gedebe

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Context: Nvidia is partnering with Microsoft to beat Apple in high end notebook space. Instead of GPU, Nvidia is building a CPU that directly competes with Intel and AMD. Microsoft claims that the Nvidia CPU that is installed in Microsoft branded laptops called$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US) Surface Ultra can run twice as fast as Apple Macbook Pro M5 yet still cheaper by US$400. The Ultra cost US$2599.

My trade: Microsoft Surface laptop is only contributing to 2% of Microsoft revenue so I am neutral on it's stock price

Takeaway: Microsoft should consider competing with Apple Macbook Neo which recently was hiked to US$699. They should consider making AI notebooks affordable to the masses. The Ultra pricing is out of reach for many people especially the students.

$Webull(BULL.US)

Context: Webull is being scrutinized by US regulators for it's link to Chinese government. Out of sudden, the US regulator raised the red flag claiming Webull is under the influence of Chinese Communist Party but they did not offered any evidence. Webull claimed that they are not even contacted to defend itself and this claim is unfair to them. Futu, another popular Chinese online which is also listed in Nasdap was fined US$271 million by Chinese regulators but this was totally a different matter, Futu was caught for allowing mainland China to trade overseas stock when they are not allowed to.

My trade: sell Webull. Webull shares fell 17% when this news was announced on Oct 7th.

Takeway: Webull and Futu are profitable fintech companies with creative financial service offerings but the claim by US regulators will drag its share price, stay away until a clearer picture emerges on their ties to CCP.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Context: Microsoft needs to work harder to make its AI standout among the crowded AI names. Satya Nadella managed to transform Microsoft from just being a software company to the 2nd largest cloud computing company. However Microsoft AI products were not well received by the consumer. Copilot seemed like a product that Microsoft forced onto others by incorporating it in Windows and Microsoft think that Copilot can be a jack of all trades but really became master of none. Despite having a head start with OpenAI, Microsoft could not fulfill OpenAI's tremendous processing power. On 27 Apr 2026, Microsoft renegotiated OpenAi to end Microsoft exclusivity to OpenAI. OpenAI is now free to find cloud compute platform in Microsoft rivals like Amazon and Oracle. OpenAI is also allowed to sell its services to Microsoft rivals.

My trade: sell Microsoft for now.

Takeaway: Still Satya Nadella is a smart guy that has proven that it can adapt to changes, he must prove it again.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Context: Netflix subscribers are not expanding as expected this was admitted by Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos recently. In the 2nd quarter results, although revenue went up 13% YOY to US$12.5 billion but crack already appeared, viewing hours just increase a mere 2% and top 10 originals viewership fell 4%. YTD, this stock already fell 25%!

My trade: sell Netflix

Takeaway: The Internet is flooded with more content creators than ever and most of them are free. Take for example the influx of Chinese micro dramas which only last 1-2 minutes have even inspired the western counterpart to copy them, 1st time I ever heard that the west copy the east in film making! Those content creator might not be as profitable as Netflix but if they manage to attract audiences this itself already dent Netflix market share$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US).

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Context: Nvidia wants to use it's GPU for loan collateral . Jensen Huang thinks so highly of his product that he feels his GPU can last as long as 10 years. Electronic product usually depreciate fast and investing in it force the investor to run against time as they need to extract as much profit as possible from it before the product become obsolete. Electronic products productive life span typically are just 3-4 years. Jensen Huang claims that by using GPU as collateral, he can solve the problem of circular financing where Nvidia is investing in company that is buying it's product.

My trade: sell Nvidia

Takeaway: No electronics product can last until 10 years before a better version replaces it, couple with the recent historic high of Nvidia shares on last Friday closing, the signal is dump Nvidia.$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

for the task to buy $3000 on any mutual fund to get $10, which fund is the safest to buy?

$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)Context: Netflix is falling because Youtube is eating it's lunch. Since walking away from the merger with Warner Bros. Discovery 7 months ago, the share rose 10.4% but it has been on the downtrend ever since. Youtube is proving more popular as it's viewership was growing 14.2% in this July versus Netflix which shrunk by 7.8%. This has resulted in major Investment house like HSBC, and Well Fargo downgrading this stock.

