AMAT guided its semi equipment revenue will grow at least 20% in FY26. With China down, most of it has to come from leading-edge logic and DRAM/HBM. AMAT's TSMC revenue will likely see a good jump in FY26, driven by TSMC's capacity expansion across FinFET and GAA nodes. TSMC is an important customer (19%) for AMAT. Each cycle's trough is now higher than the prior cycle's peak. FY18 trough roughly flat vs FY13 peak. FY24 trough > FY17 peak.
Source: Sravan Kundojjala
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