Gary Black Tracker
2026.03.09 09:57

In today’s pre-mkt summary for Subscribers: Stocks fell but pared losses after reports of potential G7 coordinated strategic petroleum reserve releases, last done in 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine oil crisis. Brent crude surged to $105/bbl amid the escalating Middle East conflict and effective Strait of Hormuz closure, driving a sharp risk-off sentiment with the VIX spiking to 32. 10y yields rose while gold and silver fell modestly. Tomorrow’s Feb CPI print (pre-conflict data) will be overshadowed by next week’s FOMC meeting and updated dot plot, as investors increasingly fear stagflation from sustained high oil prices amid slowing job growth. We view the current oil shock as akin to the temporary 2022 Russia-Ukraine spike rather than a lasting supply disruption. We expect equities to reclaim new highs once the conflict de-escalates, oil retreats, and Fed rate-cut odds rise. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) given declining 2026-2030 estimates, extended valuation (~200x 2026 P/E), and increasing competition in unsupervised autonomy from $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Baidu(BIDU.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US), and others already scaling paid rides without safety monitors.

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