Tonc

$Intel(INTC.US)INTC has fallen all the way back to where this rally started. I’m still hoping to get another entry around 60, but I’m also considering redirecting my regular Microsoft DCA into Intel instead.

The hardware correction probably isn’t over yet, but software hasn’t offered many exciting opportunities either. With AI spending still concentrated in infrastructure, Intel’s turnaround story is becoming more interesting to watch as the stock gives back its recent gains.

I’m not ready to chase the dip blindly, but I may start shifting my accumulation toward names where expectations have already come down. The challenge is figuring out whether this is a genuine opportunity or just the beginning of another leg lower.

@Captain's Treasure

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ printed a massive bearish weekly candle, reinforcing the idea that a deeper correction in AI hardware may finally be underway. Rising oil prices are adding another layer of pressure, while Treasury yields have started falling ahead of the broader selloff.

That combination is worrying. The market may be starting to price in a stagflation scenario, where an AI investment bust hits growth just as higher energy costs keep inflation elevated. Falling yields aren’t necessarily bullish if they reflect growing fears about the economic outlook.

This week feels especially important. The key question is whether QQQ can stabilize after the breakdown or whether the selling pressure will spread further across the market.

@Captain's Treasure

$Tesla(TSLA.US)I’ve been trying to guess what would trigger Tesla’s next move, and then Musk suddenly pulls a flying car out of nowhere. You have to give him credit for knowing how to keep the market entertained.

As usual, TSLA popped in premarket before giving back some of the gains, but the new narrative could still provide the spark for another short squeeze. With Tesla, the catalysts rarely arrive when you expect them to.

For now, I’m sticking with my regular DCA and treating this as a potential momentum catalyst. Whether the flying car becomes a real business is another question entirely.

@Captain's Treasure

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)The past few days have been brutal, with hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI prints triggering a broad market selloff. SPCX has given back most of its gains from the past few months, showing just how quickly sentiment can reverse when macro pressure takes over.

Fortunately, I sold most of my position during the previous rally, so I’m not taking the full hit on the way down. The one encouraging sign is that Treasury yields have started falling ahead of the broader market’s recovery.

For now, the key question is whether that drop in yields can provide some relief, or whether inflation fears will continue to dominate risk assets.

@Captain's Treasure

$Apple(AAPL.US)Apple’s resilience amid a hotter-than-expected CPI print isn’t particularly surprising. In a market where higher rates are putting pressure on tech valuations, investors still seem willing to pay a premium for stability and reliable cash flow.

The problem is that AAPL has already climbed to a level where adding more feels uncomfortable. The strength is reassuring, but chasing it here leaves little room for error if sentiment turns.

It’s an awkward spot to be in: the stock keeps proving its strength, yet the price makes it harder to justify increasing exposure.

@Captain's Treasure

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ made another new high last week before giving back some of its gains, while weakness spread across the hardware sector. The bigger concern is market breadth: fewer stocks are participating in the rally, even as the index remains near record highs.

That combination makes the next move particularly difficult to read. The headline index still looks strong, but underneath, the market feels increasingly fragile. We could see more rotation and sharp swings as investors decide whether to keep chasing the highs or start taking profits.

For now, I’m expecting a more choppy market where index strength alone may no longer tell the whole story.

@Captain's Treasure

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)Gemini 4 has been dragging its feet for half a month without much meaningful news, but Google’s stock has remained surprisingly resilient. The lack of a major catalyst hasn’t translated into much weakness, which says something about the market’s underlying confidence in the company.

At this point, GOOGL feels more like an index stabilizer than an exciting growth trade. There’s not much to chase right now, but at least it’s holding up while other parts of tech struggle to find direction.

@Captain's Treasure

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Microsoft’s strength hasn’t really surprised me. When Treasury yields start getting out of control, the market tends to make its preference pretty clear: cash flow matters, and Microsoft is exactly the kind of name that benefits from that rotation.

I’ve still been DCA-ing, but now I’m starting to struggle with where the exit point should be. Breaking the previous high doesn’t look particularly difficult from here, but the real question is whether to trim before earnings or just let the position run into the report.

Sometimes the hardest trade isn’t knowing when to buy—it’s deciding when to stop being patient.

@Captain's Treasure

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)SPCX has gone through a pretty aggressive short squeeze, with the stock moving up much faster than I expected. After such a sharp run, I’m starting to think about taking some profit rather than chasing the move higher.

For now, I’m looking at around 180 as the area where I’d consider trimming part of the position. I’m not necessarily changing my view on the story itself—I just want to lock in some gains after the momentum trade has played out.

The key question now is whether this move can turn into a sustainable trend or simply burn through the remaining short interest.

@Captain's Treasure

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ’s setup last week looked more like a post-rally retest than a real breakdown. The MUSE-driven optimism around AI applications seems to be spreading back into hardware, which is helping the broader tech complex regain momentum.

I’m starting to see this as a better environment for chasing strength rather than waiting for another deep pullback. If the rotation from AI applications into hardware continues, QQQ could have more room to run.

For now, the key is whether this retest turns into another leg higher or just another failed breakout.

@Captain's Treasure

$Tesla(TSLA.US)Tesla never really follows the usual script. The autonomous-driving rollout helped the stock recover from the previous selloff, but lately it has started digging another hole again.

The interesting question is what comes next. Will the market get another boost from the Tesla-SPCX combination, or will the next robotics headline become the catalyst for another move higher? With Tesla, there always seems to be another narrative waiting around the corner.

After this pullback, I think it may be time to start building a position again. The hard part with Tesla isn’t finding a story—it’s guessing which story the market will choose to trade next.

@Captain's Treasure

$Robinhood(HOOD.US)HOOD held up surprisingly well when rates were rising, barely pulling back despite the broader pressure. That relative strength was encouraging.

But yesterday, even with positive news, the stock opened higher and then sold off throughout the session. That kind of reaction is definitely discouraging, especially when the market refuses to reward a stock with good news.

I decided to trim part of my HOOD position. When the price action starts contradicting the narrative, I’d rather reduce some exposure and see whether the strength comes back.

@Captain's Treasure

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)SPCX had a pretty interesting day. Starship Flight 14 successfully launched and reached orbit for the first time, but the stock still sold off as Treasury yields spiked. Good news on the company side, but the macro backdrop clearly mattered more in the short term.

I decided to add a little more at this level. The launch itself was a meaningful milestone, so I’m willing to look past the short-term reaction and keep building the position gradually.

Sometimes even genuinely good news gets ignored when rates are moving hard. I’d rather focus on whether the underlying story keeps progressing than expect the stock to react immediately.

@Captain's Treasure

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ gapped higher and broke to new highs last week. Even with negative headlines over the weekend, the overall trend stayed surprisingly resilient, and the index continued to absorb bad news.

I kept adding to my QQQ position through my regular DCA. Higher rates seem to be favoring the mega-cap M7 names again, while hardware stocks have started losing relative strength.

As long as leadership remains with the strongest cash-generating companies, I’m comfortable staying patient and accumulating the index instead of chasing weaker sectors.

@Captain's Treasure

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)Google has been rejected around 360 several times now, and each attempt has ended with a sharp pullback. That level is starting to look like a meaningful ceiling rather than just another resistance.

I’m not buying here. The valuation still doesn’t feel attractive enough for me, so I’d rather wait for Gemini 4 to prove its execution or a much better entry around 250–300.

I’d rather miss the first rebound than force a trade. Patience is also a position.

@Captain's Treasure

$Intel(INTC.US)I was waiting to buy Intel around 60, expecting a deeper pullback. Instead, the stock bounced right off its long-term moving average and left the previous gap unfilled.

I didn’t add because my limit order never got hit. Looking back, I probably should have used my regular DCA instead of relying on one perfect price.

Trying to catch the exact bottom is usually harder than I think. Next time I’d rather scale in gradually than miss the move completely.

@Captain's Treasure

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ was extremely volatile on FOMC day, but the weekly candle finished much stronger than the intraday swings suggested. Despite the rate noise, buyers kept stepping in and the trend held up well.

I increased my QQQ DCA slightly this week. A strong weekly close gives me more confidence to add gradually instead of waiting for another perfect pullback.

As long as the index keeps absorbing bad news, I’m happy to stay patient and let consistent accumulation do the work.

@Captain's Treasure

$Apple(AAPL.US)

Apple is getting close to its previous high, and this feels like a reasonable place to trim some exposure. The market seems to have largely forgotten the headwind from higher interest rates, while expectations have quietly recovered.

I’m taking partial profits instead of waiting for a perfect top. Apple has been a solid defensive holding, but I don’t see much reason to keep adding capital to a slower-moving mega cap here.

The lesson is simple: great companies don’t always make great trades, and reducing into strength is often easier than chasing the next breakout.

@Captain's Treasure

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)NVIDIA played out exactly as expected—another quiet, range-bound week despite all the attention around AI. The stock feels more like a mature blue chip than a momentum leader.

Jensen has started raising long-term expectations again, trying to keep confidence high. But the market seems much less responsive than before. After the Marvell episode, where optimism helped fuel a rally before a sharp reversal, investors are treating management commentary with more skepticism.

For now, words matter less than execution. The next real move will probably need earnings, not speeches.

@Captain's Treasure

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)The past week has been filled with negative headlines, and sentiment around high-beta growth names is still fragile. Even so, both Tesla and SPCX have held up much better than I expected instead of breaking lower.

I added to my SPCX position when it reclaimed the 20-day moving average. It’s still a small position, but I’m treating that level as a sign that buyers are willing to defend the trend despite the constant bad news.

My takeaway is simple: price matters more than headlines. If a stock can resist selling pressure during weak sentiment, it usually deserves more attention than the news flow itself.

@Captain's Treasure

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ has gone nowhere for three straight weeks, swinging up and down without making real progress. The optimism around GPT-6 faded quickly, hardware names slipped back into weakness, and geopolitical headlines only made sentiment worse. Under the surface, both price strength and market breadth have deteriorated noticeably.

I’m still continuing my regular DCA into QQQ. Despite how painful many individual stocks feel, the index itself hasn’t actually broken down. It still looks more like a market stuck in disagreement than one entering a clear bearish trend.

This week means that weak breadth doesn’t always mean an immediate index collapse. As long as the larger structure holds, I’d rather accumulate patiently than let short-term headlines change a long-term plan.

@Captain's Treasure