$Celsius(CELH.US) -16% pre-mkt after reporting 2Q Revs and Adj EPS that missed WS estimates. CELH does not offer forward guidance.
- Revs $817.9M, +11% y/y, vs $872.6M est- Adj EPS 36c vs. 47c y/y and vs 41c est- North America revenue $790.7M, +11% y/vs $847.3M est- Intern’l revenue $27.2N, +9.7% y/y vs $25.3M est- Gross margin 48.1% vs. 51.5% y/y, vs 48.6% est- Adj Ebitda $184.2M vs $198.4M estEx-Rockstar, organic sales growth was just +2% vs. WS +9% est, as brand Celsius declines (-12%) were more than offset by Alani Nu growth (+22%). Mgmt offered little commentary to suggest a turnaround any time soon. “We delivered a double-digit increase in 2Q revenue, completed the Rockstar integration, and maintained gross margin near first-quarter levels despite a challenging commodity environment." With the $PepsiCo(PEP.US) distribution agreement to sell $Celsius(CELH.US) globally now 4 years old, further CELH distribution gains (c-store, gas stations) are likely limited. I believe $Doordash(DASH.US) with +20% long-term rev growth and +25% long-term eps growth at a 2026 P/E of 37x is a better bet than $Celsius(CELH.US) with at best +5% organic rev growth and a 2026 P/E of 16x.
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【Week 4 - Opened a new position in Celsius】
Celsius has been down over 50% from its ATHs while continuing to dominate the energy drink sector. Energy drink maker Alani Nu, which was acquired last April, helped fuel Celsius' overall growth, with pro forma revenue jumping 60% to $368 million. The company also saw $67 million in sales from its recently acquired Rockstar brand, another line of energy drinks. Revenue from the flagship Celsius brand, meanwhile, returned to growth, up 6%. Overall, company sales surged 138% to $782.6 million. Meanwhile, retail sales increased by 29.8%. Celsius brand retail sales were up 6%, while Alani Nu retail sales doubled. However investors are fearful due to compressed gross margins as well as slowing growth. This drove the stock lower, and right now it is only trading card about 21x earnings estimates which is rather attractive to start a new position. Now it is all about patience as the stock begins to recover. @Bridge Buzz SG
My Portfolio Health Check - G
$Celsius(CELH.US) +6% today on stronger than expected 1Q earnings, driven by distribution gains from recent acquisitions Alani Nu (targeted toward women) and Rockstar (targeted toward men). 2027 rev and eps ests appear to be turning positive, and the stock has never sold at such a cheap forward P/E (20x) or EV/Ebitda (14x) relative to long-term forward growth (rev +8%, EBITDA +10%, EPS +15%).