๐ข ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐: $Redwire(RDW.US) Redwire and EnduroSat Sign MOU to Strengthen European Space Infrastructure
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- H
๐ข ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐: Final Pair of $Redwire(RDW.US) Redwire ROSA Wings Launch to the ISS, Completing Historic Power Modernization Effort
- B
$Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) asked the Claude+Jev combo whether it's a good time to add more positions in 'Little Rocket'. Here are the answers:
Data is complete. RKLB at $64.57, down 4.79% (Friday close; US markets currently pre-market).
Verdict: Worth adding, but do it in tranches.
Revenue growth of 62%, all four loss metrics narrowing, and debt actually dropped by nearly 20%. The only yellow flag is operating cash flow of โ$84.08M (โ261.74%), but they just raised $1.06 billion, so this isn't an issue in the short term.
Operations are also delivering: the 96th successful Electron launch, Neutron's first full-flight contract, a $981 million NITE-STAR project with the U.S. Space Force, a Viasat small GEO satellite order, and a backlog of $2.36 billion (roughly 2.6x TTM revenue). Jev rates 'operational momentum' as improving, with 0.99 confidence.
So what caused the โ57% drop?
I originally thought it was due to the Iridium acquisition, but further checks showed otherwise. This deal was first reported on 2026-06-29, yet the stock had already fallen from its May high of $150.23 to $84.54 (โ43.7%) before that. On the day of the announcement, the stock actually rose 16% ($84.54 โ $98.01) โ the market initially bought into it.
2026-05-27 ย 150.23 ย Period High
2026-06-26 ย ย 84.54 ย Before Iridium First Report ย โ Already โ43.7%
2026-06-29 ย ย 98.01 ย First Report (+16%)
2026-07-24 ย ย 63.91
2026-08-13 ย ย 80.10
2026-09-18 ย ย 64.57 ย Latest
So the main decline phase was valuation compression prior to the deal, followed by high volatility across the sector. Friday's โ4.79% drop was also not company-specificโASTS was down 7%, RDW down 7%, and the entire space sector was falling.
Jev's classification of the 18 news items this time was truly split evenly: 6 bullish / 6 bearish / 4 neutral / 2 irrelevant, with 9 company-specific vs. 9 sector-wide. The key lies in the cross-analysisโ4 out of the 6 bearish items were sector-wide, while the remaining 2 merely described Friday's drop itself; conversely, 5 out of the 6 bullish items were company-specific. The judgment on 'whether the decline was driven by company-specific bad news' is noul 0.32, meaning: No.
Where does the Iridium deal stand now?
Jev has priced the deal risk at 1.68 (leaning towards 'High: Transformative relative to company size, financing or integration remains uncertain'), but confidence is only 0.52. Moreover, its 'financing uncertainty' has been factually overturnedโI pulled the original text:
- Financing locked on 9/15, confirmed fully financed on 9/16; the previous $3.6 billion bridge loan has been terminated (replaced by permanent financing, not a financing failure)
- Passed the first FCC hurdle on 9/17
- Iridium has announced a special shareholder meeting for voting
So what remains are not financing risks, but shareholder voting, subsequent regulatory approval, and integration risks.
To put things in perspective: IRDM's market cap is about $5 billion ($46.77 ร 106 million shares); the stated $8 billion is likely enterprise value (including net debt), not equity consideration. Iridium itself is profitable (TTM EPS 0.88), and consolidating it will materially improve RKLB.
Alright. Moving on. Action starts pre-market today: continue selling XtalPi $XTALPI(02228.HK) to buy 'Little Rocket'.