My trade: sell

Takeaway: Netflix has endured 2 major falls, in 2011 72% drop and in 2008 37% drop and each time it came back stronger. Coming back this time around looks harder as it need to fight with Youtube which is offering mostly free content. Can Netflix fight back, let's continue watching Netflix!

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Context: despite being the most valuable company in this world, the valuation of Nvidia is dropping. The forward PE is now just only 17x compare to AMD which is 40x. The low valuation is due to:

1. More in house GPU being developed by the like of Meta and Alphabet. Both companies has successfully launched their own AI chips.

2. The rising cost of memory chip is squeezing Nvidia profit margin by more than 3%.

My trade: observe for any sign of deteriorating profit before selling

Takeaway: Jensen Huang claim that this Nvidia is "incredibly misunderstood" but we prefer Nvidia earnings report to clear this misunderstanding. $Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Intel(INTC.US)

Context: Intel stock is trending higher and it has been shedding some of it's unwanted baggage:

1. Management layer has been reduced to 6 from 12

2. 250 vice presidents have been cut, remaining only 200

3. The workforce has been shrunk to 39,700 and compensation to attrition has fallen 89% to $161 million.

However, the foundry business is still losing billons each quarters.

My trade: I am still bullish on Intel, having confident CEO Lip-Bu Tan has the discipline to bring Intel to another level.

Takeaway: Intel foundry business will need drastic improvement in both technology breakthrough and customers onboarding$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Intel(INTC.US)

context: There are rumor that Sk Hynix going to setup a manufacturing facility in US. Though this will definitely please Trump who is expecting Seoul to fulfill it US$350 billion pledge to invest in US but this does not sit well with the Koreans who view this as selling their country secret in producing High Bandwidth Memory to US. Currently Sk Hynix controls 50% of HBM global production and the US is not a cheap place to set up a manufacturing plant. A good example is TSMC who set up a plant in Arizona just to encounter not just cost overrun from US$12 billion to US$20 billion but also a clashing work culture where the US is more laid back compared to Asians. TSMC estimated that the cost of manufacturing in the US is 2x more expensive than in Taiwan.

My trade: I am still keeping my finger crossed that this deal can go through and Intel is still a good buy

Takeaway: Seoul will need to keep a balance between following the people wish or pleasing Trump in hope of lower US trade tariff.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Intel(INTC.US)

Context: Intel was once the most dominant CPU maker. On Aug 2020, right before dot-com bubble, Intel market valuation stand at US$509 billion and it share was at US$74.88, the highest at that time. Andy Grove was the CEO from 1987 - 1998 and popularized the phrase "Only The Paranoid Survive". But a series of missteps like ignoring Apple request to build a mobile CPU for them citing that the mobile CPU margin is only US$12-15 versus PC CPU margin at US$225, did not have the foresight that GPU will be more usable than CPU and investing too little into it's fab and relying too much on contracted foundry and making them more successful than them, TSMC should thank Intel on this.

My trade: I am still buying on Intel because the above and Intel has woken and is now tirelessly addressing all the shortcomings.

Takeaway: If only Intel listens and follows Andy Grove's advice of being paranoid at all times then they won't have to lick their wound right now. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Wilmar(F34.SG)

Context: During the last El Nino event in 2023-24, Wilmar oil palm production reduced only 1% but the stock fell from SG$3.66 to SG$3.10. The drop was mainly due to an investigation in China in which a palm oil trader cheated a Chinese state own enterprise for US$725 million; Wilmar subsidiary Yihai Kerry Arowana was implicated because they provided the storage where the oil palm was stored. There was another accusation that YKA did not clean up the cargo tankers that transported poisonous industrial chemical but use it to carry edible palm oil. YKA refuted both allegation. Wilmar has also claimed that for the coming El Nino season 2026-27, it will be impacted in palm oil production since up to 80% of their estate is in Kalimantan where long dry spell is expected.

My trade: bearish on Wilmar in 2027

My trade: The prediction of the coming super El Nino usually will drive up plantation stock since the dry spell will limit palm oil production but not all palm oil related stock are the same.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Wilmar(F34.SG)

Context: Wilmar has been accused of causing the haze that is coming from Indonesia. Wilmar has stated that as far back as 2015, it has established a "No Deforestation, No Peat, and No Exploitation" (NDPE) policy. Yet, the haze has never gone away and it has gone bad recently. At that time, Wilmar had also pressured Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK), a listed company in Malaysia by deploying suspend first policy. KLK does not have a zero-deforestation policy at that time and they are one of the sellers of palm oil to Wilmar and together with Wilmar both have large plantation estate in Indonesia. Wilmar has around 154,660 hectares of oil palm in Indonesia and Indonesia is more than half of all their global palm oil land bank.

My trade: bullish on Wilmar

Takeaway: Currently there is no evidence that Wilmar is responsible for the haze in Indonesia.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$PUBLIC FIN HOLD(00626.HK)

Context: After a almost 3 weeks of trading halt (I am shocked of the long trading halt as though this stock is no longer needed to be traded), finally the announcement by it's parent company to privatize at HK$2.50, this is a premium of 61.29% from last trading price. However if we take the book value of HK$7+ this offer price is way too cheap. Public bank Malaysia, the parent company, even declared that this offer is final and won't be revised.

My trade: buy for now then sell if the privatization fail

Takeaway: My prediction that Public Bank M'sia is not generous in giving concession to it's shareholder is accurate, they have ample liquidity but will be very careful when spending money, typical of old Chinese way of doing business$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$PUBLIC FIN HOLD(00626.HK)

Context: Public Financial Holdings Limited (HK) is rumored to be privatized by it's parent company, Public Bank Berhad in Malaysia. If we take the book value (BV) ratio at 1.0, the share price for privatization will be HK$6-9 per share but if there is a takeover the BV ratio will be 1.5. The current price before stock being halted is HK$1.55

My trade: trading is halted since 20 Aug pending announcement

Takeaway: However, for privatization, looking at the parent company Public Bank M'sia which is not that generous in giving dividend, I could say that using BV as the privatization benchmark is wishful thinking and the more realistic of takeover price will be HK$2 per share

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$PUBLIC FIN HOLD(00626.HK)

Context: I am going to talk about a not so popular HK stock, Public Finance Limited Bank which has the market capitalization of HK$2 billion. It is not listed as the top tier bank in Hong Kong. The parent company is Public Bank Berhad which listed in Malaysia and is the 3rd largest bank in that country. This bank offer finance with it's subsidiary Public Bank HK offering the depositing service$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US). The performances of this bank is not great:

2025: profit, HK$79.65 million

2024: loss, ~HK$999.39 million

2023: profit, HK$14.38 million

2022: profit, HK$328.70 million

2020: profit, HK$396.90 million

My trade: on 20th Aug, the share of this bank was halted and has yet to resume as of now

Takeaway: official announcement point to a major corporate exercise but unofficial information show that it will be privatised by it's parent company from Malaysia

$Netflix(NFLX.US)

context: Netflix was my wrong move. I bought Netflix share when seeing that they are going to introduce advertisement into their subscription plan and creating another source of revenue. They are expecting to deliver roughly US$3 billion for this FY. This is already an increase of 100% from the initial US$1.5 billion from previous year. Netflix is trying hard to earn from advert, the total active subscribers with advert are ~250 million and are showing encouraging number.

My Trade: trim Netflix shares

Takeaway: For now advertising is still a small slice of Netflix total full-year revenues at > US$50 billion.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

context: Nvidia earnings of US96 billion blew past analyst expectation by exceeding the target of US$92 billion. The share price jumps 8.7% and add US$442 bil, second-biggest gain of all time. Nvidia also proof that I was wrong in predicting that the share price will drop after the earnings reports where for the past 5 quarters, only 1 quarter caused the share price to go up on the day after the report: Q3 FY2026, Nov 19, $Netflix(NFLX.US)2025: rose 6%.

