Goldman Sachs: WFE
Overall Market Growth> Significant Upward Revisions: Goldman Sachs has revised its total WFE forecasts upward, projecting $150B in 2026 (a 6% increase over old estimates) scaling up significantly to $281B by 2028 (+35% vs. old estimates).> Strong Year-over-Year (YoY) Momentum: Total WFE year-over-year growth is expected to peak at +45% in 2027, following a robust +36% in 2026.Segment Breakdown (DRAM & Foundry/Logic Lead)> Foundry/Logic Drive: Foundry and Logic segments account for the largest share, with 2026 spending estimated at $92B (+9% revision) growing rapidly to $162B by 2028.> DRAM Surge: DRAM is forecasted for explosive growth, moving from $48B in 2026 to $97B by 2028, reflecting persistent high demand with YoY growth rates staying above 35%.> NAND Lagging: In contrast, NAND is experiencing downward near-term revisions (-4% to -$13% compared to older estimates), though it is still expected to recover toward $22B by 2028.Regional Trends (China vs. Ex-China)> Sustained China Demand: China continues to command a robust appetite for WFE investments, expected to contribute $44.3B (29% of total WFE) in 2026 and peaking around $60.7B by 2028.> Ex-China Expansion: The rest of the world (Ex-China) accounts for the lion's share of spending, projected to accelerate from $106.0B in 2026 up to $220.2B (78% of the market) by 2028.(Cred @knockouttrader)$Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $ACM Research(ACMR.US)
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Korea continues to import WFE equipment as it expands and upgrades existing fab capacity. Etch, in particular, has clearly been an area of focus.
But sometimes the data points to a more nuanced picture. Within Etch, the growth story is overwhelmingly concentrated in Dry/Plasma Etch.Why? 👉The dry etch surge lines up with SK Hynix's M15X and Samsung's P4 ramps, and the HBM buildout compounds it: TSV etch adds an extra dry etch step vs conventional DRAM, structurally raising dry etch intensity per wafer.Biggest beneficiary? 👉Lam Research - dominant in memory dry etch, and the TSV etch steps that HBM adds only deepen its exposure.Source: Chips & Wafers
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Semicap DRAM revenue is on fire. New peaks are loading. ASML has been gaining share in DRAM, driven by higher EUV adoption. AMAT stable. Lam and KLA cyclical gainers. TEL has been a share donor and surprisingly underperformed.
Source: Sravan Kundojjala
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Taiwan DRAM maker Nanya Tech plans to build new 12-inch wafer fabs in Yunlin and Pingtung, Taiwan for DRAM and customized DRAM, media report.
-The Yunlin fab will focus on sub-10nm process node products for AI.-Nanya’s latest project, the NT$300 billion Linkou 5A DRAM fab, due for mass production in 2028-Media quote a Nanya executive confirming plans for additional new fabs, but declining to comment where. $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $ASML(ASML.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) $Tokyo Electron(TOELY.US) #semiconductorsSource: Dan Nystedt
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Windfall Ahead, AMAT Gets Cold Feet?
Applied Materials (AMAT) reported its FY26 Q3 results post-market on Aug 14, 2026 Beijing time, covering the quarter ended Jul 2026. Key takeaways follow: 1) Core metrics:
Revenue was $9.12bn (+25% YoY), slightly above the Street’s $9.02bn. Growth was fueled by the build-out of AI compute infrastructure, which boosted demand for advanced logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging equipment.
GPM was 50.3%. It improved by 40bps QoQ...
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AMATFinancial Analysis - A
Nanya Technology’s board approved to raise 2026 capex to NT$69.7 billion (US$2.2 billion) from NT$52 billion to speed up work on its new Fab 5A, media report, which is ultimately expected to cost up to NT$346.6 billion (US$10.7B) by 2029. It’s the biggest investment by a Taiwan DRAM maker in 20-years. $Micron Tech(MU.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $SSNLF $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) #semiconductors
Source: Dan Nystedt
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GF Securities is forecasting global WFE to reach $236 billion in 2027 and then $295 billion in 2028.
