TSLA250613C320000.US

I’ve said all along that $Tesla(TSLA.US) would solve for unsupervised autonomy, and with the launch of Cybercab it’s clear they have. My caution has always been that a handful of others would also achieve unsupervised autonomy within 18-24 months and with $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Baidu(BIDU.US), $Pony AI(PONY.US), $WeRide(WRD.US), and $Amazon(AMZN.US) now completing over 1 million paid unsupervised autonomous rides per week without safety monitors, that prediction also looks accurate.

To be clear, TSLA’s autonomous technology is nothing short of amazing and I believe TSLA robotaxi will continue to expand to markets beyond Austin. Over the next few years, I believe “self-driving” will become the preferred ride option on $Uber Tech(UBER.US) and other ride hailing apps, and multiple providers will offer vehicles to fill it.

IMHO $Tesla(TSLA.US) ‘s stock, which finished Friday at a 2026 P/E of 213x and 2027 P/E of 158x, remains extended vs WS’ predictions of +35% long term earnings growth (6.3x and 4.4x PEG respectively). For perspective, the avg Mag 8 stock ex-TSLA trades at a C2026 PEG of 2.7x forward long-term earnings growth. Whether TSLA stock can deliver outperformance after underperforming NDX and SPX significantly YTD and the past one, three, and five years depends on the outcomes to these three questions:

1/ How quickly can TSLA safely scale up Robotaxi so that it becomes a meaningful % of TSLA earnings?

2/ How quickly can competitors repeat what happened in EVs from 2021-2023 and copy TSLA’s autonomous technology such that unsupervised autonomy becomes a commodity?

3/ What is the likely safety profile of TSLA robotaxi as it expands from geofenced Austin to other U.S. cities and to Europe and Asia?

Here’s my ask: Rather than $Tesla(TSLA.US) influencers who call me childish names for remaining cautious and being right on TSLA stock to date try answering these three questions. Let’s move the discussion forward.

NHTSA needs a wake-up call.

The agency rained on the $Tesla(TSLA.US) Cybercab launch by opening a probe into Tesla’s self-certification — specifically whether a vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals meets federal safety standards.

Question for NHTSA: why slow the rollout of autonomous vehicles when the best data we have says they’re 7-10x safer than human drivers? I suspect the answer is the march of nines.

With all due respect, NHTSA needs to update the rules written for human drivers and move faster. About 37k people died on U.S. roads last year. If robotaxis delivered even a 7x cut in fatalities, that number would be closer to 5k.

Source: Gene Munster

Many $Tesla(TSLA.US) retail investors continue to make three common mistakes:

1/ Loving the company doesn’t mean you should love the stock.

2/ Valuation matters. A stock at 220x forward earnings and growing at 35%/year is way more expensive than one at 20x earnings and growing at +15%/year.

3/ Don’t rely on management’s promises for your research. Do a 360 degree research review before investing: Customers, competitors, suppliers, company itself.

Contrary to what some on X think, I don’t hate TSLA. I like the company’s core businesses (EVs, autonomy). As I’ve said since we exited TSLA in May 2025, I don’t like the valuation of the stock.