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TCEHY: Time to Ditch the Boomer Vibe, Turn Up the Heat on AI!---

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0318 | Dolphin Research Watchlist: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) The Fed kicked off its two-day FOMC meeting on Mar. 17 local time. The market broadly expects the policy rate to stay at 3.50%–3.75%.However, sticky inflation (PPI at 2.9%) and a Middle East-driven oil spike (WTI above $100) are tightening expectations for 2026 cuts. Investors are dialing back the number of cuts priced in. If the dot plot due on the 18th indicates just one cut in 2026—or none at all...

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MiniMax debuts M2.7, shows a 'self-evolving' model; META trims 'metaverse' again | Daily News Recap

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Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of the FY2025 earnings call for $Tencent Music(TME.US) and $TME-SW(01698.HK). For our earnings take, see 'Tencent Music: Soda Music's big push — are the easy days over?'I. Key takeaways1) Shareholder returns: announced a FY2025 cash dividend of $0.24 per ADS, with total payout approx. $368mn, a sharp increase vs. last year. The buyback program still has sizable remaining authorization and will continue subject to market conditions...

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TME (Trans): Agile amid intense competition, prioritizing shareholder returns

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On Mar 17 (Beijing time), after the HK close and ahead of the US pre-market, $Tencent Music(TME.US) released its Q4 2025 results. Q4 was a mixed bag. The 'second curve' kept gaining traction, but an unstable user ecosystem slowed subscription revenue growth, so Dolphin Research’s overall read is cautious.1) Users kept slipping. MAU fell by 23 mn QoQ in Q4, a bit worse than typical seasonal attrition. Over a longer horizon, the trend remains down.We think the company may ramp up user acquisition spend. This could include initiatives after regulatory approval of the Ximalaya acquisition...

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TME: Qishui's Blitz, Are the Good Days Over?---

TME 4Q25 First Take: Q4 was mixed. The bright spot was non-subscription music adjacencies, which sustained high growth and helped revenue and profit come in slightly above estimates. That said, user metrics were shaky and subscription growth decelerated, leaving Dolphin Research with a cautious take. 1) User ecosystem: MAUs fell by 23 mn QoQ, a larger drop than typical seasonal churn. Over a longer horizon, the trend remains down, and we would not rule out higher spend to drive acquisition. 2) Subscription growth slowed: Subscription revenue growth eased to 13% in Q4 from 16% in Q3. Net adds were 1.7 mn, a bit higher QoQ. ARPU was flat QoQ. 3) Adjacencies delivered high growth: Other music adjacencies, mainly digital albums and offline concerts, rose 41% YoY. Growth remains robust and an important contributor. 4) Cost control: GPM improved slightly by ~100 bps YoY and QoQ, reflecting economies of scale. Core OP reached RMB 2.6 bn (+26%), slightly ahead of expectations. Opex stayed stable, and we are watching S&amp;M closely as a signal of competitive posture. For Q4 specifically, we did not see a notable ramp in marketing spend. Given ongoing MAU declines and aggressive moves by rivals, we would not rule out increased promo spend to boost acquisition and slow churn. Look to management’s earnings call for the forward strategy, including whether they will stay focused or pursue fresh expansion. $Tencent Music(TME.US)

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In the prior piece, Dolphin Research reviewed Meitu's history, product suite, and competitive landscape in depth. This follow-up focuses on Meitu's growth potential.1) Will large models eat Meitu's lunch? To evaluate its growth, we must ask how vertical platforms defend against general-purpose platforms.As seen across internet cycles, a few lucky players evolved into 'small but mighty' vertical champions. Tencent Music, Kanzhun, and even Bilibili endure thanks to distinctive attributes. Most others faded into the background, becoming stepping stones as tech giants broadened their ecosystems...

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The following are the minutes of the FY25Q3 earnings call for $TENCENT(00700.HK) compiled by Dolphin Research. For an interpretation of the earnings report, please refer to the article &#34;Tencent: Not Playing Heartbeat with Meta, Just Wanting Steady Happiness.&#34; 1. Review of Core Financial Information 1. Capital Expenditure: Operating capital expenditure: RMB 12 billion, down 18% year-on-year, mainly due to changes in the supply chain. Non-operating capital expenditure: RMB 1 billion, down 59% year-on-year. 2. Free Cash Flow: RMB 58.5 billion, roughly flat compared to the same period last year (growth in operating cash flow was offset by other factors)...

