Chips and Wafers’ Lover
Nanya 3Q26
- Legacy DRAM tightness proxy at 85.7% GM- Revenue up 60% q/q and 566% y/y to $4.18B (4.9x the 3Q21 prior-cycle peak ($856M))- LTAs cover 50-70% of output; 3-year contracts are >20%- One quarter of revenue is now 2.1x FY23 ($958M) plus FY24 ($1.06B) combined and 1.9x all of FY25 ($2.16B). First 9 months of CY26 revenue is $8.3B- Price alone drove growth. ASP up >60% q/q while bit shipments down MSD q/qSource: Sravan Kundojjala
Prices for advanced semiconductor testing are set to rise 10% - 30% as supply falls far short of demand, media report, calling upcoming price increases ‘the strongest in history.’ Chip testing times continue to lengthen as chips become more complex and demand booms as Cloud giants launch their own AI chips. Testing prices for rush orders for smaller clients have doubled, the report says, adding that ASE, KYEC, PTI and Ardentec are all benefitting from stronger pricing. $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US) $Teradyne(TER.US) $Formfactor(FORM.US) $Cohu(COHU.US) #BESI #Advantest #TokyoElectron #ChromaATE
Source: Dan Nystedt
Formosa Plastics is eyeing Texas for a major expansion in US semiconductor-related chemical production to supply TSMC and other US-based clients, media report, citing company Chairman WB Kuo. The company already operates a petrochemical mega-site in Texas. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #semiconductors #FormosaPlastics #supplychain
Source: Dan Nystedt
ASML, AMAT, Lam and KLA are all engaged in Terafab project. SpaceX will spend $3B+ on pilot line and $16.8B on 1st Phase high volume fab. KLA could play a critical role in Terafab's early ramp (inspection and metrology tools) to tackle process defects and accelerate yield learning.
Source: Sravan Kundojjala
Taiwan AI power supply giant Lite-On Technology has inked a US$350 million (NT$11.06B) contract for construction of its plant in McKinney, Texas, aimed at high-voltage DC power racks and AI infrastructure production, media report, adding the contract is part of a US$919 million plan approved by Lite-On’s board in April. Lite-On’s 2026 capex plan is now NT$18 billion, versus NT$7 billion last year. #Texas #AI #liteon
Source: Dan Nystedt
The start of Nvidia Vera Rubin server production, mass Blackwell GB300 and B300 server production are fueling record high revenue at AI server giant Wistron, and AMD CEO Lisa Su’s recent visit to a new Wistron plant (Zhubei A1) point to continued strength with Helios server orders as well, media report.
Wistron’s 3rd quarter revenue rose 102.4% year-on-year to an all-time-high NT$1.15 trillion, while January thru September revenue hit NT$2.9 trillion, up 97.3%. September revenue rose 87.2% to NT$380.81 billion. Wistron again beat out rival Quanta Computer for 2nd place in quarterly revenue among Taiwan AI server makers. Foxconn is No. 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US)Source: Dan Nystedt
Fragmented customer landscape is good for semicaps. Two years ago, TSMC dependency emerged as a concern for suppliers (Intel/memory weakness). But things took a different turn with fragmented leading-edge foundry landscape (five leading-edge players outside China now) and growing influence of memory and packaging houses. A larger customer base means better profit margins, as no single customer has outsized bargaining power.
Source: Sravan Kundojjala
MediaTek's 3rd quarter revenue hit a record high NT$168.06 billion, up 18.2% year-on-year and up 10.2% over the 2nd quarter, media report, also exceeding the top end of guidance (NT$159.8B).
MediaTek is benefitting from the launch of two powerful smartphone chips, Dimensity 9600M, made on TSMC 3nm, and Dimensity 9600 Pro, made on TSMC 2nm.The company has said it expects global smartphone shipments to fall around 15% this year, but its business has been boosted by new work in custom ASIC design. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) #mediatek #semiconductorsSource: Dan Nystedt
TSMC supplier Gudeng Precision will begin operations at its first USA plant in Glendale, Arizona in the 4th quarter to supply semiconductor equipment to TSMC and other clients, as well as produce aerospace-related products, media report, adding Gudeng executives said Arizona has complete industrial clusters in both sectors. Gudeng’s top chip-related products include wafer carriers, advanced packaging carriers. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #semiconductors #Arizona
Source: Dan Nystedt
Taiwan's semiconductor exports in September rose 46.1% year-on-year to US$29.74 billion, raising January thru September to $220.0B, up 47.3%, and leading Taiwan exports to an all-time high for a single month in September.
Overall exports rose 60.9% to $87.22 billion, led by expanding AI-related business opportunities and strong sales in the traditional peak season for technology goods, media report, while imports also hit a record high, rising 51.7% to $63.59 billion.IT and Audio/visual exports rose 103% to $39.13 billion, a category that includes AI servers, general servers, PCs, and graphics cards, while electronics component exports, including semiconductors, rose 45.3% to $31.13B $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US)Source: Dan Nystedt
People don't realize what's happening at the OSATs right now.
In 9 months of 2026, Taiwanese OSATs have placed ~$11B of equipment orders, more than 2019–2025 COMBINED. Q3 alone was a record $4.6B.Source: Chips & Wafers
Taiwanese ABF names on a tear🔥
Up +53% YoY in September, +34% YTD.Not stopping anytime soon.Source: Chips & Wafers
TSMC September Monthly & 3Q26
- Sep revenue up 0.3% M/M and 48.1% Y/Y to $16.133B- First 9 months of revenue > total CY25 revenue- 7th straight all-time high and the 8th of 9 months in 2026- Sep has averaged -1.3% M/M over 2021-25; so this beat 3 of the last 5 Sep- 33 straight months of Y/Y growth (since Jan ’24)- Sep was 34.5% of the quarter, the highest share since 2021Source: Sravan Kundojjala
TSMC’s 3rd quarter revenue rose to a record high NT$1.49 trillion (US$46.70B), beating the top end of guidance ($45.8 billion), on strong demand for AI chip production.
