LRCX 2X Long ETF

Midterm AI scare lingers

There’s no single clean thread — the market is still digesting last week’s midterm-driven AI data-center scare, a hot jobs print that keeps the Fed on a hiking path, a Friday tech bounce that only partially repaired Thursday’s damage, and a handful of single-stock catalysts that will set the tone into a busy earnings week. Don’t force a grand thesis; trade the catalysts and watch the narrative risk.

Macro / Narrative Risk: Midterms + Jobs → AI Infra Overhang

Democrats’ midterm sweep (House, Senate, key governorships including Texas) has crystallised a clear political risk to the AI data-center buildout. Voters backed dozens of local measures limiting new centers; Texas (roughly a quarter of planned U.S. capacity) now has a governor-elect who campaigned on a moratorium. UBS and others have flagged that ~30% of expected 2028 additions could face delays. Thursday’s tape was the market pricing that in real time: solana:5XqMbyZbtse5UQUzgrYMpeWLWLR6BWFqUm5H3VAWpump -12%, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) -9%, $AMD(AMD.US) -17%, $Micron Tech(MU.US) and $Sandisk(SNDK.US) double-digit drops, Nasdaq into correction territory and the worst single-day value destruction in the AI trade’s history. Friday saw a partial rebound ($NVIDIA(NVDA.US) +2.8%, $Micron Tech(MU.US) +5%, $AMD(AMD.US) double-digit) as dip-buyers stepped in, but the political overhang remains the dominant multi-week risk for anything tied to power, land, or permits.

Layer on the October jobs print: +165k vs ~65-70k expected, unemployment 4.1%. December hike odds jumped to ~78%. The Fed held at 3.75-4% in late October (with dissents for a hike); Chair Warsh’s tone plus this data keep the bias firmly hawkish. Strong labor + political friction on the biggest growth driver is not a clean “soft landing” setup. FinTwit narrative is clear: the easy permitting era is over; some capacity will migrate overseas or get delayed. One counter-narrative already circulating is that local/edge AI and overseas builds (SE Asia, LatAm) can offset U.S. friction — watch that story for relative strength in non-U.S. memory and networking names.

Earnings & Single-Stock Catalysts

$Airbnb(ABNB.US) delivered the cleanest positive print of the week. Q3 revenue +19% to $4.87B (fastest growth in 3+ years), EPS $3.16 vs $2.85, nights/seats +16%, GBV +21%. Raised FY26 revenue growth to high-teens, guided Q4 above Street, and authorized a fresh $12B buyback on top of remaining authorization. Stock ripped ~12%. Management is leaning into AI as a travel-agent tailwind rather than a threat. Classic “beat + raise + capital return” setup that works for multi-day swings if the broader tape cooperates.

$CloudFlare(NET.US) also stood out. Q3 revenue +39% to $782.5M (fastest in nearly four years), beat and raise on full-year revenue and EPS. Shares jumped double-digits after hours even as the broader AI complex sold off. Connectivity cloud and security continue to benefit from AI traffic and agentic workloads — a relative winner in the software complex.

$Lam Research(LRCX.US) announced a $25B buyback authorization (more than it has spent since mid-2020) plus dividend. Came after a brutal Thursday drop and helped support the Friday chip bounce. Capital-return signal from a key equipment name when the market is questioning the duration of the AI capex cycle.

Software was mixed. $Atlassian(TEAM.US) beat on revenue and EPS with solid cloud growth and RPO +44%, yet still traded heavy — the market is punishing anything that doesn’t fully rewrite the “AI loser or neutral” narrative. Cyber and identity remain the cleaner software pockets as agent proliferation expands the attack surface.

Looking Ahead – This Week’s Card

Dense AI-infrastructure stretch: $Coreweave(CRWV.US) (CoreWeave) Tuesday, $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) and $Cisco(CSCO.US) later in the week, plus $Nebius(NBIS.US) and others. Options are pricing large moves in several of these. $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) in particular will be watched for DRAM/HBM and advanced packaging commentary after the memory complex’s violent swings. Any sign that hyperscaler demand is intact (or that LTA structures are locking in pricing) can stabilize the sector; any further caution on power or timing will feed the regulatory narrative.

Positioning Notes for Swing Traders

∙Highest-conviction multi-day setups right now sit in names with fresh, clean catalysts ($Airbnb(ABNB.US) capital return + guide, $CloudFlare(NET.US) raise) rather than pure AI beta.

∙The midterm/data-center story is still live on FinTwit and can re-rate the entire infra complex lower on any new headline (state action, protest, OpenAI/Meta response). Size accordingly and use the Friday bounce levels as reference.

∙Memory and optics remain high-beta to both the shortage narrative and the political risk; expect continued volatility until the next data points (earnings, capacity updates).

∙Strong jobs + sticky inflation bias keeps the Fed in play; any further yield spike is a headwind for duration-sensitive growth.

NFA / DYOR. This is a summary of publicly reported catalysts and market commentary for informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Do your own research and manage risk.

If anyone is curious about the pace of deterioration AI infrastructure names are seeing from their 52 week high. Here is a table of companies in the WFE, accelerators, neoclouds, optical, and memory market.

Best performer? Nvidia, -25%

Worst performer? Applied Optoelectronics, -80%

This is a non-exhaustive list.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Dell Tech(DELL.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US)

Samsung's 'Project Kairos' plans a new 2nm/4nm fab at its Giheung, South Korea campus, the birthplace of its memory chip business, at an estimated cost of about US$19.23 billion, media report, turning the site into an advanced foundry and packaging hub.

Named after the Greek god of opportunity, Kairos includes a 4-phase fab, a utility building and a substation, and will mainly make logic base dies for HBM4/HBM4E, with 2nm aimed at HBM5. EUV tools could cost $6.15–7.69 billion; with other equipment and cleanroom work the total tops $15.38 billion, and could reach $23.08 billion including converting Line 6 to advanced packaging. $ASML(ASML.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Tokyo Electron(TOELY.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) #Samsung #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

Winbond Electronics, Taiwan’s 2nd biggest DRAM maker, will spend NT$73.16 billion (US$2.3B) to build a new 12-inch memory chip fab in Kaohsiung, south Taiwan, media report. Groundbreaking will be Dec. 29., targeting 2029 production.

(Note: It’s called Module B, set beside Module A (up and running), but it’s a full wafer fab building – the two modules share some infrastructure: utility buildings, wastewater treatment, power substations, etc.)

Winbond President Chen Pei-ming forecast growth to continue in the 4th quarter on continued strong AI-related demand, but noted consumer-focused firms (PCs, electronics) slowed memory purchases after loading up on inventory in prior quarters. He said memory chip supplies will remain tight into 2027 and 2028 driven by AI, automotive, infrastructure. $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Tokyo Electron(TOELY.US) #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

Samsung Electronics raised its 2026 semiconductor capex plan to ₩76.8 trillion won (US$53 billion), from ₩47.5 trillion last year ($33.4 billion) amid strong AI-related demand expected to continue for years, executives said during its 3rd quarter conference. ₩52.8T has already been spent thru Q3.

-2027 capex to rise further versus 2026

-New fabs and advanced packaging plants are being planned for the US and Korea to meet strong AI demand

Taylor, Texas site capex set to rise – new fab building under review

-Taylor fab to start operations in 2027

-Equipment move-in going on now $ASML(ASML.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) $Tokyo Electron(TOELY.US) #Texas #Taylor #Semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt