The incentive structure behind Coherent talking about moving into 300mm SiC is the following, and it's not good:
For years, the Western SiC industry argued that China couldn't compete in 150mm SiC wafers. The moat was supposedly decades of SiC experience, crystal-growth know-how, defect control and, ultimately, yields.Then Chinese suppliers flooded the market with 150mm SiC wafers.So the narrative shifted to 200mm.Sure, China could make 150mm wafers, but could it do so with sufficiently low defect density, uniformity and yields to compete commercially on 200mm wafers?And then, in a shorter amount of time than expected, Chinese wafer suppliers like TankeBlue and SICC achieved competitive 200mm SiC wafers.So now Coherent is talking up their book; new 300m SiC wafers.That makes sense strategically: as Chinese suppliers move up the wafer-size curve, Western suppliers need to establish the next layer of differentiation and justify a price premium.But there is an important wrinkle. The emerging datacenter/HVDC opportunity may actually be more vulnerable to Chinese competition than automotive EV’s.Why? HVDC power applications are industrial-grade, with lower qualification barriers than automotive traction inverters for EV's.In other words, one of the markets expected to drive the next wave of SiC demand may also be one where Chinese suppliers can enter more easily. That makes the need for Western SiC suppliers to establish a real technological and economic moat even more important.The question is whether 300mm provides that moat - or whether, once again, the industry is simply moving the goalposts in an attempt to stay relevant.$Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Wolfspeed(WOLF.US)@lithos_graphein thoughts?Source: Chips & Wafers
