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$Oracle(ORCL.US)this database giant is about to wake up. Operating cf, revenue and key metrics are positive in my assessment. Investors need to be patient as everything else has run up beyond fair valuations. Capex is a necessary evil for now.
Breaking: Michael Burry says the AI boom is running on one giant loop and time is running out
Here's his breakdown:1. Burry shared a report from Wall Street lender Ares tracking $573B of AI financing from the last 12 months2. All of it runs through just 8 companies: Meta, Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI, Anthropic, Broadcom and Nvidia3. They lend to each other, guarantee each other's debt and buy from each other, so one company's loan is backed by another company's promise to keep spending4. Every deal depends on one thing: AI spending never slowing down5. If AI revenue disappoints for even one season, the guarantees could all get called at once, right when the companies backing them are at their weakest6. Burry says it's the same circular financing that turned the 2000 telecom fiber boom into a bustBurry claims the stock market in the first stage of grief and the crash is soon$Microsoft(MSFT.US)
Context: Microsoft needs to work harder to make its AI standout among the crowded AI names. Satya Nadella managed to transform Microsoft from just being a software company to the 2nd largest cloud computing company. However Microsoft AI products were not well received by the consumer. Copilot seemed like a product that Microsoft forced onto others by incorporating it in Windows and Microsoft think that Copilot can be a jack of all trades but really became master of none. Despite having a head start with OpenAI, Microsoft could not fulfill OpenAI's tremendous processing power. On 27 Apr 2026, Microsoft renegotiated OpenAi to end Microsoft exclusivity to OpenAI. OpenAI is now free to find cloud compute platform in Microsoft rivals like Amazon and Oracle. OpenAI is also allowed to sell its services to Microsoft rivals.
My trade: sell Microsoft for now.
Takeaway: Still Satya Nadella is a smart guy that has proven that it can adapt to changes, he must prove it again.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)
$Oracle(ORCL.US)
POST for 5/10/26
1️⃣ After my last purchase in early Sept, the stock continued to benefit from strong AI and cloud infrastructure demand, with investors focusing on OCRL’s expanding backlog, large cloud contracts and its positioning as key AI infrastructure provider. Shares advanced meaningfully pushing valuation expectations higher.
2️⃣ I added another position because ORCL’s AI driven story remains intact despite broader market volatility. The pullback from recent highs offered a more attractive entry point while demand for cloud capacity and AI workloads appears stronger than expected.
3️⃣ Looking ahead, the key focus will be execution: converting backlog into revenue, expanding cloud margins, and securing additional AI related contracts. If enterprise AI spending remains robust, ORCL cloud continue outperforming, though its elevated valuation may create short term volatility around earnings and guidance.
$Oracle(ORCL.US)
Expert takeaways on optics:
> 350–400mW high-power CW laser 2027 shipment target revised upward from 16 million to 25 million units. Unconstrained market demand stands at roughly 60 million units, yet capacity acts as the hard constraint.> OCS current shipments are dominated by Google and Oracle’s 300port demand.> OCS ASP declined with product volume ramp up: early samples were $14k–$15k, while volume pricing now lands at $10k–$11k.> Two CPO light source options are under evaluation for next-gen NVIDIA Feynman architecture: boosting laser power to ~800mW, or retaining 350–400mW power while adopting 16-wavelength DWDM.> Substrate suppliers for high-power lasers are primarily AXT and Sumitomo, with JX Metal of Japan as the secondary option. High-power lasers currently use 4-inch wafers; 6-inch wafer adoption is scheduled for 2028.$Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $AXT(AXTI.US)$Oracle(ORCL.US)
1️⃣ After my last position, I have added another position as shown below, the stock experienced volatility as investors digested its huge AI infra spending and risking debt load. However, the company delivered strong FY27 Q1 results: revenue grew 30%, cloud revenue surged 62% and cloud infra revenue jumped 121%, supported by massive AI demand and a record backlog of signed contracts.