The prior record was NT$1.27 trillion from the 2nd quarter this year.TSMC did not announce Q3 revenue. The figure is based on July-September monthly revenue. 1/3 $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) #semiconductors #semiconductorSource: Dan Nystedt
Marvell's revenue will grow from $8B in CY25 to $12B in CY26, $20B in CY27 and $80B by CY30 ($70-$90B mid point). For comparison, Qualcomm's semiconductor business is 3x bigger than Marvell in CY26 but will be $60B by FY29 and unless huge growth happens they will be smaller company than Marvell in CY30.
On the COGS side Marvell's COGS will grow from $4B in CY25 to $34B by CY30. Marvell says foundry partners now ask for 5 yr forecasts and it's comfortable with $80B revenue forecast. Huge jump in COGS means good for foundry and advanced packaging companies.Source: Sravan Kundojjala
UMC’s sales in September rose 27.2% to a fresh record high NT$25.35 billion, media report, sending third quarter sales up 25.56% to NT$74.24 billion, the 2nd best quarter ever and a 4-year high. $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) #semiconductors
Source: Dan Nystedt
Taiwan prosecutors have indicted 10 company executives for allegedly re-selling US military-grade chips to China, media report, adding the chips, from Analog Devices and Texas Instruments, are used in a range of military hardware. Charges include fraud, forgery and money laundering. Prosecutors are seeking one to ten year sentences for the executives. $Analog Devices(ADI.US) $Texas Instruments(TXN.US) #semiconductors
Source: Dan Nystedt
Taiwan chip packaging firms Winstek Semi and Sigurd Micro both forecast strong 2027 sales due to AI-related demand, and Winstek more than doubled 2026 capex, media report, citing executives at a quarterly conference on Monday. Sigurd executives said 2026 capex could be increased soon.
Winstek: NT$13.427 billion vs NT$5.648 billion previouslySigurd: NT$8.8 billion unchanged #semiconductorsSource: Dan Nystedt
Synopsys thinks it's hard for AI to displace its moat in foundry sign-off. This is an area strongly protected by EDA incumbents Synopsys and Cadence. Startups couldn't break this foundry interface moat.
Source: Sravan Kundojjala
After recent #HBM despec news, Disco ($6416.TYO) has been a very popular Short. But it's a dangerous one:
Source: Chips & Wafers
Micron profitability HBM vs non-HBM
- Driven by pricing strength in conventional memory, Micron's Mobile & Client GM outperformed Cloud Memory (HBM) for the 3rd consecutive quarter. 79% vs 74% in Q2, 87% vs 83% in Q3, and 90% vs 83% in Q4 FY26.- Higher prices and a richer mix boosted Mobile & Client revenue by 14% q/q despite lower bit shipments. - HBM contracts have lagged the pricing cycle. Micron’s 2026 HBM prices were negotiated in 2025, and higher HBM mix held Cloud Memory GM flat at 83% in Q4.- 2027 should change the economics. Micron claims to have secured substantially higher HBM prices that kickoff at the start of CY27, likely helping it narrow the profitability gap with conventional DRAM.Source: Sravan Kundojjala
TSMC Revenue vs Fabless inventory
- Non-Nvidia fabless inventory stands at $0.99 for every $1 of TSMC quarterly revenue, down one-third from the 2Q23 glut peak of $1.49. Nvidia’s $31.6B of inventory alone drives the ratio to the $1.78 peak.- The ex-Nvidia ratio has only just reached the level of the 2021 shortage. It bottomed at $0.81 in 3Q25 and during 2021-22 it held at $1-$1.2 for six quarters before the correction began.- TSMC growth keeps making room. TSMC revenue is up 34% y/y, so non-Nvidia inventory can keep growing about that fast without the ratio rising. The ratio only goes up when inventory growth beats TSMC growth, as it did at 56% vs 34% in 2Q26.- The ex-Nvidia inventory build is early in its cycle. Its inventory growth went from 15% to 56% y/y in three quarters, a similar path to 2021. That cycle ran another four to five quarters, and grew about 45% more in dollars, before it peaked. The current cycle has room.Source: Sravan Kundojjala
Rumor: TSMC plans to build a 2nd semiconductor manufacturing campus in the USA, with Dallas, Texas seen as a contender for six fabs, media report, citing chip equipment makers. The move is aimed at satisfying demand from customers for USA production, and reducing supply chain risks, the report says, adding TSMC declined comment. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) #semiconductors
Source: Dan Nystedt
NXP Semiconductors and joint venture partner Vanguard (VIS) held a grand opening ceremony for their first 12-inch fab in Singapore on Monday, media report, with executives saying a 2nd fab may be announced by end-2026 due to strong demand. The 44,000 wafers per month capacity in the first fab has already been booked, while AI related demand has already filled most mature-process 8-inch fabs, said VIS Chairman Leuh Fang, making further investment likely.
The new Singapore operation, called VisionPower Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (VSMC) will use significant capacity for silicon interposers due to a shortage of the material critical to TSMC’s CoWoS advanced semiconductor packaging, media say. $NXP Semiconductors(NXPI.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #Vanguard #semiconductorsSource: Dan Nystedt
John Lau's presentation on glass core substrates included a fascinating contrarian take on what glass should actually be optimized for 🧵
Source: Chips & Wafers
