SPX Technologies

📢 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗡: U.S. Private Hiring Slows for Sixth Straight Week, ADP Data Shows - $QQQ $SPY $SPX

Wow what a follow through the market had. Right on the fourth day of the first rally from the lows. Between 4-7 days check. Price increase more than 1.5% to previous day. Check. Elevated volume. Check. Happened on the major indices especially SPX and Nasdaq. Check.

It’s still early of course and does not guarantee a bull but a bull market has not started without one. Take whatever spin you want from that.

Remember when I was saying last week the discount only lasts while stocks are available? Looks like many favourite stocks have been snapped up by eager buyers.

U.S. stocks rebounded (SPX +0.4%, NDX +0.8%) on strong $Microsoft(MSFT.US) cloud growth, reassuring investors that AI investments are paying off and no further escalation in hyper scaler Capex, outweighing inflation worries and a jump in 30-year treasury yields after the Fed held rates steady. $Meta Platforms(META.US) fell pre-market on lighter 3Q rev guidance. Investor focus remains on potential overspend on AI Capex and likely returns; S&P 500 FY’2026 EPS estimates +25% YoY to $346, equating to a 21.1x forward P/E (4.7% earnings yield) in line with 10-year treasury yields. Escalation in U.S.-Iran conflict continues. Caution advised on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining long-term earnings estimates, likely commoditization of autonomous ride-hailing, and a stretched valuation.

U.S. stocks rose pre-market Monday (SPX +0.4%, NDX +1.0%) as tech stocks rebounded ahead of this week’s Samsung and SK Hynix 2Q earnings, which will test the continuing viability of the AI trade. $Tesla(TSLA.US) recovered +1.3% pre-mkt after falling -7.5% Thursday and crushing Q2 deliveries (480K vs 406K est) amid surging 2Q gas prices as a result of the Iran conflict. Brent crude fell 1% to $71/bbl as Hormuz flows recovered. S&P 2026 EPS estimates have risen to $342 (+23% YoY), implying a 21.9x P/E and a 4.6% earnings yield, in line with 10-year treasury yields. I remain cautious on TSLA given likely commoditization of unsupervised autonomy in the coming year and a stretched valuation relative to forward earnings growth (6x PEG).

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) now has a 10ema on the daily

Source: Sunrise Trader

U.S. stocks retreated Friday (SPX -0.5%, NDX -1.2%) amid semiconductor selloffs and OpenAI delay concerns, while Korean chipmakers plunged. Brent crude fell by an additional 3.4% to $72.71, as the Strait of Hormuz reopened post-U.S.-Iran peace progress, flooding markets with supply and easing inflation fears. We believe equities will reclaim their highs with oil prices and long-term treasury yields falling and 2Q earnings starting in a few weeks. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen to $342 (+23% YoY), implying a 21.5x P/E and 4.6% earnings yield, offering a +28bp premium to 10yr TYs. We remain cautious on TSLA due to declining forward earnings ests, intense autonomy competition, and an extended valuation (2026 P/E 200x vs +35% long-term earnings growth)

U.S. stocks surged pre-market with SPX +0.7% and NDX +2.1%, driven by Micron’s ($Micron Tech(MU.US)) blowout Q3 earnings and strong Q4 guidance, sparking gains across all semiconductor stocks. Brent crude fell to $72/bbl, erasing all wartime gains as Hormuz reopened amid a U.S.-Iran peace deal and surging supplies. Traders rotated back into AI/tech and consumer discretionary names as inflation fears subsided while S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates rose to $342 (+23% YoY), which equates to a 2026 S&P 500 P/E of 21.9x, a forward earnings yield of 4.6%, and +20bp premium to 10yrTYs. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining earnings estimates, likely commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a seemingly extended valuation.

U.S. stocks rose pre-market (SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.6%) ahead of today’s Fed policy decision and new Fed Chair Warsh’s first press conference, with oil stabilizing at $79/bbl and 10-year yields dipping to 4.43%. $SpaceX(SPCX.US) rose again pre-mkt by +3.4% to $209, and is poised to overtake $Microsoft(MSFT.US) as the world’s 4th most valuable company. A more dovish outlook from falling oil prices and easing inflation is boosting AI/tech and consumer discretionary plays, while S&P 2026 EPS estimates climbed to $342. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) amid declining earnings forecasts, rising autonomous competition, and an extended P/E relative to future growth potential.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$S&P 500(.SPX.US)$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)$NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US)

The 3 U.S. indices (SPX, DJI, IXIC) rallied on Monday fuelled by the weekend news of a peace deal, which lowered the oil prices, and a continuation of the post-IPO momentum of SpaceX. The lower oil prices reduce the fear of global inflation, economic downturns & higher interest rates - the 3 things that equities investors hate. The good news reignited the risk-on mode, sparking a broad rally for the tech stocks. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)itself regained strength and ended 3.5% higher.

U.S. stocks surged pre-market (SPX +1.2%, NDX +2.1%) after the U.S. and Iran reached an interim agreement halting their war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching 60-day nuclear negotiations, with formal signing set for June 19 in Switzerland. Brent crude fell -4.9%, 10yr treasury yields declined, and longer duration AI/tech and beaten up consumer discretionary names rose as consumer confidence was poised to recover. I’ve argued for weeks that equities should reclaim their record highs as the Middle East conflict concludes, as oil prices retreat and employment growth slows. S&P 500 earnings have continued to rise during the Iran conflict, with 2026 EPS ests now at $342 +23% YoY reflecting increased AI investment. All eyes are on this week’s Fed meeting, which is Kevin Warsh’s first as Fed Chair.