Jabil

Just some TLDR notes on $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) earnings:

- Expects full qualification of 1.6T products by their hyperscaler customer within next couple of weeks

(helpful revenue ramp #2, timelines)

- Continues to believe that AOI will have the largest AI DC transceiver production capacity in the US

(reiterating ambitions during a time when their competitors might get banned)

- Expects facilities toward InP capacity to come online in early 2027

(timeline FYI in terms of further ramp)

- Total capacity is approaching 200,000/u per month, EOY 650,000/u per month of 800g/1.6t. EOY 2027, 930,000/u

(this is the ramp i want to see)

- "increase our manufacturing capacity for our external light source or ELSFP. That's for co-packaged optics or CPO". we anticipate ramping production later this year and into 2027, ultimately culminating in about 400,000 pieces per month in 2028

(need some time to model this into revenue)

- "As we have mentioned before, we've been manufacturing lasers internally for many years. This has allowed us to avoid some of the shortages that have affected others in the industry"

(vertical integration bull case during CW/EML laser shortages)

- We believe that in the future, CPO will continue to drive increased demand for high-power lasers

(thesis validation on CPO sector)

- "to our long-term objective of returning non-GAAP gross margins to around 40%"

- "We ended the second quarter with $508.8 million in total cash equivalents"

I need to double check if the ATM finished or not

- "our ability to deliver revenue in general, and specifically when it comes to 800G products, is limited by our production capacity right now" "If we could produce more, we could ship more right now"

Demand > Supply validation.

- "Most of the increased capacity will be in U.S. Even so, let me say that, like I keep emphasizing, that is not good enough for the customer demand. The customer demand is 20%-40% higher."

Unholy photonics demand validation across the whole sector, read through for $Lumentum(LITE.US), $SIVE / $Jabil(JBL.US), and others is amazing.

- "Not in the next two, three years, especially the demand is so big. Okay? Even combined AI, $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US), $Broadcom(AVGO.US) all together, it's still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next few years"

More optical sector demand validation.

- CPO Timelines: "If you're talking about really high volume manufacturer [for CPO market], I would say more like the late Q3 next year" and "We have been working very close with at least five customer"

If you care about current earnings (which I'm not really looking at closely)

Revenue: $191M vs. $190m

EPS: $.06 vs. $.02

TLDR: Extraordinary demand across the laser + optical sector read through. Kinda supporting Lumentum CEO statement that laser shortage is worse than memory shortages.

2027 capacity ramp on track. To map inflection period with timelines, would be around early next year, as stated in their previous earnings call.

AAOI has the customers now. Limitation is making enough lasers and transceivers.

Mitsubishi Motors joins robotics race to deploy humanoid workers by 2027.

Pairing with Highlanders, a Japanese robotics company.

- Agility $Churchill Capital XI(CCXI.US) x Foxconn, Toyota

- Apptronik x $Jabil(JBL.US), Mercedes

- Highlanders x Mitsubishi

- Figure × BMW

- Boston Dynamics x Hyundai (subsidiaries)

- Optimus x Tesla (Internal)

- Rainbow Robotics x Samsung (subsidiaries)

Idk if it's just me of there's a lot of patterns with humanoid companies playing buddy-buddy up with a major auto player/manufacturer.

If they're not already vertically integrated by one already.

Then the Chinese players like UBTech/AgiBot/Unitree don't seem to care and work with a wide variety of auto players in China.

Curious how this trend plays out...

$SIVE is raising ~$61M (600M SEK) to expand manufacturing capacity for InP lasers and optical amplifiers.

Sivers operates as a fab-lite model so this is likely hinting at foundry allocation/scaling for CW DFB laser ramp across Jabil, and their other partners.

It could also point to broader foundry allocation/scaling beyond the already announced WIN partnership.

My feedback is that it's very bullish if it's comprised of long-only institutions and there's no heavy discount (30 day VWAP). Otherwise, would need to reaccess if there's arb or short term investors.

This is the perfect time to get ideal strategic investors like $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) on the cap table. As well as focusing on having more US institutional support.

Especially considering $56M is a small check to a single US institution that want photonics exposure (eg. look at Poet's $400M registered direct offering for sentiment).

A lot of it is "it depends when more info comes out", but this looks like a very positive signal for mass production given Siver's fab-lite models.

