LazyCat

LazyCat

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LazyCat
LazyCat
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LazyCat

The disruption to Telco by SpaceX is not a don't deal and the market is already selling down the Telcos. If the likelihood of spaceX succeeding is high or certain, this price movement is the clearest indication of how market expectations. If not, it's just a matter of selling on rumour to wash out the unsteady hands.

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Captain's Watch
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — SpaceX's $8B Spectrum Deal Sinks Telcos

SpaceX is paying about $8B for nationwide spectrum, and US telcos got repriced in one session: AT&T -9.8%, T-Mobile -13%. At home, the banks are bouncing after last week's 5% STI slide. Let's dig in 👇...

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LazyCat

What is certain now is that uncertainty rules. Even the "safe haven" Singapore is zapped by the banks sell off. What I see is the rapid sector rotation of funds, triggered by news that are not new but suitable as a trigger for rotation. We have seen DeepSeek, SaaSpocalypse, Citi OCBC downgrade, now the anthropic some. Tune out the noise and focus on your own thesis and objective.

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Captain's Watch
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — OpenAI's $20B Gap Hits AI Stocks

The FT reported OpenAI's annualized revenue is about $20B lower than thought, and the AI chain sold off: Oracle -5.5%, CoreWeave -7.8%, Nvidia -2.9%. At home, the STI closed -3.5% Thursday as all thre...

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LazyCat

$Lion-OSPL APAC Fin S(YLD.SG)

Context: YLD is an ETF that tracks the iEdge APAC Financial Dividend Plus Index, which targets 30 of the largest and most tradable APAC Financial companies, covering banking, insurance, investment services and specialty finance.

The ETF fell 2.03% today mainly due to the following:

1. The 3 SG banks sell downs were the dominant driver as they accounted for 23% of the portfolio and contributed to ~1.10% of the drop.

2. The second major source of weakness was from its Korea exposure which accounted for ~0.43% of the drop.

3. Thirdly, Japan was also hit. One of YLD's significant holding - Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group also fell 2.25% and it accounted for ~o.11% of the drag.

4. Next, the Australian financiala were also weak with NAB -0.78%, Westpac -1.64, ANZ -1.52% and Macquarie -0.22%. While these were negative contributors, the were far less damaging than the above.

Takeaway:

1. While YLD is supposed to be "APAC Financials", it behaves more like a concentrated basket of Singapore + Korean + Japanese + Australian banks where it's top 10 positions accounted ~60% of the portfolio holdings.

2. There appears to be a regional financial sector sell-off instead of just a specific country.

3. The decline today was amplified by the high weightage of the 3 SG banks which encountered a sharp sell off today.

My Trade: I am looking for opportunity to accumulate while maintaining a yield on cost above 5.5%. For ref, the current TTM yield is 5.08% for today's price of 1.498 and my trailing yield on cost is ~5.97%.

图片 1,共 1 张
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LazyCat

It seems that most focus on the bank selloff instead of registering a broad SG market weakness today. Almost all discussions focused on the impact of the Citi analyst downgrade but is this the cause or just the trigger for the sell down? The toppishness/high valuation of the banks have been shared for quite some time but those voices were rediculed by the bank bulls who shares their unwaivering conviction that banks will only go up. Sometimes, Mr Market is just waiting for an excuse at an opportune time to take profits and pass the bag. Such is a time for the baptism of fire for new investors. Good luck and may they emerge stronger after this.

SG Heat Map Updated:10/08/202619:38 Banks Oil & Gas -2.29% +1.87% TelecommunicatLong image
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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — OCBC Sell-Off Deepens

OCBC is down about 10% in two days after Citi's sell call, and DBS and UOB are sliding with it. Rates aren't helping: the US 10-year just touched 5.35%. Let's dig in 👇💬 Buying the bank dip in 10-share...

