ETH has been doing pretty well recently; it's resilient to negative news and surges on positive ones, slowly recovering. $IShares Ethereum Trust ETF(ETHA.US)
$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)
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Crypto recently pulled back after a rally and is stabilizing; trading volumes for MSTR and BMNR have also declined to levels seen before this uptrend. Although ETFs are still seeing net inflows, the pace has slowed. These signs suggest the market has entered a consolidation phase.
The move on Aug 20 was driven by Trump's crypto meeting and Bessent's buybacks. The current consolidation reflects a wait for the next major macro signal, with two key dates to watch:
Sept 15: Clear Act vote - the most critical policy event for crypto, requiring 60 votes to advance to Senate consideration.
Sept 16: FOMC meeting - interest rate decision that will determine macro liquidity.
Until then, expect continued consolidation with shrinking volume.
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This chart shows the power-law distribution of BMNR and ETH tracked since August '25.
As seen above, there is a clear gap for ETH between 2.4k and 2.8k. Below 2.4k, both upside and downside ranges contract significantly, corresponding to the compression of BMNR's premium when ETH fell into the 1.5k-2.4k range over the past six months; above 2.8k, these ranges expand, implying greater volatility for BMNR vs. ETH, thus opening up upside potential for mNAV.
The sharp drop in ETH in February '26 created a vacuum zone between 2.4k and 2.8k. Chips in this range haven't undergone sufficient turnover, meaning there's little resistance here. A breakout could lead to a rapid surge to 2.8k, at which point BMNR's mNAV also has the opportunity to expand significantly.
The key observation level for ETH is the breakout of 2.8k.
$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)
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BMNP has also hit a new high. Although liquidity remains mediocre and not on the same level as STRC, we look forward to unlocking more potential in the future to enrich BMNR's financing toolkit.
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Last week, BMNR's average daily trading volume was 1.3 billion, nearly 4x its previous level, and mNAV also bounced back to 1 at certain highs. Liquidity is the foundation of DAT; management restored cash positions via ATM offerings, accumulating over 30k coins and 300 million in cash.
Over the past two months, they repurchased shares when mNAV was at 0.8 and raised capital via ATM when mNAV returned to 1, corresponding to stock prices of roughly 16 for repurchases and 24 for equity financing.
I strongly agree with management's operational strategy over the past two months, and it seems the market is buying in as well.
$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)
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The net capital inflow into the 'Big Pie' and 'Second Pie' ETFs is still accelerating. After the massive single-day surge that triggered a short squeeze the day before yesterday, sustained upward momentum requires real capital to continue absorbing positions, which appears to be the current trend.
$Strategy(MSTR.US)
$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)
$iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(IBIT.US)
$IShares Ethereum Trust ETF(ETHA.US)
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Compared to the gains in BMNR and ETH yesterday, the breakout of the large bullish candle on ETH/BTC is even more exciting, indicating that ETH is not simply following BTC's rise but is showing a stronger upward momentum.
Rising from a June low of 0.025 to 0.033, if the driver behind yesterday's crypto surge was liquidity from Treasury repurchases plus positive sentiment from the White House crypto meeting, the strength of ETH/BTC confirms the narrative: clear regulation → tailwinds for tokenization → tailwinds for ETH.
PS: Heard yesterday's liquidation event was second only in scale to Oct 11, but this time it was short sellers who got liquidated.
$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)
$IShares Ethereum Trust ETF(ETHA.US)
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Last week, two leading DAT companies both conducted share repurchases. BMNR repurchased 4.5 million shares, marking the third consecutive week of repurchases, with a cumulative total of 16 million shares.
MSTR also engaged in repurchases, but they were buying back STRC. The funds were raised by selling BTC (1638) and utilizing MSTR's ATM (3 million shares). It appears the company prioritizes protecting STRC, which is somewhat misaligned with the interests of MSTR shareholders.
$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)
$Strategy(MSTR.US)
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After the initial repurchase of 5.5 million shares, BMNR continued to repurchase another 6.1 million shares last week. mNAV is around 0.85, and ETH/BTC has rebounded to 0.03, a high point in nearly 3 months, with decent momentum.
$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)
$IShares Ethereum Trust ETF(ETHA.US)