I've reached 900k followers, thank you everyone!

Just some reflection, it's actually a nightmare at higher counts...

Which is new to me, since I started at almost nothing earlier this year.

1. Threats of safety, which I don't enjoy.

- Random new accounts sending personal threats

- Mysterious foreign accounts, sending coercive messages the moment I mention a foreign ticker

If I hold an opinion about a stock, I'd prefer not to have anyone show up on the street with a knife at night since it's safety risk at this point...

Never felt like I'd have to take that into consideration for holding an opinion.

2. Egregious media narratives

- Lot of outlets try to dismiss my ideas like $RPI or $SIVE as "meme stocks" or me as "meme trader" when I talk about supply chain chokepoints or fundamental catalysts to revenue due to AI.

Without ever covering the core ideas or hyperscaler mapping I've done.

I let success validate my ideas, but it's annoying when they can just pretend their claims like "___ will imminently crash as a fact" which ends up not happening.

Or that "___" is just a retail meme stock without mentioning $Jabil(JBL.US), Ayar, $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) or others for CPO scale up or pluggables.

I'm grateful to some outlets, like in Belgium for $XFAB coverage, but many others try and paint their own narrative rather than covering a very nuanced thesis objectively.

- When I mention a ticker in a foreign market, some try to frame me as some "adversarial account"!

I'm just sharing ideas, and I'll always disclose positions/financial interest if I have them.

If I say I have none, they just make up some narrative that I'm some foreign institution or random group inside their country that does.

Some have even tried hilariously forging screenshots of me to harm my reputation, which was annoying to deal with. Since it's easier to textedit a photo and spread it around than it is to dispel disinformation.

Lot of institutions know me personally by now.

I just don't go broadcasting my identity to random people in the media/public, since personal security gets expensive and I just want to live about my day.

3. Endless X bot spam

- I have endless hundreds of comments a day trying to link external communities pretending they're me.

I manually delete, and block thousands of these accounts, sometimes hit regular people by accident.

And it's extremely exhausting to the point my fingers cramp certain days.

Even if I give the most blatant warnings in bio, people still get scammed and think it's me. Then I get blamed for it too.

I actually had a conversation where someone asked if a scammer was me.

I said no verbatim, then they double checked like 2-3 more times because they didn't believe I said no because someone had the same username on another scam platform.

In another world, maybe we'll get automod type tools. But until then, it's mentally exhausting dealing with all of this. But I do so anyways since I don't want my followers to get scammed.

4. Endless engagement baiting

- I have tons of people making up fake stuff about me, tagging me in posts, randomly bashing my ideas while missing any technical nuance in order to get me to comment or farm views.

It's a catch 22 since the moment I reply, they get a lot of views, which was their goal. And if I don't reply it just looks like I'm avoiding something (which is not true).

I'm very transparent, I always try and entertain people who disagree first. But when it gets into personal attacks or leading questions/disinformation rather than substance then I don't engage.

It's a little sad though when people I've interacted with end up caring more about engagement over relationships down the road.

5. People missing the nuance

- I share ideas pretty often and I always maintain I don't want people to copytrade or blindly follow, which is why I haven't set up any copytrading apps.

Before it was just posting with a few $Reddit(RDDT.US) friends on ideas like $AXT(AXTI.US), $Nebius(NBIS.US), or $Astera Labs(ALAB.US), and people were more knowledgeable traders.

Then seeing if markets validate my guesses like with InP substrate bottlenecks.

But because many turned out directionally right, to the point it became a central talking point between China/US trade relations, lot of random folks started to follow my account last few months.

But many of them miss nuances with float dilution, or material updates along the way such as rate hikes, and I get blamed if a thesis changes.

Now since there's so many random people, even if I share an idea about $Cerebras(CBRS.US) last Friday.

At market open I had people panicking over a 2% drop, asking me if I did something to a $44B+ company, even if it went up 20%+ today.

Now I have compliance review for posts, which delays things a lot but makes sure people don't get the wrong idea. And I have to be careful about my timing, so I post new ideas when markets close.

Before, it was just sharing ideas the moment I had them during lunch or in the shower, so this is becoming a headache.