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LazyCat

The sell down of OCBC today is likely due to the Citi's downgrade from Neutral to Sell, setting a TP of SGD27.5. This is actually a prediction of where the stock could trade down to if their concerns of slowing growth ("flat Q3 earnings"), shrinking profit margins from net interest income play out. Sometimes, such are "sell the rumour" event before a catalyst - do note that this is a prediction and not a fact (which is to be proven with the actual result).

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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — SpaceX Eyes $40B Chip Loan

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at records again, and SpaceX is reportedly lining up US$40B of debt to buy Nvidia chips. Under the surface it was messier: Seagate sank -9.2% while nuclear power names ri...

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LazyCat
Featured

Plan: $SpaceX(SPCX.US) is reportedly seeking $40B (USD30B investment-grade debt, USD10B bank loans) led by Apollo and PIMCO to fund $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) AI chip purchases, targeting a 2027 close.

* SpaceX Impact : Non-dilutive debt financing avoids stock dilution and funds orbital AI data centers, though it adds significant leverage and fixed interest service obligations. ⚠️

* Nvidia Impact : Secures massive revenue growth and validates AI hardware demand beyond traditional cloud hyperscalers. 👍

* Bond Market: USD 30B corporate issuance creates temporary supply pressure, widening credit spreads and offering elevated yields to institutional lenders.

* Retail Investors: No direct access to private debt, but retail benefits (higher yield) via NVDA equity holdings and indirect bond ETF exposure (e.g., PIMCO funds).

** BUT **

This is an unconfirmed insider report initially broken by the Financial Times. Neither SpaceX, Nvidia, Apollo, nor PIMCO has officially confirmed the transaction. 👀 👂 🤔

SPACEX'S S $40 BILLION FINANCING PLAN: ESTIMATED IMPACTS SPACEX SHARE PRICE IMPALong image
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LazyCat

I'm not jumping onboard SPCX just because of it's jump fueled by Morgan Stanley's opinion and 300 TP. It has to prove it's profitability else it's another round of hyping up the market.

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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — SpaceX Jumps 7.6%

SpaceX ripped +7.6% after Morgan Stanley called it one of the cheapest ways to own space and AI, putting Musk back above $1 trillion. Nvidia closed at a record and dragged the Nasdaq to one too. The c...

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LazyCat

hmmm, seems like the lowering of the board lot size diminished the interest in UOB, with it falling while DBS and OCBC climbed.

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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Board Lots Shrink, SGX Slides

From today you can buy DBS, OCBC, UOB and SGX in lots of 10 instead of 100. SGX itself fell 7% on Friday with no announcement behind it. In the US, September added just 29,000 jobs, October hike odds ...

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LazyCat

$Lion-OSPL APAC Fin S(YLD.SG)

Context: With the US bond yield reaching record high with little sign of abating it's ascend, I have adjusted my accumulation levels for REITs downwards. While waiting for the levels to be reached, I have watched for opportunity to load up on financials.

My Trade: With the price of YLD pulling back, I have added to my position a day after it has gone XD.

Takeaway: Adjust your plan when circumstances change and there will always be opportunities to be found.

2026.10.0209:32:11Buy orders
Filled timeQtyPriceDirection
2026.10.02
09:32:11
01.531Buy
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LazyCat

today 2 STI components slid a flights of stairs and bruised many a unit holder - DFIRG -8.82% & -7.16%. Among them, SGX's fall is really painful to see, falling from 25.69 ATH since late Aug with 2 vertical drops on 14 Sep and today. There are no negative catalysts and it seems risk-off profit taking / positioning before NFP?

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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Micron's 2027 Is 75% Sold

Micron says more than 75% of its 2027 output is already committed, and memory names followed through overnight. The 10-year touched its highest since 2002 before pulling back. At home, SGX is down abo...

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LazyCat

It is actually considered good that Micron prices stayed flat I steady of getting dumped post earning despite good results and forward guidance. It shows that the high expectations were met.

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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Micron Beats Big, Stock Shrugs

Micron printed a record $54.2B quarter, guided to $61.5B, and the stock closed flat. A cooler PCE pushed October hike odds below a coin flip, but the 10-year still climbed above 5.2%. Let's dig in 👇💬 ...