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Tencent (Minutes): Emphasizes AI, but Lowers Full-Year Capex Guidance

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1113 ｜Dolphin Research Key Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. Trump signed a temporary federal government funding bill passed by both houses of Congress at the White House, ending the longest federal government shutdown in history that lasted 43 days. In the short term, it can restart federal services, issue back pay to employees, alleviate the impact on people's livelihood such as aviation delays and welfare interruptions, and resume the release of economic data to stabilize market expectations. However, the bill is only a temporary solution and does not address core differences such as healthcare subsidies and the remaining 9 annual appropriations, so there is still a risk of a shutdown after January 30...

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Alibaba's 'Qianwen' plans to revamp to catch up with ChatGPT; Baidu's Kunlun Chip Supernode unveiled | Today's Important News Recap

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The following are the minutes of Tencent Music's 3Q25 earnings conference call organized by Dolphin Research. For financial report interpretation, please refer to &#34;With ByteDance's Efforts, Can Tencent Music Still Be 'Small and Beautiful'?&#34; 1. Review of Core Financial Information: 1. Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) reported a 21% year-on-year increase in total revenue for the third quarter of 2025, reaching RMB 8.5 billion, marking the highest growth rate since the first quarter of 2021. This was driven by the continued growth of the music subscription business, strong performance in offline concerts, advertising services, and sales of artist-related merchandise. 2. Online music revenue increased by 27% year-on-year to RMB 7 billion...

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Tencent Music (Minutes): Subscription growth slightly slowed, short-term investments impact profitability

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On November 12th, after the Hong Kong stock market closed and before the U.S. stock market opened, $Tencent Music(TME.US) $TME-SW(01698.HK) (TME.N; $TME-SW(1698.HK)) released its third-quarter financial report for 2025. Overall, the results exceeded expectations, particularly with the partial realization of the second growth curve narrative. However, there were flaws, as the net increase in subscriptions continued to slow, indirectly confirming market concerns about intensified competition before the earnings report. Currently, there remains a significant difference between the core users of Tencent Music and ByteDance (Tencent Music vs ByteDance = high-tier music essential users vs lower-tier Douyin catchy tune users)...

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ByteDance makes a push, can Tencent Music still be 'small and beautiful'?

Tencent Music Launches New Ticketing Platform 'Goose Ticket'

Dolby Labs and Tencent Music Partner to Introduce Dolby AC-4 for Enhanced Audio Experience on QQ Music

Eastern Securities Maintains Buy Rating on Tencent Music Group A Shares

Jay Chou's New Album Sales Exceed 100 Million RMB

Dolby Laboratories and Tencent Music Collaborate to Enhance Dolby Atmos Experience

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Maintains Buy Rating on Tencent Music A Shares

FactSet: Tencent Music Entertainment Group ADR target price median cut to 16.1 USD

Jay Chou's New Album 'Children of the Sun' Begins Pre-sale

Morgan Stanley and Benchmark Downgrade Tencent Music's Stock Rating and Target Price

TME Reports 2025 Q3 Financial Results

Mizuho Securities Downgrades TME's Target Price to $23

CICC 下调 Tencent Music 2026 年净利润预测及目标价

Nomura: TME Q4 2022 Better Than Expected, But 2026 Guidance Below Estimates

Citi Downgrades TME ADS Price Target to $15

TME Reports Lower Than Expected Q4 Earnings, Shares Hit 52-Week Low

Tencent Music released FY2025 Q4 earnings on March 17 Pre-Market (EST), actual revenue USD 1.235 B (forecast USD 1.204 B), actual EPS USD 0.2033 (forecast USD 0.2029)

Tencent Music released FY2025 earnings on March 17 Pre-Market (EST), actual revenue USD 4.612 B (forecast USD 4.672 B), actual EPS USD 0.9979 (forecast USD 1.0091)

Tencent Music Reports Steady Earnings Growth

Tencent Music to Release FY2025 Q4 Earnings on March 17, 2026 Pre-Market EST, Forecast Revenue USD 1.222 B, EPS USD 0.2057

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Ordinary dividend (cash)

Ex Date: 2026.04.02 (EST), Cash dividend 0.24 USD

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (01698.HK, TME.US) Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Performance for 2025

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Tencent Music Entertainment Group (01698.HK, TME.US) 2024 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call

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