Longbridge HK, US stocks community

Many factors that tell the narrative that if the market will hike rates and triple witching then markets most likely drop more. However, will the general market be a drop then rebound next week or more selling gets more selling pressure due to it being in negative gamma flip line? Don't rush, don't predict. Chill and sit out if the market is too rushed for you(myself) included.

Please see my daily pre-mkt summary on my assessment of elevated oil prices caused by Saudi Arabia’s closure of their East-West pipeline, which has driven Brent crude to $105/bbl and caused 10-year treasury yields to spike to 5.05%, its highest level since 2007. This has led value stocks to significantly outperform growth stocks (+20.9% vs +2.7% respectively YTD) with long duration growth stocks like $Tesla(TSLA.US) impacted most. Money markets now see a 92% chance of a Fed hike (first hike since July 2023) tomorrow following the two-day Fed meeting.

$VG S&P 500(VOO.US)

Context: The S&P 500 dipped slightly below $700 today as markets digest shifting bond yields and macroeconomic data. Valuations are cooling off from recent highs, turning intraday weakness into an appealing accumulation window for long-term core index allocations.

My trade: Looking to add / Prepared limit orders — I am keeping cash ready to execute my regular dollar-cost averaging tranches, placing tiered limit buy orders around the $695–$698 range to scale in at an attractive discount rather than chasing green closes.

Takeaway: Pre-setting limit buy orders in advance capitalizes on brief intraday dips without second-guessing volatile sessions.

$Genting Sing(G13.SG)

Context: Tourism and integrated resort plays in Singapore are consolidating near key support levels, trading slightly below book value while providing solid long-term balance sheet backing.

My trade: Holding my core position in Genting Sing (G13) at an average cost of 0.610 SGD, maintaining a steady gain of +0.81% as an asset-backed dividend generator.

Takeaway: Next time, I will use tiered limit orders to add shares when trading at a discounted book multiple to optimize my long-term entry price.

Wednesday, tomorrow night, is the Federal Reserve going to hike the interest rate ? Is the US market also expected the rate hike ?

$Meta Platforms(META.US)

I bought it at a high but look at the share price now. It is slowly trending back up and should break 700 by year end. Other tech stocks are falling but this cash cow is backed by real earnings growth.

$OCBC Bank(O39.SG)wtf is going on. Why are we dropping

The STI Index continues to fall, albeit the banks leading the way today. OCBC and UOB pulled back as much as 2%+ while DBS fell by 1%. Not too worried as the banks are somehow still up even from comparing with last month. STI Etf could be worth watching 👀

$ELF Beauty(ELF.US)

Context: Since I sold my ELF position on 31 August, the stock has edged slightly lower. Meanwhile, the company continues to highlight growth opportunities through rhode and international expansion.

My trade: I had already exited before these updates, so I’m now watching the developments from the sidelines.

Takeaway: I’m still comfortable with my decision to sell, especially as the stock has declined slightly since then. Of course, ELF could still rebound and rise much further but I’m at peace with potentially missing out on future gains since I would not classify ELF as a company with a durable competitive advantage.

Big Week Ahead With FOMC & BOJ Meetings

If you thought the market tremors earlier this year was intense, this super central bank week could trigger an even sharper selloff.

Cross border Yen borrowing - the ultimate engine of the carry trade balloons to a massive 360 trillion yen or USD 2.35 trillion. Global macro traders have used this incredibly cheap debt to finance riskier, high yielding assets worldwide, especially tech giants.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to aggressively lift its policy rate on Friday to 1.25%. This marks the fastest tightening sequence in half a century. The era of virtually free money in Japan is over.

Fasten our seatbelts. It is going to be a bumpy ride this week.

MONSTROUS MONTH FROM TAIWANESE SERVER ODM'S📈📈

Source: Chips & Wafers

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

POST for 16/9/26

1️⃣After my last added purchase on 8/9 and also added 5 x NVDA 2 x Long ETF on 4/9. Initially benefited from continued optimism around AI infra spending and strong long term demand for its GPUs. However volatility increased as investors became more sensitive to valuation, interest rates and the sustainability of AI spending. Leveraged ETFs amplified these swings, causing larger gains and losses than the underlying NVDA stock.

2️⃣ A global selloff hit AI related stocks after AI industry leaders publicly supported slowing frontier AI development due to safety concerns. Investors feared a potential slowdown in AI spending causing NVDA and other semis stocks to fall about 3% to 6% while broader tech markets weakened.

3️⃣ I remain constructive on NVDA cause AI adoption is still in its early stages. NVDA retains leadership in AI chips, CUDA software, networking and data Center infra. Even if AI safety initiatives moderate the pace of development, demand for compute, training, inference, robotics, and sovereign AI projects should continue growing. Short term sentiment may fluctuate but the long term AI trend still support NVDA’s growth story.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Is the “AI slowdown” narrative really bearish?

I’ve been thinking about the recent comments from Anthropic’s CEO about slowing down AI development.

And I have to say… I’m not completely buying the way the market is interpreting it.

The safety concerns may well be genuine. But I also can’t ignore the incentives.

If you’re already one of the companies at the frontier of AI, slowing things down — or making the regulatory hurdles higher — doesn’t necessarily hurt you. In fact, it could make life much harder for everyone trying to catch up.

That’s also why I found it interesting that Elon Musk $Tesla(TSLA.US)agreed.

Maybe I’m being cynical 😂, but when competitors suddenly agree that everyone should slow down, one of the first questions I ask is:

Who benefits?

For me, the bigger question as an investor is whether anything has actually changed in the AI infrastructure story.

Are hyperscalers cutting capex?

Are accelerator orders being cancelled?

Is demand for networking, memory, storage or power starting to weaken?

If the answer is no, then I’m not sure a few comments about slowing AI development automatically mean the AI investment cycle is slowing too.

For now, I see this more as a narrative shock than a thesis break.

And perhaps there’s another possibility:

Slower model development could actually mean more spending on inference, safety, testing and infrastructure before the next generation gets released.

That’s the part I’m watching.

What do you think? Genuine concern, strategic positioning… or a bit of both? 😂

@Captain Leo