- H
$Redwire(RDW.US) | Jefferies ๐ถ๐ป๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ผ๐น๐ฑ on ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป, PT $๐ญ๐ฑ
- H
๐ TOP 10 WEEKLY ANALYST RATINGS:
$TAM $Unity Software(U.US) $Trade Desk(TTD.US) $Serve Robotics(SERV.US) $Circle(CRCL.US) $Astera Labs(ALAB.US) $Redwire(RDW.US) $Humana(HUM.US) $CLEH $AppLovin(APP.US) - H
๐ข ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ง ๐๐ก: Redwire's SpaceMD Signs SpaceX Starfall Mission for 2028 Microgravity Research - $Redwire(RDW.US) $SpaceX(SPCX.US)
๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐น๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐:โค ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ ๐ signed a mission contract for ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ซ'๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ณ๐ฎ๐น๐น spacecraft.โค Launch is planned for ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ด.โค Mission will carry up to ๐ฏ๐ฎ ๐ฃ๐๐-๐๐ข๐ซ pharmaceutical research units.โค SpaceMD plans a new ๐ฃ๐๐-๐๐ข๐ซ variant designed for Starfall.โค Platform supports pharmaceutical and biotechnology research in microgravity.โค ๐๐ถ๐ณ๐๐-๐ณ๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐ฃ๐๐-๐๐ข๐ซ systems have flown to the ISS since November 2023.โค Company has crystallized ๐ฐ๐ฑ unique compounds, including insulin and cancer-targeting molecules.โค ๐ญ๐ฎ additional PIL-BOX systems are scheduled for launch later this year.โค Financial terms of the SpaceX contract were not disclosed.๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ ๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐:โค Expands commercial access to microgravity pharmaceutical research.โค Strengthens Redwire's position in the growing space biotechnology market.โค Supports faster development of therapies through more frequent research missions.โค Deepens collaboration between Redwire and SpaceX in commercial space infrastructure.๐ ๐๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐:๐๐ผ๐ต๐ป ๐ฉ๐ฒ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฟ, CEO of SpaceMD:"For decades, Redwire has built and operated the infrastructure that has enabled critical progress in microgravity research. Now, by combining our flight-proven microgravity payloads, such as PIL-BOX, with SpaceX's innovative transportation capabilities, we're dramatically expanding our ability to serve customers, increase research cadence, and accelerate the creation of life-changing therapies." - H
๐ข ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ง ๐๐ก: U.S. Space Force Awards $๐ต๐ด๐ญ ๐ ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป Space Test & Training Contracts to 15 Companies - $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) $Redwire(RDW.US) $Firefly Aerospace(FLY.US) $L3Harris Tech(LHX.US) $ViaSat(VSAT.US)
๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐น๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐:โค U.S. Space Force awards contracts with a ceiling value of $๐ต๐ด๐ญ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป.โค ๐ญ๐ฑ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ป๐ถ๐ฒ๐ selected under a multiple-award IDIQ contract.โค Contract supports ๐๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐๐, ๐ฒ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป, and ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด capabilities.โค Work includes ๐๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฒ and ๐ด๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฑ-๐ฏ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ engineering activities.โค Performance is scheduled through ๐๐๐น๐ ๐ฎ๐ต, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฏ๐ฎ.โค ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐ผ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ were received through a competitive acquisition.โค No funds are obligated at the time of contract award.โค Major awardees include ๐๐ผ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ป, ๐๐ผ๐ฒ๐ถ๐ป๐ด, ๐๐ฏ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ถ๐, ๐ฅ๐ผ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฏ, ๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ณ๐น๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฒ, ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐ฒ, ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฉ๐ถ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ๐.๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ ๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐:โค Expands U.S. capabilities for ๐๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด and operational readiness.โค Creates long-term contracting opportunities across the ๐๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฒ and ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฒ sector.โค Positions participating companies to compete for future task orders through ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฏ๐ฎ.โค Highlights continued U.S. investment in next-generation ๐๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป๐ณ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ and national security. - C
SpaceX Joins the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 โ Can $4.3B in Forced Buying Save the Slide?
Recently, if you've been watching $SpaceX (SPCX.US), you're probably a little confused: the stock has been sliding for almost a month. On June 16 it hit an all-time high of $225.64, and now it's down ...
Rocket Lab Erased $57B. Plunge Overdone? - H
๐จ Space Stocks Are Getting Crushed
Some of the biggest space names are down 40%โ58% in just 1 month:$Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) $Planet Labs(PL.US) $Intuitive Machines(LUNR.US) $BlackSky Tech(BKSY.US) $Redwire(RDW.US) $Sidus Space(SIDU.US) $Firefly Aerospace(FLY.US) - P
Market is selling off all the SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US) proxies:> $Virgin Galactic(SPCE.US) -24%> $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) -12%> $Firefly Aerospace(FLY.US) -11%> $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) -9%> $Redwire(RDW.US) -9%Liquidity drain from the space proxies & huge capital flows into the market leader.Short-term buying opportunity for Rocket Lab imo while SpaceX finds its feet over the coming days and weeks.
Rocket Lab Erased $57B. Plunge Overdone?