BITMINE IMMERSION TECNOLOGIES INC

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US) mNAV hit a low of 0.89 last week, with management repurchasing 2mn shares at $22.4

I've noticed many stock enthusiasts are quite interested in the "Chip Concentration" indicator, so I built a tracking dashboard. The data shows that although BTC rose from 80k to 84k and then pulled back over the past two days, this isn't considered a significant fluctuation (compared to the frequent 10k swings we saw in August). The concentration indicator remains at a high level, suggesting the major move hasn't happened yet.

The logic behind this indicator is: 'What percentage of BTC's cost basis is currently trapped within a narrow band of ±5% around the current price? (i.e., last traded at this price)'

The more chips concentrated here, the more holders have their cost basis squeezed near the current price. Once a breakout occurs, there will be enough profit-takers or stop-losses to further drive the price.

High chip concentration implies large future volatility, though the direction remains uncertain. A directional move is highly likely to occur in the final two weeks of October.

$Strategy(MSTR.US)

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)

Not all bad news, at least the 10y yield dropped.

With macro data this weak, BTC still held above 80k; I feel this pullback is nearing its end. ETH had high long leverage before and pulled back more, but its rebound should be stronger when it comes.

mNAV hit a low of 0.87; BMNR may restart buybacks this week. Will see how to update next Monday.

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US) Tom Lee, in his speech at yesterday's Token2049 forum, stated that the 5% coin accumulation target is about to be met, after which they will pause and stop buying, meaning no further dilution from financing.

Next, cash and staking yields will primarily be used for three things:

1. Share repurchase

2. Expanding the scale of MAVAN

3. New ETH ecosystem investments, potentially data centers, such as transitioning mining equipment from the original mining business

ETH has been doing pretty well recently; it's resilient to negative news and surges on positive ones, slowly recovering. $IShares Ethereum Trust ETF(ETHA.US)

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)

Crypto recently pulled back after a rally and is stabilizing; trading volumes for MSTR and BMNR have also declined to levels seen before this uptrend. Although ETFs are still seeing net inflows, the pace has slowed. These signs suggest the market has entered a consolidation phase.

The move on Aug 20 was driven by Trump's crypto meeting and Bessent's buybacks. The current consolidation reflects a wait for the next major macro signal, with two key dates to watch:

Sept 15: Clear Act vote - the most critical policy event for crypto, requiring 60 votes to advance to Senate consideration.

Sept 16: FOMC meeting - interest rate decision that will determine macro liquidity.

Until then, expect continued consolidation with shrinking volume.

This chart shows the power-law distribution of BMNR and ETH tracked since August '25.

As seen above, there is a clear gap for ETH between 2.4k and 2.8k. Below 2.4k, both upside and downside ranges contract significantly, corresponding to the compression of BMNR's premium when ETH fell into the 1.5k-2.4k range over the past six months; above 2.8k, these ranges expand, implying greater volatility for BMNR vs. ETH, thus opening up upside potential for mNAV.

The sharp drop in ETH in February '26 created a vacuum zone between 2.4k and 2.8k. Chips in this range haven't undergone sufficient turnover, meaning there's little resistance here. A breakout could lead to a rapid surge to 2.8k, at which point BMNR's mNAV also has the opportunity to expand significantly.

The key observation level for ETH is the breakout of 2.8k.

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)

BMNP has also hit a new high. Although liquidity remains mediocre and not on the same level as STRC, we look forward to unlocking more potential in the future to enrich BMNR's financing toolkit.

Last week, BMNR's average daily trading volume was 1.3 billion, nearly 4x its previous level, and mNAV also bounced back to 1 at certain highs. Liquidity is the foundation of DAT; management restored cash positions via ATM offerings, accumulating over 30k coins and 300 million in cash.

Over the past two months, they repurchased shares when mNAV was at 0.8 and raised capital via ATM when mNAV returned to 1, corresponding to stock prices of roughly 16 for repurchases and 24 for equity financing.

I strongly agree with management's operational strategy over the past two months, and it seems the market is buying in as well.

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)

The net capital inflow into the 'Big Pie' and 'Second Pie' ETFs is still accelerating. After the massive single-day surge that triggered a short squeeze the day before yesterday, sustained upward momentum requires real capital to continue absorbing positions, which appears to be the current trend.

$Strategy(MSTR.US)

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)

$iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(IBIT.US)

$IShares Ethereum Trust ETF(ETHA.US)