6. I post my core ideas for free. And I've always said this from the start.

I actually made my subscribers chat literally by accident, and set the bare minimum amount on purpose since I didn't want to take people's money. But kept it so I could avoid the bots and not spam the main timeline with random thoughts/scrapped research.

I think me becoming the #1 most subscribed to person on X was literally by accident.

But lot of weird narratives out there when media or others don't believe that I just genuinely want to share my ideas for free.

And that people shouldn't need to pay $300 in a paywalled community to see them.

_

Not sure if people want to read it all, but just some things I've gone through.

It's not as much fun at higher numbers and it would be nice to go back to when I was smaller.

Regardless, I'd rather not turn this into a job, or make it feel like one.

Will probably take a break when I hit 1M as a milestone and do something else that will help out the community like sharing my research pipelines and such.

Think a lot of my friends at 10-50K follower counts, seem to experience some of these issues too. But problems get magnified a lot at this level.

I never needed the X creator fees or anything, just wanted to share ideas for fun if people wanted to listen.

And didn't expect any popularity, but it's nice to see that people find my ideas compelling.

$Jabil(JBL.US) | Stifel reiterates 𝐁𝐮𝐲 on 𝐉𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥, 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐏𝐓 𝐭𝐨 $𝟒𝟔𝟎

Analyst sees a strengthened multi-year setup, noting the quality of the EPS raise is more diversified than purely AI-led.

📊 Watchlist for tomorrow (Not Financial Advice)

$Dell Tech(DELL.US) $Jabil(JBL.US) $Pharvaris BV(PHVS.US) $GE Vernova(GEV.US) $Capricor Therap(CAPR.US) $Ultragenyx Pharma(RARE.US) $Vir Biotechnology(VIR.US) $Vertiv(VRT.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $Arm(ARM.US)

📌 See pinned tweet for how I use my WL

Analysis & Signals on $SIVE x $Jabil(JBL.US) Earnings (tomorrow):

Reminder: Sivers announced a collaboration with Jabil (Apr 26) to develop a 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver for AI data centers.

Jabil's AI numbers are a leading indicator of the end demand that sizes Sivers' TAM, with their 1.6T LRO program as a direct demand channel for Sivers' DFB lasers.

Key signals from $Jabil(JBL.US)'s earnings that reinforce $SIVE's bull thesis:

1. 1.6T LRO transceiver program + ramp timing into 2027

2. TAM expansion via raising FY2026 AI revenue

3. Commentary on optical component/laser supply tightness (links to InP scarcity tailwind)

TLDR on each point:

1. 1.6T transceiver program

1.6T / SiPho / CPO commentary has the highest impact on Sivers directly.

Jabil usually highlight ramp timings etc, so even something like "1.6T pipeline strong / photonics scaling" reinforces the program's commercial trajectory.

Which in turn would be positive read-through for Sivers' tech.

Ofc, Jabil are unlikely to name a component supplier on an earnings call, and has many optical irons in the fire like its own $Intel(INTC.US) derived SiPho, CPO, NPO.

And just as a caveat: Jabil thriving in optics does not require Sivers to win...Jabil could source lasers elsewhere or lean on internal/SiPho content.

2. TAM expansion

AI durability / 2027 framing will frame Sivers' own timing.

Sivers' photonics ramp is mainly a 2027+ story, where management say "multiple ramps on track for 2027".

Jabil's Q2 call already flagged:

- A second hyperscaler ramping in Mexico

- A third in discussions

- A margin-expansion/growth setup for FY2027

So continued confident 2027 framing directly supports Sivers' conversion window.

3. Commentary on optical component/laser supply tightness

Jabil flagged memory (DDR4 and below) + PCB constraints at Q2.

Any commentary on optical component or laser tightness would corroborate the InP-scarcity tailwind that is central to the Sivers "structural chokepoint" thesis.

E.g. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) has pushed laser lead-times past 2027 + InP is constrained which supports Sivers' InP laser scarcity tailwind.

---

Just as a high level summary on the most impactful read-throughs for Sivers.

Where Jabil's earnings tomorrow can prove that optical/AI TAM is growing via their photonics/1.6T efforts.

However, it cannot prove that Sivers wins volume against vertically integrated rivals like $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) / $Lumentum(LITE.US), or the dollar value / margin of Sivers' content.

That is the point I've been highlighting for a while....management execution and deal flow.

