FIGR251121C50000.US

Deutsche Bank: Humanoids

Market Growth Forecast

> Rapid Expansion: The global humanoid robot market is projected to see significant growth, moving from approximately 3,030 units in 2024 to an estimated 700,500 units by 2030.

> Long-Term Outlook: Looking further ahead, the forecast anticipates the market scaling to 70 million units by 2050.

> Market Value: The market value is also expected to climb sharply, reaching $1,050,000 million (or $1.05 trillion) by 2050.

Regional Dominance

> China's Lead: China is currently the primary driver of the market, accounting for 85% of global shipments in 2024. While this percentage is forecast to decrease as other markets mature, China is still expected to remain a dominant player, holding 43% of the market share by 2050.

> United States: The U.S. share is projected to grow from 12% in 2024 to 43% by 2050, effectively matching China's share by the end of the forecast period.

> Other Regions: Europe, Japan, and other regions are expected to grow from a small 3% share in 2024 to 14% of the global market by 2050.

Key Industry Players

> United States: Major players include Tesla, Figure, Agility, Boston Dynamics, and 1X. Tesla is forecasted to be a significant contributor, growing from 100 units in 2024 to 150,000 units by 2030.

> China: Prominent companies include Unitree, AGIBOT, UBTECH, Leju Robotics, Booster Robotics, and Galbot. Unitree is projected to reach 100,000 units by 2030.

Figure Robotics is my favorite Robotics company. Apptronik and Dyna are the other interesting ones.

The problem: Figure, Apptronik, Dyna are all private. $39B+ marks.

$Robostrategy(BOT.US) is a closed end fund on Nasdaq that holds pre IPO robotics names in one ticker.

Top holdings:

• Figure AI — 25.48%

• Dyna Robotics — 25.48%

• Apptronik — 25.48%

• Dexmate — 6.84%

• Path Robotics — 4.10%

It is actually a concentrated humanoid bet.

What I like:

→ First clean public access to names that usually stay VC only

→ NAV updated to $10.51 (June 30)

→ Labor + AI are entering the warehouse

What made me pause:

→ Closed end fund. Price can trade far above NAV

→ Private marks, not daily liquid holdings

→ 2.5% management fee on top of concentration risk - This is high for me.

If robotics disappoint, this wrapper gets hit hard. I will read more on it, but decided not to buy it yet. Too much premium and fee to my taste.

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $Figure Tech Solutions - CL(FIGR.US) Figure Reports Record Q2 Marketplace Volume Above Guidance

👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

➤ Figure said preliminary 𝐐𝟐 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 results exceeded the top end of prior guidance.

➤ Consumer Loan Marketplace Volume reached 𝐚 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝 $𝟒.𝟐𝟓𝟗 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 in Q2, up 𝟒𝟕% QoQ and 𝟏𝟑𝟐% YoY.

➤ June Consumer Loan Marketplace Volume rose to $𝟏.𝟓𝟏𝟗 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧, up 𝟖% MoM and 𝟏𝟓𝟓% YoY.

➤ $𝐘𝐋𝐃𝐒 in circulation totaled $𝟓𝟓𝟔 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 at June-end, roughly flat MoM.

➤ Democratized Prime 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐝 𝐎𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐬 reached $𝟑𝟗𝟐 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧, up 𝟐% MoM and 𝟔% QoQ.

➤ 𝐁𝐨𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 increased to $𝟒𝟏𝟒 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧, while 𝐀𝐯𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐋𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 rose to $𝟓𝟐𝟐 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧.

➤ Figure will transition from 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐥𝐲 disclosures to a weekly performance dashboard.

👉 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐈𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬:

➤ Marketplace volume growth signals 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠 consumer lending demand and platform adoption.

➤ Results above guidance may reinforce confidence in Figure's 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 growth outlook.

➤ Weekly reporting could provide investors with more 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐭 operating performance updates.

Just a random thought, leading US humanoid players strangely me of the current LLM dynamics:

Agility ( $Churchill Capital XI(CCXI.US) ) kinda feels like Anthropic for robotics.

With $Amazon(AMZN.US) and $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) heavily backing it, ingrained with $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Deepmind (like TPUs). And it starts off with enterprise commercialization.

Optimus is kinda off doing its own thing like xAI.

Supported by Tesla/Elon and his visionary roadmap as usual.

Figure is like ChatGPT

With Microsoft/OpenAI investing (kinda like Microsoft), then ended up kinda competing them by building their own VlA and setting them behind.

But ends up top 2 leaders anyway.

Boston Dynamics is Gemini

Kinda started the entire humanoids thing like transformers with backflip videos.

With R&D supported by $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) but somehow let everyone else leapfrog them in commercialization.

And then there’s $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) just chilling, silently powering the entire humanoids ecosystem.

$Robostrategy(BOT.US) is the biggest red flag.

NAV is $7.34/share. The stock is now trading at $37.92.

You are basically buying Figure at $200B+ while it’s valued at $39B.

Buying the company is just trading pyramid float dynamics off other retail.

Not the appreciation or underlying fundamentals.

To make matters worse:

There’s $2B dilution as valuation arbitrage as you all get diluted to oblivion.

I got a lot of fund managers dming influencers like myself about it but in reality:

Retail just looks like exit liquidity.

Source: Serenity

$Figure Tech Solutions - CL(FIGR.US) | 𝐅𝐢𝐠𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲: Jefferies maintains 𝐇𝐨𝐥𝐝, raises 𝐏𝐓 𝐭𝐨 $𝟒𝟑

Analyst sees strong loan marketplace growth and expanding platform adoption supporting higher estimates.