US) down -4.95%

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) down -4.85%

$SIVE down -14.8%

$SOI down -5.73%

$AXT(AXTI.US) down -8.13%

$IQE down -12.13%

I t........................

This timeline of getting banned on $Reddit(RDDT.US) WSB for posting about $AXT(AXTI.US).

That stock going up thousands of percent.

Then becoming the #1 most subscribed to person on X feels kinda like a ......

Next year… I’m expecting there to be many articles about FAU + component bottlenecks.

Especially as the new CPO architecture led by $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) + $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) starts to scale.

Then...............

People wonder why I'm focusing on non-US markets recently.

Why? CPO is my #1 thematic long.

Markets don't know yet, the sudden paradigm shift in photonics...

I was one of the only to frontrun the curr...............................................................

Random CPO related names I like:

- $SIVE

- Foci (3363)

- $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US)

- Browave (3163)

- PCL (4977)

- $AXT(AXTI.US)

- Msscorps (6830)

- $IQE

- Shunsin (6451)

- Furukawa Electric (5801)

- $Macom Tech(M..............................

I've noticed that it's always like 4-6 weeks after my thesis post...

That a bunch of institution start buying up names like $AXT(AXTI.US), $SOI, or $IQE.

I'm not sure if it's just luck with timing.

Or if...

$AXT(AXTI.US)I have strong faith in this! However be prepared for volatility

I think this is just $Lumentum(LITE.US) corporate wording for:

“We don’t have enough InP substrates”.

Remember I sad last year that as photonics ramps up, $AXT(AXTI.US) will just keep growing as a crit...

Last year I called out $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US), $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US), $AXT(AXTI.US), and Innolight before the supercycle...

This year:

Found $SOI, which was the SiPH .....................