$ACM Research(ACMR.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) $ASML(ASML.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) - F
Top movers: $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $Starbucks(SBUX.US) $Fortinet(FTNT.US)
Top Losers: $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Qualcomm(QCOM.US) $Carvana(CVNA.US) - E
KLA with macro assumptions on the semiconductor industry:
> CY25-CY30E semiconductor industry CAGR of ~11% > Wafer Equipment grows ~1 pt. faster than Semi to $215B +/- $20B > ~60% foundry / logic, ~40% memory > Process Control market grows > WFE$KLA $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) - H
$Lam Research(LRCX.US) | Evercore ISI 𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 on 𝐋𝐚𝐦 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡, 𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐏𝐓 𝐚𝐭 $𝟑𝟓𝟓
Analyst sees strong fundamentals but advises waiting to add shares, believing near-term positives are largely baked into the high valuation. - E
Morgan Stanley: Semiconductor Production Equipment
Market Dynamics by Application> Segment Dominance: Logic/Foundry is the largest segment of the Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market. Within this segment, TSMC accounts for approximately 30–50% of the market.> Industry Specialization: Among major Japanese equipment makers, companies are typically associated with specific application plays:SCREEN: Primarily a Logic/Foundry play.TEL (Tokyo Electron): Primarily a DRAM-related play.KOKUSAI: Primarily a NAND-related play.Front-End vs. Back-End> Market Split: The semiconductor equipment market is split roughly 9:1 between front-end and back-end equipment.> Trend Rebound: While the back-end equipment share trended downward for over 20 years as front-end tool value-add and unit prices rose, it has recently rebounded due to surging demand in the AI semiconductor market.Competitive Landscape in Key Equipment Segments> Lithography: The market is highly concentrated, with ASML holding a 95% share of the CY25 worldwide lithography equipment market.> Dry Etching: The market for etchers is diverse. Lam Research leads with a 43% share, followed by Tokyo Electron (20%) and AMAT (19%).In Conductor Etch, Lam Research is the dominant player with a 50% share.In Dielectric Etch, Tokyo Electron holds the majority share at 55%.Nvidia Compute Chip Cost Breakdown> Gross Profit: The gross profit margin accounts for 75% of the total cost. > Frontend Costs: The wafer cost represents 6% of the total. > Backend Costs: These total 19% of the cost structure, broken down into: HBM cost: 13%. Test cost: 3%. CoWoS cost: 3%ASIC Cost Breakdown> Gross Profit: The gross profit margin is significantly lower at 45% of the total cost. > Frontend Costs: The wafer cost represents 13% of the total. > Backend Costs: These total 42% of the cost structure, broken down into: HBM cost: 24%. Test cost: 7%. CoWoS cost: 11%.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US)+1
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Needham: WFE Spending
> Estimates Raised: Needham has increased its adjusted WFE spending estimates for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028; 2026: Adjusted WFE is now estimated at $145.3B (up from $130.1B). 2027: Adjusted WFE is now estimated at $201.0B (up from $149.6B). 2028: New CY28 WFE forecast introduced at $191.6B. Growth Drivers: The upgrades are primarily driven by accelerating DRAM and NAND spending, alongside faster-than-expected growth in leading-edge foundry/logic. > CY28 Outlook: The forecast for 2028 reflects a "pause in growth" following two years of expansion, with memory spending—specifically DRAM—expected to moderate. Key Segment Insights> Foundry/Logic: Spending has strengthened, particularly at leading-edge nodes. For 2027, Needham expects leading-edge growth of approximately 30% year-over-year. > DRAM: Described as "the true AI bottleneck," DRAM WFE for 2027 is now modeled at $84.1B, a 72% increase from the previous estimate of $49.0B. > NAND: While pricing has been volatile, long-term bit growth driven by AI is expected to remain in the mid-20s to 30% range. $KLA(KLAC.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) - E
HSBC: WFE Forecasts
