TSMC's excellent financial result supports the positive AI trend. However, concerns remain regarding the shipment of Nvidia's GB200 NVL72. 

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

TSMC's excellent financial result supports the positive AI trend. However, concerns remain regarding the shipment of Nvidia's GB200 NVL72.

It might seem contradictory, but it's not. The key lies in TSMC's advanced nodes, a scarce resource highly sought by all global customers. Therefore, short-term underperformance of a single customer or product isn't likely to significantly impact TSMC's business momentum. On the contrary, TSMC often outperforms the industry average. For example, TSMC's smartphone revenue grew by around 23% YoY in 2024, while global smartphone sales grew by only about 4% YoY.

Let's review my previous key predictions. The source materials below include TSMC's earnings call and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's interview with the media in Taichung, Taiwan (Chinese):

1. TSMC doesn't cut CoWoS and continues expanding production capacity.
   https://money.udn.com/money/story/11162/8495582…
   
2. Nvidia's product line will switch from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L.
   https://technews.tw/2025/01/16/blackwell-cowos-l/…
   
3. The GB200 design is complex, presenting initial engineering challenges.
   https://money.udn.com/money/story/11162/8495524…
   

The above is consistent with my previous predictions:

1. I predicted TSMC would confirm its CoWoS expansion is everything proceeding as planned (consistent with TSMC's statement) and that Nvidia's product roadmap indicates a shift from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L.
   https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/26620453
   
2. I pointed out that Nvidia has not cut orders, but there's low visibility on GB200 NVL72 shipments, and I analyzed the reasons why.
   https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/26596284