Ultimately, the Jabil program is a pluggable (LRO) play for the near-term, high-volume architecture for Sivers.

With Sivers' CPO exposure running mainly through Ayar Labs, $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US), $POET Tech(POET.US), and O-Net/Enablence.

$Jabil(JBL.US) | Stifel maintains 𝐁𝐮𝐲 on 𝐉𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥, 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐏𝐓 𝐭𝐨 $𝟒𝟑𝟎 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 $𝟐𝟗𝟎

Analyst raises estimates on stronger customer footprint and capacity, but flags asymmetric risk from high expectations already priced into the stock.

I don't like or dislike $SIVE:

The information discovery edge & forward bull narrative has been priced in:

Where Sivers makes a genuinely necessary component, InP external lasers that silicon can't replace, w/ four legit AI design-ins:

1. Ayar light source

2. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) reference design

3. $POET Tech(POET.US) Optical Interposer ELS

4. $Jabil(JBL.US) 1.6T LRO pluggable module

That is the true, defensible bull case + it's not a mirage.

Further highlighted by:

- JP Morgan disclosed a ~5% stake

- index inclusions have happened

- multiple analysts now publish

But now:

You're essentially betting on Sivers' conversion.

I.e. will the design-ins turn into qualified volume revenue, and when?

The same story has repeated itself with hundreds of growth names over the years - $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) and early $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) etc.

Sivers aren't an early stage start-up, and management have acknowledged huge, growing interest in the company now.

So the pressure should be on them to deliver volume ramps in accordance with widely porported timelines of 2027-2028.

Another collaboration announcement like $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) wouldn't signal that, but it could definitely lead to another re-rate higher given their tiny MC.

But ideally, at some point soon, you do wanna see some sort of POs etc that confirms their $799M "opportunity" pipeline.

No idea when that happens given all the conflicting info this week on CPO timelines (SemiAnalysis, MS etc).

Imo, it's turned into a waiting game for Ayar / $Jabil(JBL.US) / $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) - which then go to ship to end customers like $AMD(AMD.US) / $Microsoft(MSFT.US) / $Amazon(AMZN.US).

And what % of the TAM Sivers can secure given they all multi-source laser supply from other places like $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) or $Macom Tech(MTSI.US) or $Lumentum(LITE.US) - who are known to have laser shortages.

Will continue to hold my position - don't see any point in liquidating large % gains rn.

Had some more time go through $SIVE earnings transcript, it’s very bullish:

- $Jabil(JBL.US) pluggable partnership led to more optical transceiver requests for $SIVE

So maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other large players are my guess.

- More laser capacity on top of Win Semi with more partners being developed. “When the timing is right, we will bring those details to the market.”

CEO said it’s not just Win/Glasgow. I’m already confident in Win Semi scaling capacity, given they’re critical in SpaceX / $Broadcom(AVGO.US) supply chains already.

But this derisks those capacity ramp even more. Just not publicly disclosed yet.

- tremendous executive credibility and experience with U.S. markets, as well as strong M&A experience

Flagged M&A in regards to new board members, which we guessed based on their backgrounds.

- “Production orders are imminent from our lead SATCOM”…

So that’s volume ramp for space

- U.S dual listing progressing smoothly

No exact timeline, my personal guess was around late Q3 or Q4. Probably after June board meeting, they’ll announce timing since that’s when new board members come in.

- “Viewing the ecosystem vendors as competitors is the wrong way to go about it in supercycles where demand far outstrips supply.”

Too much demand in photonics

- “Over the last five months, there's been a rapid increase in the Photonics pipeline as well”

Basically 77% growth pipeline came from photonics (which validated thesis about cpo/pluggable growth vectors for sivers)

TLDR:

We moved from “can sivers get customers this small and can they compete with $Lumentum(LITE.US)?”

To execution eg. “how much can sivers even produce to feed into each supercycle” as they’re volume ramping while demand > supply.”

To me that’s very positive if anything they make gets bought.

Also there’s likely to be a lot of TAM expansion in the photonics space post-M&A as well as more ongoing hyperscaler supplier qualifications hinted.

Again, revenue pipeline surged 77% in just their quarter (5m) largely from photonics… over the entire company’s history.

As CPO scales up h2 2027 onwards, I’m expecting the revenue numbers to look like an exponential curve.