Terafab Impact> WFE Outlook: Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) investments from Terafab might be limited in 2026 and 2027 as they initially focus on building the physical shell of the fab. However, HSBC now models Terafab capex at USD 3bn / 10bn / 20bn for 2026e / 2027e / 2028e respectively, with spending starting to flow into their WFE estimates in 2027.Upgraded WFE Forecasts for 2028> Rising Visibility: Customers of semiconductor capital equipment companies are showing rising visibility into 2028, signaling worries about ongoing supply constraints and pointing to another strong year of growth.> Higher Growth Targets: Bottom-up capex analysis suggests semiconductor company capex will grow by 14% in 2028.> Upgraded WFE Growth: HSBC has significantly raised its 2028 WFE growth forecast to 20% YoY (up from their previous May 2026 estimate of just 5.3% YoY). This outperformance is expected to be driven by direct spending on equipment rather than just clean room shells.$ASML(ASML.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) - A
Nanya Technology plans to spend NT$200 billion (US$6.2 billion) on 2027 capex, up from this year’s NT$50B+, media report. Nanya is aiming for 30,000 wafers per month (wpm) capacity by 2028 at its new fab, which will ultimately reach 45Kwpm. Around NT$100B has already been spent on the total NT$480B fab project. Nanya is the biggest Taiwan DRAM maker. $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $ASML(ASML.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $KLA(KLAC.US)
Source: Dan Nystedt
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SK Hynix’s U.S. Listing: Why the AI Memory Chip Chain Is Back in Focus
$SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) SK Hynix raised about US$26.5bn in its Nasdaq ADR debut, putting the AI memory chip chain back in focus.The key point is not just another chip listing. It ref...
Memory Stocks Are Rolling Over. Now What? - M
According to sources, David Tepper's Appaloosa Management was up 32% in the first half of 2026
Here's the latest on what he's holding:• Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US) (15.16%)• Micron Technology $Micron Tech(MU.US) (9.48%)• Alphabet $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) (8.38%)• Uber $Uber Tech(UBER.US) (7.68%)• Taiwan Semiconductor $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) (7.56%)• Alibaba $Alibaba(BABA.US) (7.33%)• iShares South Korea ETF $EWY (4.98%)• Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) (4.21%)• Corning $Corning(GLW.US) (2.59%)• Lam Research $Lam Research(LRCX.US) (1.38%)• Baidu $Baidu(BIDU.US) (1.30%)• L3Harris $L3Harris Tech(LHX.US) (1.15%)• ASML $ASML(ASML.US) (1.10%)• Ball Corp $Ball(BALL.US) (0.83%)• AMD $AMD(AMD.US) (0.76%)This is Appaloosa's top 15 out of 31 total positions, representing a $5.93B portfolio as of Q1 2026 - F
$Lam Research(LRCX.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) $ASML(ASML.US) $TMC the Metals(TMC.US) - All of them look similar with exceptional candles.
In other words, we do see a good rotation in $SMH & $SOXX. Let's ride the trend. - N
Our local market finally fell following consecutive days of gains, but managed to recover slightly at the close. Reits remain relatively stable for now, but I expect prices to fall if and when the FED announces rate hikes eventually. Banks cooled off a little but are still in the midst of a bullish run.
[Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Micron Soars as Apple SinksTwo memory stories, opposite directions. Micron printed a record quarter and ripped ~15% after hours, lifting the whole chip complex over 3%. Meanwhile Apple had its worst day in over a year, down 6%,...
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easy way, buy a little bit at every 5% drop. The safer way is to buy until seeing the Bullish Reversal Candlestick Patterns
The stocks have been rising for so long. This is just a normal pullback. Be cool, wait patiently and buy low. The Vix is not at the peak yet
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This is the time not to panic if youre holding chinese Internet companies. Hold on for the long term. Another lesson learned is that don't use leverage to trade. Only invest/trade with the money that youre comfortable to lose 100%.
[Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Micron Soars as Apple SinksTwo memory stories, opposite directions. Micron printed a record quarter and ripped ~15% after hours, lifting the whole chip complex over 3%. Meanwhile Apple had its worst day in over a year, down 6%,...