I believe $Tesla(TSLA.US) is a great company with a unique opportunity in front of it to transform how we travel. But loving a company doesn’t mean you should love the stock. Many investors on X don’t get the basic investing concept that valuation matters — even for great companies. TSLA FY’26 P/E of 234x vs +45% forward eps growth (5.2x PEG) is rich by any standard.
5-year returns: $Tesla(TSLA.US) +43%, NDX +111%.What's on your mind?
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US stocks neared fresh highs pre-market Tuesday (SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.3%) as Brent crude fell 2% to $98/bbl and the 10-year yield dropped to 5.27%, easing inflation concerns. Equity gains are being driven by earnings and AI infrastructure spending, not multiple expansion. Chipmakers continued to rise after last week’s strong Micron strong results with $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) hitting a record high. $Tesla(TSLA.US) gained +0.7% to $380, extending two days of gains on last week’s strong 3Q deliveries. S&P 2026 EPS estimates of $366 (+32% YoY) imply a 21.2x P/E and 4.7% earnings yield, and remain inverted versus 10year treasuries. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) largely due to a stretched valuation, falling longer-term estimates, and continued commoditization of unsupervised autonomy.
- TTonc
NVIDIA Return Rate
Traded Value$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ’s setup last week looked more like a post-rally retest than a real breakdown. The MUSE-driven optimism around AI applications seems to be spreading back into hardware, which is helping the broader tech complex regain momentum.
I’m starting to see this as a better environment for chasing strength rather than waiting for another deep pullback. If the rotation from AI applications into hardware continues, QQQ could have more room to run.
For now, the key is whether this retest turns into another leg higher or just another failed breakout.
@Captain's Treasure
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - S
Nasdaq-100 Hits New Record on Tech Rally, 7x Long DLC Rises 7%; SpaceX Surges 7%
Wall Street rallied on Friday (2 October), as weaker-than-expected jobs data helped to ease concerns over elevated yields.The tech-heavy $NASDAQ-100(.NDX.US) surged 1% to a new record high. Amplifying...
WDC Up 6%, Micron Slips: Which Storage Wins? - G
$Tesla(TSLA.US) has now reported two consecutive very strong delivery numbers. On Friday, it reported 3Q delivs of 486.5K vs 462.0K consensus. That TSLA delivs were down just -2% YoY vs TSLA’s record 2025 3Q, when the $7,500 EV credit was expiring, says it all. This followed TSLA’s blowout 2Q, when it delivered 480K vehicles vs WS expectations of 406K.
Investors are now more focused on TSLA’s efforts to scale up unsupervised autonomy in front of competitors, where TSLA’s generalized FSD technology is clearly superior, but its scale up has fallen far short of management’s guidance (current guidance unsupervised autonomous miles compounding at 10%+ per week; prior guidance unsupervised autonomy with no safety drivers in 8-10 metro areas by 2025 year-end, and prior to that in markets addressing 50% of the U.S. population by 2025 year-end). Today TSLA unsupervised autonomy has been approved for use in six U.S. metros across Texas and Florida (Austin, Dallas, Houston in TX; Miami, Orlando, and Tampa in FL) with the San Francisco Bay Area on deck and Las Vegas approved for permit but still not live. Waymo has been authorized for public fully driverless rides in 15 U.S. metros, including Phoenix, the Bay Area, Los Angeles, San Diego, Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Atlanta, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Denver, Nashville, and Las Vegas. Waymo operates roughly 4,000+ driverless vehicles nationwide. Tesla had about 589 vehicles registered in Texas as fully autonomous (420 Model Ys and 169 Cybercabs) as of October 2.YTD TSLA -18% vs NDX +22%.Long image
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📢 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗡: U.S. Private Employers Add 90,000 Jobs in September as Hiring Rebounds - $QQQ $SPY
👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:➤ U.S. private employers added 𝟵𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬 jobs in September.➤ Hiring accelerated for the first time since 𝗠𝗮𝘆.➤ 𝗘𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 and health services led gains with 𝟱𝟱,𝟬𝟬𝟬 jobs.➤ Leisure and hospitality added 𝟮𝟮,𝟬𝟬𝟬 jobs.➤ Financial activities lost 𝟭𝟲,𝟬𝟬𝟬 jobs; professional services lost 𝟭𝟭,𝟬𝟬𝟬.➤ Goods-producing employers added 𝟯𝟭,𝟬𝟬𝟬 jobs; services added 𝟱𝟵,𝟬𝟬𝟬.➤ Median 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘆 increased 𝟯.𝟮% year over year.➤ Median 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗽𝗮𝘆 increased 𝟰.𝟳% year over year.➤ Job-changers saw 𝟰.𝟴% base-pay and 𝟳.𝟯% gross-pay growth.➤ August employment growth was revised to 𝟯𝟲,𝟬𝟬𝟬 from 𝟯𝟴,𝟬𝟬𝟬.👉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀:➤ September's rebound signals renewed momentum after a 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲-𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵 hiring slowdown.➤ Continued 𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 indicates wage pressures remain present.➤ Sector divergence shows hiring strength remains concentrated rather than broad-based.➤ Labor-market trends are closely watched for their implications for 𝗙𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 policy.👉 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁:𝗗𝗿. 𝗡𝗲𝗹𝗮 𝗥𝗶𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀𝗼𝗻, Chief Economist, ADP:"It's a strong report. After a three-month slowdown, job creation rebounded and pay growth remained solid." - C

FeaturedTreasury Yields Hit Their Highest Level in Over Two Decades: Why Didn’t the Fed’s Hike Stop Long Bonds from Falling?
The Fed can set what banks pay overnight, but it cannot decide what investors demand to lend for thirty years. With the 10-year at 5.24% and the 30-year at 5.56%, that repricing is already reaching mortgages, corporate borrowing and the valuations of companies whose profits are still years away.
- TTonc
NVIDIA Return Rate
Traded Value$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ gapped higher and broke to new highs last week. Even with negative headlines over the weekend, the overall trend stayed surprisingly resilient, and the index continued to absorb bad news.
I kept adding to my QQQ position through my regular DCA. Higher rates seem to be favoring the mega-cap M7 names again, while hardware stocks have started losing relative strength.
As long as leadership remains with the strongest cash-generating companies, I’m comfortable staying patient and accumulating the index instead of chasing weaker sectors.
@Captain's Treasure
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - A
$Direxion Semicon Bull 3X(SOXL.US)
Context:
Semiconductors are one of the areas I’m watching most closely as the market approaches another important week.
QQQ is near its previous all time high, while Micron earnings and major economic data could quickly influence sentiment toward technology and semiconductor stocks.
I also noticed institutional call activity in SOXL, which gives me another signal to monitor together with the actual price action.
My trade:
I’m continuing to hold my SOXL shares. My decision is not based on a single catalyst. I want to maintain exposure to semiconductor momentum while watching how the sector responds to Micron earnings and the upcoming economic data.
Since SOXL provides leveraged daily exposure to semiconductor stocks, I’m being more selective about adding rather than increasing my position simply because the market is strong.
Takeaway:
Holding SOXL has reminded me that being bullish does not mean I need to keep adding. With a leveraged ETF, patience, position sizing, and risk management matter just as much as getting the direction right.
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!