2️⃣ Because the share price had softened despite continued evidence that ORCL’s AI cloud business is scaling rapidly. The combination of accelerating cloud growth, a USD664B PRO backlog and management’s expectation for continued strong revenue expansion suggests the long term AI thesis remains intact.
3️⃣ Outlook for next quarter : I remain cautiously constructive. If ORCL continues converting its enormous AI backlog into revenue while adding new data Center capacity, sentiment could improve further. The key risks are execution, capital spending, and debt levels, but strong cloud demand and guidance for 30% to 34% revenue growth support a generally bullish view into the next qtr.
$Oracle(ORCL.US)
📢 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗡: $Oracle(ORCL.US) ORACLE’s Wisconsin AI Data Center Faces Power Delay Risk, Aterio Sees Meaningful Load Unlikely Before Mid-2028
👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:➤ 𝗔𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗼 sees risk to Oracle’s second-half 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟳 delivery guidance.➤ Meaningful power load is considered unlikely before 𝗺𝗶𝗱-𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟴.➤ Grid connection, rather than construction, is identified as the key constraint.➤ Wisconsin regulators restarted the transmission approval process after extensive project changes.➤ Base case estimates partial power around 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟳.➤ Base case puts full 𝟭.𝟯 𝗚𝗪 capacity around October 2028.➤ Extended review could push partial power to 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟴.➤ Extended scenario puts full capacity around 𝗔𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗹 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟵.➤ Next regulatory milestone is expected around 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟵, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲.👉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀:➤ Power delays could postpone when Oracle can deploy substantial new 𝗔𝗜 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝘂𝘁𝗲.➤ Highlights electricity infrastructure as a critical bottleneck for hyperscale AI expansion.➤ Delayed capacity could shift the timing of Oracle’s planned infrastructure availability.➤ The 𝟭.𝟯 𝗚𝗪 project illustrates AI data centers’ growing grid requirements.👉 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁:𝗝𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝘆𝗲𝘀, Head of Data Center Research, Aterio:“Construction at Port Washington is progressing steadily, but power delivery depends on a regulatory process that has restarted. Based on the public record, we see a meaningful risk that load arrives later than Oracle’s current guidance.”> Managed agents means long running tasks and stateful sessions, which is metered compute rather than seat licences.
> OpenAI does not own data centres. Whoever hosts those sessions collects the bill.
> ORCL closed 132.60 on Monday, down 3.3 percent, second worst of the group, and it sits on the collecting side of that trade.
Note: bought back a third of what I sold in August. Adding again only if it holds 130 through the keynote.
Breaking: Michael Burry says the AI bubble is bursting sooner than later
He has disclosed his updated positions:• Covered Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) short• Covered Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) short• Covered Caterpillar $Caterpillar(CAT.US) short• Covered Semiconductor ETF $SOXX short• Covered Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) short• Covered Oracle $Oracle(ORCL.US) short• Rolled Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) into a bigger position• Rolled QQQ into a bigger Nasdaq $NDX position• Covered CoreWeave $Coreweave(CRWV.US) short• Opened a new short on MetLife $MetLife(MET.US)• Added to Sprouts Farmers Market $Sprouts Farmers(SFM.US)• Added to QXO $QXO(QXO.US)Burry said the move is "motivated by research this past weekend that leads me to believe the bubble in AI may burst sooner than later" per his SubstackBreaking: Michael Burry drops a new warning on the AI financing web
Here's what he's flagging:1. Ares Management mapped $573B across 26 financings tying together Meta, Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Nvidia, OpenAI and Anthropic2. Every guarantee and backstop in the web assumes AI spending keeps growing. No slowdown allowed3. If revenue disappoints, pressure spreads through connected deals and triggers guarantees right when guarantors are weakest4. US and Bermuda insurers are sitting on ~$10T in float backing this buildout5. Nvidia's H100 chips lost 51% of their value in 3 years, per Ares dataBurry says Wall Street is finally catching up to his view
