Thoughts going into $Apple(AAPL.US) earnings.
Expectations:Expectations are modest given over the past one month, AAPL has underperformed the Mag 7 and Nasdaq.Past month performance: Nasdaq up 17%.GOOG: 34% AMZN: 28% NVDA: 19% META: 13% MSFT: 11% AAPL: 10% TSLA: 2%* Over the past three months, AAPL is up 4.5% vs. Nasdaq up 5%.March Quarter:➡️The Street is expecting iPhone to be up 20.6% YoY. I expect 22% based on China. ➡️Services growth expectations of 14% should be in line. ➡️Gross margins should be in line with the Street at 48.4%.June Guide➡️I expect guidance for June to call for 10–12% YoY growth. The Street is at 9%. I believe the difference is iPhone.➡️I expect them to talk down margins by 50bps q/q, The Street is looking for a 80bps decline to 47.6%.Key Topics of the Call➡️Margins: How will the component environment impact margins in the back half? Last quarter, Cook said changes are likely and it’s too early to determine the impact. The Street is modeling for gross margin to decline from 48.4% in March to 47.6% in June and 47.4% in September. I think they have that right.➡️Ternus is the upside case: Can Ternus start to convince investors that he will bring new AI innovation, and when will we see those products? If successful, AAPL multiple will go up. ➡️AI: Any updates on the new Siri (aka Apple’s AI chops), which is expected to be previewed at WWDC. Timing of the rollout and how they plan on making money from it.Source: Gene Munster
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