
In today’s pre-market summary for Subscribers: Risk-off sentiment intensified as the Middle East conflict entered its fourth day with no end in sight. Stocks fell sharply with long-duration names hit hardest. Brent crude surged to $83/bbl, pushing 10-year Treasury yields to 4.09%. Precious metals and #bitcoin declined. We view this volatility as temporary; historical parallels (e.g., 2021-2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis) suggest oil prices will retreat once the conflict ends. Weak Feb non-farm payrolls Friday (+60K expected) could boost Fed rate-cut odds, although the Fed will have to balance that against the likely surge in inflation expectations caused by the Iran conflict. We expect equities to reclaim highs backed by strong 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth to $310 (+12% YoY), implying a fair 22.2x forward P/E and 4.5% earnings yield versus ~4% 10-year TYs. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) (no position) due to declining 2026-2030 EPS estimates, the rapid democratization of unsupervised autonomy by competitors already logging 850K paid autonomous rides/week without safety monitors, and a stretched valuation (2026 P/E ~200x vs +40% LT growth = 5x PEG).
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.

