
I’m pleasantly surprised by $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) ‘s +6% pre-mkt reaction since Judge Mehta was not expected to force GOOG to divest Chrome despite finding in his 2024 ruling that GOOG had engaged in monopolistic behavior: 1/ As Judge Mehta referenced repeatedly in his decision, GOOG global search share has dropped in recent years from as high as 90%, as AI chatbots have gained significant share; making future monopolistic behavior less likely; 2/ The bar for breaking up a company on Sherman Act anti-trust grounds is extremely high; not since 1984 in the ATT case has a judge broken up a U.S. company for monopolistic behavior; 3/ Judge Mehta applied two other remedies that should thwart future monopolistic behavior by Google: a/ A ban on exclusive distribution agreements, while allowing non-exclusive deals including payments for preloading or preferential placement; and b/ Google must share certain non-proprietary data with "qualified competitors" (e.g., search engines like Bing or AI firms like OpenAI) on "ordinary commercial terms" consistent with its existing syndication services.
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