My trade: add Nvidia shares

Takeaway: past record does not determine future performance of stock

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)context: Nvidia is actively investing in AI related companies with the hope of strengthening the AI ecosystem. Below is just some of the investment:

1. Anthropic: US$10 billion, Jul 2026

2. Nebius: US$2 billion, Jan 2026

3. Iren: US$2.1 billion, 2026

4. Corning: US$3.2 billion, 2026

5. Marvell: US$2, 2026

While N$Netflix(NFLX.US)vidia have every right to do some when sitting on ~US$100 billion free cash flow as of FY2026, it is creating a circular financing that can cause an AI bubble.

My trade: Trim Nvidia shares

Takeaway: If Nvidia want to invest, investor would rather see the money goes to end users and infrastructure companies that is not related to IT like power generation and healthcare.

$ExxonMobil(XOM.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Context: Trump again thought that he will strangle Iran by imposing what he dubbed as mother of all economic sanction. Before the Iran, Iran's GDP was at $475.25 billion in 2024 then fell to $420–$460 in 2025. Inflation was high at 40-50%, it was during early 2026 that mass protests begin to erupt and caused 30+k civilians killed by Iran authorities. It was after this that Trump attacked Iran thinking that after killing it's top leaders, the civilians will take this opportunities to force a regime change. It did did not happen. There might be dissidents but it were not enough to take down Iran government and neither will the mother of all economic sanction force Iranian to topple their government.

My trade: maintain, wait and see

Takeaway: Economic sanction is nothing to Iranian who are willing to sacrifice themselves for the country and their belief.

Indonesia has been giving headache to Wilmar again. In May, they were accused of under invoicing as much as 50% by the government. Later Kalimantan faced with decreased rain fall in Kalimantan resulting in lower yield of palm oil. Kalimantan has 80% of Wilmar oil palm plantation. The short fall will benefit Indonesia palm oil competitor like Malaysia. However, revenue for 2026H1 was still good at US$38.6 billion and profit before tax was up 13% YOY amounting to US$1.06 billion.$Wilmar(F34.SG)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Sea just jumped 15% on Aug 11 because of a superb Q2 revenue which is US$7.79 billion, exceeding analyst expectation. It was a fantastic recovery from a disappointing Q4Y25 on Mar which make this stock sank by 23%. But looking ahead, Sea need to overcame fierce competition from PDD Holdings who is handling Temu and Pinduoduo ecommerce platform. They are aggressively selling goods directly from manufacture and offer free international shipping even for very low value item. But PDD share is also suffering with a drop of 17% YTD. Consumer will be cheering when they fight but their stock will suffer.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund's just got US$184.3 Billion richer driven mainly by technology stock. It held 1.28% stake worth US$62 billion in Nvidia, a 1.24% stake worth US$52 billion in Apple, a 1.17% stake worth US$50 billion in Alphabet, a 1.27% stake worth US$35 billion in Microsoft and a 1.7% stake worth US$34 billion in Taiwan's TSMC. This was their largest gain ever. Like wise, Singapore's Sovereign Fund's, Temasek just invested into Sk Hynix and Samsung after both of the stock having endure a bitter sell off since July. However Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund's do caution against having a 20% high of technology stocks in it's portfolio arguing that any economic volatility will easily erased all it's gain. Is technology stocks exposure too great in your portfolio, mine surely is and it due time to either cash out or diversify.

Nvidia has been spending big, investing in it's customers, below are just the notable one:

1. Intel: $5 billion on September 18, 2025

2. CoreWeave: $2 billion in January 2026

3. Marvell Technology: $2 billion on March 31, 2026.

With a massive free cash in Nvidia pocket, year 2025 at ~$43.21 billion and year to date at $62.56 billion, they surely can spend. On the surface it looks like Nvidia is trying to strengthen the AI ecosystem. Others argue that Nvidia is engaging in a circular economy where money is just changing within themselves and the only thing expanding is AI bubble but not the economy.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)