Remember the first time export controls were tightened? Watch $AXT(AXTI.US) $MP Materials(MP.US) $USA Rare Earth(USAR.US) etc and downstream impacts on optical names like $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US)
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- K
Not worried, just have to wait after mid-terms next week. My other holdings have been down but still standing firm with it. #AXTI #STX #CBRS to name a few.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Alphabet Suffers Its Worst Day Since 2004Alphabet had its worst day ever, and Amazon and Intel slid after hours. Eli Lilly and Apple bucked the selloff with records. Let's dig in 👇 💬 Big Tech is paying for AI with cash flow. Buying the Alpha...
- S
"Potential FCC rules on optical transceivers more likely to come at 3.2T" - $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US), $SIVE.
Morgan Stanley met with Washington officials:- Restrictions would likely start at 3.2T modules made in China (800g/1.6T would be left alone)- Potential restrictions would likely keep laser market tight (combining US DSPs + lasers could meet the 65% US value threshold per MS)- Chinese modules could qualify if 65% of bill of materials is US content. Chinese modules using US DSPs and lasers are already near that level- Analysts expect the positive impact on laser pricing... to be more important than any broad redistribution of transceiver market share.- Analysts don't expect this to bottleneck hyperscaler AI buildouts, they name InP substrate supply as the key variable to watch (hello $AXT(AXTI.US) ) TLDR:Component suppliers in general are really positive. Like $Semtech(SMTC.US) probably winner here for TIAs/drivers (I don't think this was listed), maybe $Maxlinear(MXL.US) for DSPs too. $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) another large beneficiary. $SIVE is high-key alpha for laser beneficaries since they have "tremendous capacity" coming online, and that points to US foundries (they haven't formally disclosed location). Since previous slideshows show 2 US foundries 1 Taiwan foundry (Win Semi) in terms of their capacity partnerships. And it's process of elimination. From CIOE Channel checks it does look like they're starting to work with Chinese pluggable players, (so they'd avenues moving forward as US supply chain component beneficiaries). Of course $Lumentum(LITE.US) / $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) would be happy. TLDR: Western supply chains for Lasers / DSPs / TIAs / others are already bottlenecked but qualified capacity becomes even more important. - E
IQE reiterating what the industry has said about InP:
"As we've previously highlighted, we are seeing high demand for our indium phosphide and gallium arsenide optical interconnect technologies.""Indium phosphide substrates are becoming some of the bottlenecks around significant volume increases."$AXT(AXTI.US) - T
With no dot plots and little guidance on rate hikes, traders place extra weight on Kevin Walsh speech. a hawkish hint can now cause a relatively huge wave in the market
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Warsh's Hawkish Turn Flips the Rate OddsFed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise at Friday's Jackson Hole keynote, warning inflation trends haven't "meaningfully improved" and pushing September rate-hike odds from about a third to...
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Warsh’s hawkish tone reinforces the Fed’s focus on persistent inflation rather than recent cooling data. The sharp rise in September hike expectations signals greater policy uncertainty and could keep Treasury yields elevated, strengthening the dollar while pressuring rate-sensitive equities, particularly growth and technology stocks. However, the Fed remains data-dependent, with upcoming employment and inflation reports likely to determine the September decision.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Warsh's Hawkish Turn Flips the Rate OddsFed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise at Friday's Jackson Hole keynote, warning inflation trends haven't "meaningfully improved" and pushing September rate-hike odds from about a third to...