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LazyCat
Featured

The bond market and stock market are sending starkly different signals, creating a dynamic environment for retail investors.

1. The Two-Speed Bond Market 🛣️

A softer August PCE inflation report hasn't stopped a major split in Treasury yields:

* Short-Term Bonds: Prices are rising (yielding under 4.87% on 2-year Treasuries) as traders lower the probability of near-term Fed rate hikes.

* Long-Term Bonds: Prices are falling (pushing 10-year yields over 5.27% and 30-year yields past 5.6%) as investors demand a higher term premium.

3 Reasons Long-Term Yields Stay High ⭐

* War-Driven Energy Costs: Brent crude topping $103/barrel keeps long-term inflation fears alive.

* Heavy Treasury Supply: Funding a ~$40T national deficit floods the market with new debt, pushing yields up to attract buyers.

* AI Debt Competition: Tech firms are issuing debt to build AI infrastructure, competing directly for global capital.

2. Why Big Tech Resists High Rates ⁉️

Unlike the rate-driven tech selloff of 2022, megacap giants (Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Apple) are holding up the broader market due to core structural strengths:

* 💰 Cash Havens & Net Interest Earners: With massive cash reserves exceeding total debt, giants like Apple and Microsoft actually earn higher yields on their corporate cash piles without relying on high-cost borrowing (according to Baron).

* 🤑 Extreme Profitability & AI CapEx: Driven by generative AI infrastructure demands, expected S&P 500 earnings growth sits near 32%—led heavily by chipmakers and hyperscalers with active, immediate monetization.

🤔 Investor Takeaway:

While high yields pressure traditional growth stocks and long-term bond funds, Big Tech today functions with structural strength. Expect divergence between self-funding megacaps and debt-heavy small-cap companies (especially those fueled on narrative rather than real earnings).

30-Year Yield Hits 5.61%, Most Since 2002
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LazyCat

William's comments ahead of the PCE signaled that fed is in a waiting and see stance for the immediate near term. Although acknowledging that further hike before year end, his comment against rushing the next decision lowered short-term rate hike probabilities.

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Captain's Watch
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — PCE Tests the Fed, Micron Tests the Memory Boom

Fed's Williams saw "no need for urgency" on the next hike, cutting October odds to a coin flip ahead of tonight's PCE. Then Micron reports before dawn Thursday, with Street targets from $1,100 to $2,0...

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LazyCat

Technical analysis for $Oiltek(HQU.SG)

* Current Trend: The stock is in a medium-term downtrend after peaking at SGD 2.685. It trades at SGD 1.350 (-4.26%), Price spiked following the Bursa listing news and is now hovering near recent support levels.

* Moving Averages (Bearish 🐻): Price sits below the 20-day MA (1.368) and 60-day MA (1.464), though above the short-term 5-day MA (1.302). Overhead trend resistance remains strong.

* Momentum Indicators ⛽: RSI is neutral at 45–52. The MACD shows a mild bullish crossover below zero, indicating potential for a short-term relief bounce rather than a full trend reversal.

* Key Levels 🗝️: Support at 1.302–1.320 SGD; Resistance at 1.368–1.464 SGD.

Takeaway: The stock is consolidating near support. Cautiously looking for a clear breakout above 1.368 SGD before considering entry

Oiltek(HQU.SG) Awaiting open 09/30 1.350 -0.060 C: 牙 -4.26% High LOW Open Prev.c
Oiltek(HQU.SG) Awaiting open 09/30 1.350 -0.060 C: 牙 -4.26% High LOW Open Prev.c
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LazyCat

A filing which warns that its own models could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity" is as wild as it can get! - so what's the point in investing in this? 🤔

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Captain's Watch
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Anthropic's IPO Filing Reveals a $42B Loss

Reuters got a first look at Anthropic's IPO prospectus: revenue up 12-fold, a $42 billion net loss, and a $2 trillion valuation target. Meanwhile Treasury yields hit fresh multi-decade highs and gold ...